Core summary: policies help stabilize the bottom of the market
Economic fundamentals: repeated global epidemics and rising inflation
The newly confirmed cases of covid-19 in the world stopped falling and rebounded, and the epidemic in Europe rebounded again. Previously, Europe and the United States and other countries began to liberalize entry restrictions, and the United Kingdom, which greatly liberalized its epidemic prevention policy, was relatively more serious. Overseas inflation continues to rise amid geopolitical disputes. In February, the US CPI rose to 7.9% year-on-year, up 0.4pct from the previous month; Oil distribution once rose above $130 / barrel. The epidemic situation in China is repeated, and the economic data has bright spots. The epidemic situation in China broke out point by point, and Jilin, Shanghai, Fujian and Shenzhen were relatively serious; In February, the economic data exceeded market expectations, the manufacturing industry rebounded significantly, and the innovation driven effect was significant; The growth rate of infrastructure investment rebounded significantly to 8.1%.
Liquidity: the Fed's statement is hawkish, and China's policy remains stable
Overseas fed interest rate hikes landed, and the overall statement was hawkish. The interest rate meeting in March announced a 25bp interest rate increase. The dot matrix diagram shows that the interest rate may be increased seven times during the year. The table contraction was started as early as may. At present, the yield of 10Y US bonds has risen to more than 2.3%. China's monetary policy remained stable. In March, both MLF and LPR remained unchanged, and the yield of 10Y treasury bond fluctuated around 2.8%. Equity market liquidity is under pressure. In March, 37.8 billion partial equity funds were newly established, with a cumulative net outflow of 63.6 billion yuan, second only to the global liquidity crisis stage in March 2020. The financing scale of IPO + additional issuance was 66.4 billion yuan and the lifting scale was 413.6 billion yuan, both of which increased compared with the previous month.
Equity allocation strategy: the market continues to grind the bottom and pay attention to the performance direction
Policies help stabilize the bottom of the market. The policy tone will help regain confidence. The marginal changes in China US relations and epidemic prevention policies will further consolidate the policy bottom. The market has entered the bottom grinding stage, and the return on investment in 2022 is expected to be reduced. In the medium term, on the one hand, we should choose industries and companies with high performance boom, on the other hand, we also need to prevent companies with obvious deterioration of fundamentals. Therefore, we suggest paying more attention to the industry sectors and individual stocks with good performance in the first quarter, that is, the stable growth sector (Infrastructure / utilities), the inflation sector (coal / some oil and gas chemicals / non-ferrous metals / Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) etc.) and the subdivided high boom growth sector (photovoltaic).
