Looking forward to the first quarter, (1) the manufacturing end is affected by the rise of raw materials, and the pressure of freight and exchange rate has not been relieved, but the upstream is relatively less affected. At present, the upstream manufacturing sector is preferred; (2) Clothing side: the epidemic in March had a significant impact, and e-commerce and franchisees were affected by logistics. At the same time, the high profit base of 21q1 was superimposed, and the impact on the profit side was greater than that on the income side. We estimate that: 1) high-end women’s clothing is greatly affected, and the double-digit decline at the income end; 2) The number of units at the income end of the leisure sector has declined, and the Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) damage with extended store space is relatively small; 3) The single digit income of men’s wear companies fell, and Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) performed better than the peers; 4) The single digit growth of home textile companies, Shenzhen Fuanna Bedding And Furnishing Co.Ltd(002327) performed better than the peers; 5) Camping equipment continued to enjoy a high boom, and there was still a doubling of online growth in Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) 1 and February.
At present, we recommend three main lines: (1) the first quarterly report is expected to exceed expectations: Bros Eastern Co.Ltd(601339) , Zhejiang Xinao Textiles Inc(603889) , Zhejiang Jasan Holding Group Co.Ltd(603558) , Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) , Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) ; (2) Subject matter with limited downward space at the bottom of Valuation: recommended Jinhong Fashion Group Co.Ltd(603518) , Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) ; (3) Growth track and subject less affected by economic slowdown: Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) .
Market review: outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.9pct
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.19%, the gem index fell by 2.79%, and the SW textile and clothing sector rose by 1.71%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.9pct and the gem index by 4.50pct. Among them, SW textile manufacturing rose by 2.22% and SW clothing and home textile rose by 1.45%. At present, the PE of SW textile and clothing industry is 14.41. This week, e-commerce performed best, with an increase of 8.79%; Mother and child children performed the worst, with a decrease of 1.51%.
Market data tracking: China’s cotton price index rose 0.37% this week
As of March 25, China’s cotton 328 index was 22768 yuan / ton, up 0.37% this week. As of March 25, China’s imported cotton price index (1% tariff) was 22941 yuan / ton, up 6.40% this week. As of March 24, the closing price of cotlooka index (1% tariff) was 22804 yuan / ton, up 7.48% this week. On the whole, the price difference of cotton inside and outside this week was – 173 yuan / ton, which was 1294 yuan / ton lower than that at the end of last week.
As of March 17, the Australian Wool Exchange East market composite index was 1408 Australian cents / kg, equivalent to 6738688 yuan / ton (a $1 = 4.786 yuan), down 0.35% from 1413 Australian cents / kg on March 10.
According to the statistics of the national business information center of China, from January to February 2022, the retail sales of 100 key large retailers in China decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, of which the retail sales of household appliances increased by 12.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed down by 9pct compared with the same period of last year; The retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry increased by 12.0% year-on-year; The retail sales of grain, oil and food decreased by 7.9% year-on-year; The retail sales of clothing decreased by 4.9% year-on-year; The retail sales of cosmetics decreased by 6.9% year-on-year; Retail sales of daily necessities decreased by 4.8% year-on-year. The negative growth of retail sales in the first two months of this year was mainly due to the growth rate of 27.3% in the same period of last year and the rebound of the epidemic in some areas.
In January and February 2022, the export volume of oil tarpaulin, canopy and sunshade was 3.326/2.397 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 42.87% / 16.77%, and the growth rate increased by 41.56 / – 249.56 PCT respectively compared with the same period in 2021.
Risk tips
The epidemic broke out again; Fluctuation risk of raw materials; Systemic risk.
