This week's view: the 14th five year plan for modern energy system was officially issued
On March 22, the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration issued the modern energy system plan for the 14th Five Year Plan period, which made an overall deployment of China's energy development policies, main objectives, tasks and measures during the 14th Five Year Plan period. China's energy system will accelerate the transformation and upgrading in a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient direction.
Energy security has become more secure and powerful, and the total energy supply has maintained steady growth. According to the objectives set out in the plan, by 2025, China's annual comprehensive energy production capacity will reach more than 4.6 billion tons of standard coal, the annual output of crude oil will rise and stabilize at the level of 200 million tons, the annual output of natural gas will reach more than 230 billion cubic meters, and the total installed capacity of power generation will reach about 3 billion kilowatts. On the whole, China's energy consumption will maintain rigid growth during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and ensuring supply security is the prerequisite for building a modern energy system.
Improve the "dual control" of energy consumption and carbon emission control system, and promote the transformation from "dual control" of energy consumption to "dual control" of total carbon emission and intensity. According to the plan, during the 14th Five Year Plan period, China's carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP / energy consumption per unit of GDP will be reduced by 18% / 13.5% in total, and the reduction range is basically consistent with that during the 13th Five Year Plan period. Different from the 13th five year energy plan, this plan does not propose the total energy consumption control target of the 14th five year plan, and emphasizes again that the new renewable energy and raw material energy will not be included in the total energy consumption control. In order to realize the green and low-carbon transformation of the energy system, this document proposes that the proportion of China's non fossil energy power generation will be further increased to about 39% by 2025, and the proportion of electric energy in terminal energy consumption will reach about 30% by 2025.
We will improve the pattern of energy production and supply and build a modern energy market. The plan points out that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, China's energy transmission pattern will be continuously optimized through the construction of infrastructure such as energy storage and energy transmission channels, so as to orderly promote the power transmission of large clean energy bases and improve China's energy production and supply pattern. In addition, the plan also requires to optimize the market-oriented allocation of energy resources, deepen the market-oriented reform of price formation mechanism, promote China's energy storage facilities, demand side, industrial and commercial users to participate in power market transactions, and build a modern energy market.
Market review of this week: the adjustment range of power equipment sector is large in the 11th week of 2022
This week, the power equipment sector fell 4.0%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.9%, among which the motor sector performed best (- 0.2%), wind power equipment (- 5.5%) and photovoltaic equipment (- 6.3%) performed relatively poorly.
Industrial chain tracking: the prosperity of lithium battery industry chain continues, and the price of photovoltaic industry chain tends to stabilize
Lithium battery: due to the superposition of downstream demand boom and the continuous shortage of some raw materials, the overall price of lithium battery industry chain remained high this week, including the price of Sanyuan 811 cathode material maintained an upward trend, the high price of lithium carbonate in upstream metals stabilized, and the prices of electrolytic nickel and electrolytic cobalt increased.
Photovoltaic: the overall price of photovoltaic industry chain stabilized this week. Driven by the strong demand at home and abroad, the demand for silicon materials is good in the short term, while the new supply lags slightly, and the price of silicon materials remains high. Under the condition of good overall operating rate of the industry, the transaction prices of battery chips and components remained stable this week.
Risk tips: changes in new energy industry policies, supply chain bottlenecks lead to lower than expected demand, intensified market competition leads to decline in industry profitability, etc.
