Main views of overseas markets in a week: the US stock market rebounded this week. In the information technology industry, apple, Google, Broadcom, Texas Instruments, applied materials, feita, l3harris technologies, gaozhite technology, Peiqi, arista network, HP, Gartner, monolithic power systems, Huihe, American online storage and Zhanbo network increased significantly in the early stage and the valuation was not fully digested; In the biotechnology industry, EBV, Eli Lilly, United Health Group, Bristol Myers Squibb, regenerative yuan pharmaceutical, Maxon, Meiyuan Bergen and Henry Shane services increased significantly in the early stage and had no obvious valuation advantage; In the industrial industry, UPS, UPS The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) , Raytheon technology, Deere, Northrop Grumman, general dynamics, Parker Hannifin, United Leasing, Quanta Services, Jacobs engineering, Textron, iron mountain, Robert Haff and other early increases are too large and the valuation pressure has not been significantly digested; In the financial industry, berkshire-b, Wells Fargo Bank, Jiaxin wealth management, Morgan Stanley, American Express, Chubb insurance, Aon insurance, MetLife, AIG, Prudential finance, American family life insurance, allstar insurance, Ruijie finance, manufacturer and trader bank, Cincinnati finance, Los Angeles insurance, Lianxin bank, Chion bank and people’s United finance increased significantly in the early stage and their valuations were high; Among the non essential consumer industries, the early growth of dollar tree, O’Reilly automobile, automobile belt, tractor supply and epex was too large, and the valuation pressure was not fully released; Among the essential consumer industries, Coca Cola, market opener, PepsiCo, sivis health, Archer Daniels Midland, Hershey, corteva, Kroger, Homer food and other short-term increases are large, and the valuation does not have obvious advantages; In the real estate industry, the short-term growth of Volkswagen warehouse trust, welltower trust, Efron Bay community, fair housing, Essex trust and Boston real estate is too large and there is a certain pressure on valuation; The short-term valuation advantages of American power industry such as China Electric, Minnesota electric and Sunderland electric are not obvious; It is expected that the information technology stocks, biotechnology stocks, industrial stocks, financial stocks, essential consumer stocks, non essential consumer stocks, real estate stocks and public utility stocks, which have a large increase in the middle and early stage of the US stock market and have certain valuation pressure, will still fluctuate for some time in the future. Given that the current valuation of the US stock market is still high, the liquidity of the federal reserve tends to be further tightened, and the yield of US bonds superimposed with 7-year, 10-year, 3-year and 5-year maturities has been inverted. It is expected that the US stock market has not stabilized at this stage. The European market fluctuated higher this week. Considering that the European market is vulnerable to the linkage impact of the US stock market and the cumulative increase at the beginning of this round of economic cycle, it is expected that the European market will fluctuate for some time in the future. Considering that the liquidity of the federal reserve tends to be further tightened, it is expected that the stock bond exchange of overseas emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and Latin America will still be vulnerable to impact in the future. There was a correction in the stock concept in the middle of this week; The medium and long-term trend of China concept stock is still closely related to some objective factors. It is suggested to continuously track the changes of relevant policies of China concept stock. The Hong Kong stock market fluctuated higher this week. Compared with Hang Seng technology index, the relative volatility of Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng state-owned enterprise index is expected to be low in the future. It is expected that Hang Seng’s H-share financial industry will be resilient in the medium term; Among them, the four major state-owned banks have low volatility and good toughness. Considering the current capital construction cycle, there is a certain resilience in the medium-term of construction engineering, especially the resilience of large state-owned infrastructure related enterprises with less increase in the early stage is relatively good.
Performance of US stock market in one week: all three major US stock indexes rose this week. The S & P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones industrial index rose by 1.79%, 1.98% and 0.31% respectively compared with last week.
Performance of Hong Kong stock market in one week: this week, Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China enterprise index, Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese enterprise index and Hang Seng technology index all fell, with declines of 0.04%, 1.12%, 0.34% and 2.35% respectively.
Important overseas economic data: in March 2022, the initial value of manufacturing PMI in the euro area was 57, lower than 58.2 of the previous value; The initial value of PMI of service industry in the euro area was 54.8, lower than 55.5 of the previous value.
Risk tip: the Fed’s monetary policy exceeded expectations; Economic growth is less than expected; The intensification of global geopolitical risks; Overseas epidemic control is less than expected; Global black swan event.
