I. overseas markets: many central banks around the world have entered a continuous interest rate increase cycle, and geographical conflicts may exacerbate the risk of deterioration of overseas inflation and economic growth. In March, after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bp, the central banks of Brazil, Egypt, Argentina, the United Kingdom, South Africa and Mexico announced interest rate increases. Powell said that the Fed was prepared to raise interest rates by more than 25bp at a time when necessary to curb inflation. Now the market has expected the probability of raising interest rates by 50bp in May to rise to more than 60%. Geopolitical conflicts and recent macroeconomic policy changes in various countries may exacerbate the uncertainty of the world economic outlook, in which developing economies (except China) may face more pressure. In the trade and development report recently released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and development, the global economic growth forecast for 2022 was lowered from 3.6% to 2.6%.
Second, the local epidemic disturbs economic recovery, and policies still need to take the initiative to deal with it. Since March, the epidemic situation in China has rebounded, the epidemic situation in Shanghai, Jilin Province, Liaoning Province and other places has continued to develop, and the national epidemic situation is still in the critical stage. The macroeconomic data from January to February were better than market expectations, but the recent rebound of China’s local epidemic may restrict the recovery of consumption, and the rise of global commodity prices may have a restraining effect on industrial production. In order to achieve the goal of annual GDP growth of 5.5%, we need to put “steady growth” in a more prominent position, and policies still need to take the initiative to deal with it.
III. taking history as a mirror, how far is the distance between “policy bottom and market bottom”? Looking back on 2018, the “policy bottom” appeared on October 19, 2018, and the lowest point of Shanghai composite index was 2449; The “market bottom” appeared on January 4, 2019, and the lowest point of Shanghai composite index was 2440. “Policy end – market end”, with an interval of about 2.5 months; Spatially, the lowest point of the Shanghai stock index is close. On October 19, 2018, after the stock index fell to a phased low of 2449, there was a round of “oversold” rebound, which lasted about one month, and then the market began to grind the bottom slowly. But looking back, the “policy bottom” of the Shanghai index near 2449 is still a solid bottom, which is a better time for medium and long-term capital to allocate assets.
IV. investment strategy: avoid over optimism and over pessimism in grinding the bottom. After the gold stability meeting held last week, A-Shares came out of a round of oversold rebound. At the current time point, we should dialectically treat the opportunities and risks of a shares. In the process of repeatedly grinding the bottom, we should avoid excessive optimism or pessimism: on the one hand, “stable growth” is still the main line of China’s current policy. Under the monetary policy pattern of “external tightening and internal loosening”, there is still room for China to reduce reserve requirements and interest rates, and the Shanghai index is near Wuxi Boton Technology Co.Ltd(300031) 00 points or a relatively solid bottom; On the other hand, peripheral factors such as the rhythm of the Fed’s interest rate increase and contraction and geographical relations still disturb a shares. It is suggested that investors actively grasp the phased opportunities after the oversold, and beware of the risks after the index rises too much. In terms of industry allocation, pay attention to three main investment lines: first, the marginal relaxation of benefit policies, such as “banking and real estate”; Second, “agriculture and gold” benefiting from inflation expectations; Third, the theme of policy (support) promotion is related to “new energy (photovoltaic, energy storage, hydrogen energy), semiconductor, counting East and west”, etc.
Risk warning: geo risk escalation; The policy strength is less than expected; Repeated outbreaks outside China; Large fluctuations in overseas markets, etc.
