Core conclusion
This week, the performance of the Chinese and American markets was divided, and the A shares fell as a whole. The US stock index rose 0.31%, the S & P 500 rose 1.79% and the NASDAQ rose 1.98%. The Chinese market generally adjusted. The Shanghai index fell 1.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.08%, and the gem index fell 2.80%. The cumulative net outflow of funds from the North was 12.8 billion yuan. In terms of industries, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (3.93%), real estate (3.84%) and comprehensive (3.13%) led the increase; Computers (- 4.10%), electrical equipment (- 4.05%) and building materials (- 3.72%) led the decline.
At present, the epidemic situation is still the marginal factor leading the market. From the perspective of China, although the recent epidemic situation in some areas is still repeated, especially the number of asymptomatic infections in Shanghai is rising rapidly, with the continuous optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures and the continuous improvement of nucleic acid detection and screening rate, it is still uncertain that the epidemic situation can be effectively controlled. In the A-share market after China’s epidemic in 2020, we can also see that the inflection point of the market is earlier than the inflection point of the epidemic. Although the market has been disturbed by the epidemic recently and has been repeated in the short term, the market can still remain optimistic about the second quarter.
The overseas epidemic still has repeated risks, and the overall market impact is limited, but it is expected to grow structurally. Since March this year, with the continuous liberalization of overseas epidemic prevention measures, the recent ba With the spread of 2 variants, the overseas epidemic showed signs of rebound, with an average of nearly 1.6 million new confirmed cases worldwide on the 7th. In the past two years, overseas epidemics often show the characteristics of periodic recurrence during the western traditional holidays. With the approach of the Easter holiday in April, the probability of a new wave of epidemics overseas in the future is rising significantly. We reviewed the impact of the overseas epidemic on US stocks in 2020. On the whole, the impact of the epidemic on the stock market showed a gradual weakening trend. During the first three outbreaks in June 2020, September 2020 and July 2021, the growth sectors of Chinese and American stocks and A-Shares significantly outperformed the value sectors, while the epidemic was not the core concern of the market when the epidemic recurred for the fourth time in November 2021. From the current point of view, the growth sector of China and the United States still has high linkage. If the overseas epidemic repeats in the future, it will lead to the correction of economic and liquidity expectations, which is expected to boost the sentiment of the A-share growth sector.
Sino US relations are advancing in twists and turns, and the “neck” in the field of science and technology in China forces China’s industrial upgrading. After the recent first and second meeting between China and the US dollar, the US side resumed tariff exemption for some Chinese imports, mainly involving electrical equipment, machinery and appliances, furniture and other categories. On the other hand, the inclusion of China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) and China Mobile in the “security risk list” will also force China’s hard technology industries such as chip semiconductors and high-end equipment to accelerate the pace of industrial upgrading.
Prosperity is still the best defense. With the easing of concerns about the epidemic situation in China and the overall easing of China US relations, structurally, the economic leaders of new energy, semiconductors, medicine and military industry that can be confirmed in the annual report and the first quarter report are expected to usher in phased repair. On the other hand, the necessary consumption sectors such as agriculture, food, textile and clothing benefiting from inflation expectations are still the main focus of the whole year. Along the clues of epidemic repair, offline economic recovery related industries such as social service, retail, catering, shipping and traditional media are ushering in the layout window period.
Risk tip: geopolitical conflicts exceeded expectations, Sino US trade frictions exceeded expectations, and the pace of policy promotion was lower than expected.
