Key investment points:
The competitiveness of small and medium-sized enterprises needs to be improved urgently. The "specialization and innovation" will accelerate the guarantee of supply chain security. Small and medium-sized enterprises undertake most of the employment, are the main force of innovation, and play an irreplaceable role in the national economy. With the increasingly complex and severe international environment and covid-19 epidemic accelerating the regionalization of the international economy, the supply chain risks of countries and enterprises are gradually emerging. There are still "neck sticking" problems in some fields in China, and the supply chain security of some institutions and enterprises is threatened; Ensuring the safety of industrial chain and supply chain has risen to the height of national strategy. With reference to German experience and sufficient scientific research support and policy encouragement, small and medium-sized enterprises can play an important role in R & D and innovation in subdivided fields and grow into "supporting experts" or "invisible champions". In the context of the urgent need to supplement and strengthen the chain and the reconstruction of the global industrial chain system, the development of "specialized, special and new" enterprises will help to "fill in the gaps" and optimize China's industrial structure.
The cultivation of "specialized and special new" enterprises is accelerated, and the industry is relatively concentrated. The concept of "specialization and innovation" was put forward in 2011 and accelerated in 2018. At present, three batches of national "specialization and innovation" little giants have been published in China, with a total of 4922 enterprises, including 351 A-share listed companies (by the end of January 2022). From the perspective of geographical distribution, the first two batches of specialized new "little giant" listed enterprises are mainly concentrated in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Beijing, Guangdong and other places; The third batch of listed enterprises in Shandong, Anhui, Sichuan and other provinces increased significantly. Specialized and newly listed companies are concentrated in medium and high-end industries, and the number of Companies in mechanical equipment industry is far higher than that in other industries.
The gross profit margin and R & D expenses of "specialized and special new" enterprises account for a relatively high proportion. By the end of January 2022, 273 of the 351 specialized special new A-share companies had a market value of less than 10 billion, accounting for 78%; There are only eight companies with a market value of more than 30 billion, which are distributed in four fields: new power, medicine, electronics and automobile. 58% of the companies' operating revenue in 2020 was in the range of 300-1 billion yuan, and only 18 companies exceeded 3 billion yuan. In 2020, the average revenue of 351 specialized special new companies was 1.054 billion yuan, and the average net profit attributable to the parent was 129 million yuan, which was smaller than the components of gem, science and innovation board and CSI 1000 index. However, the average gross profit margin of specialized Texin sector exceeds 40%, which is significantly higher than that of gem and CSI 1000 index, and only lower than that of science and innovation board. Meanwhile, the R & D expenses of 351 companies accounted for 5.81% of the operating revenue, which was only lower than that of the science and Innovation Board (10%).
The cultivation plan for millions of specialized and special new enterprises has been released, and a gradient cultivation system has been established. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the Ministry of industry and information technology plans to cultivate one million innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, 100000 provincial specialized and special new enterprises, 10000 specialized and special new "little giant" enterprises and 1000 "single champion" enterprises, so as to build a gradient cultivation pattern of high-quality enterprises. Many provinces and cities have also issued relevant policies to cultivate specialized and new enterprises at the national, provincial, municipal and district (county) levels. At present, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other economically developed regions have more state-level specialized and special new enterprises; Central provinces and cities have higher enthusiasm for cultivating provincial specialized and special new enterprises.
Pay attention to the two main investment lines of domestic substitution and "carbon neutralization". Considering the strength of policy support and the urgency of demand, it is suggested to pay attention to two main investment lines:
1) domestic substitution: there is a problem of high import dependence in the "neck" field of some manufacturing industries. Under the background of trade friction, the demand for domestic substitutes such as core parts is becoming stronger and stronger. Made in China 2025 proposes that 70% of core basic parts and key basic materials will be independently guaranteed by 2025. With the encouragement of policies, the R & D process of alternative products with core competitiveness is expected to accelerate and drive the rapid growth of relevant enterprises.
2) "carbon neutrality": after the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the international oil and gas prices continued to rise, and the production costs of the manufacturing industry were forced to increase. At the same time, China's energy structure is dominated by coal and oil and gas, with a high degree of dependence on foreign countries. There are hidden dangers in energy security, and the transformation to non fossil energy is imminent. The 30 / 60 target has been set, policies have been intensively introduced, and there is great pressure on emission reduction. The installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power will maintain a relatively rapid growth, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to accelerate. Some "specialized and special new" enterprises provide core equipment and parts for downstream leading enterprises, and are in an important link of the industrial chain. They are expected to continue to benefit from the increased demand in the field of new energy.
Comprehensively consider the growth and enterprise development stage, and optimize the investment portfolio with multiple ideas.
1) take the proportion of R & D expenses & gross profit margin as the core index: take the average value of the proportion of R & D expenses in revenue in the three years from 2018 to 2020 as the first screening index, and take the gross profit margin of the company from 2018 to 2020 as the secondary screening index, and select the top 40 companies to build the investment portfolio; The annual yield of the portfolio in 2021 was 71.65%, outperforming the small and medium-sized index by 62.44 PCT and the gem index by 63.70 PCT.
2) take the revenue growth rate and fixed asset expansion rate as the core indicators: select the target portfolio with revenue growth rate exceeding 20% in 20182020 or fixed asset investment expansion rate exceeding 30% in 20192020, including 36 stocks; The annual yield of the portfolio in 2021 was 66.07%, outperforming the small and medium-sized index by 56.87pct and the gem index by 58.12pct.
3) the revenue proportion and revenue scale of the previous two main products are the core screening indicators: we take the sum of the revenue proportion of the first two products with the highest revenue in 20192020 as the main index, and consider the company's operating revenue in 20192020 to screen the top 40 companies to build an investment portfolio; The total return of the portfolio in 2021 was 43%, outperforming the small and medium-sized index by 33.08 PCT and the gem index by 35.06 PCT.
Industry rating and investment strategy we believe that under the background of changes in the international trade environment, it is urgent to ensure the safety of the supply chain and "make up for weaknesses" in key links. The policy strongly supports the cultivation of "specialized and special new" enterprises, and enterprises with core technological capabilities usher in a golden period of development. Based on this, for the first time, we give a "recommended" rating to the specialized special new sector.
Focus on individual stocks Pony Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300887) (purchase), Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) , Shenzhen Yanmade Technology Inc(688312) , Guangdong Huatie Tongda High-Speed Railway Equipment Corporation(000976) , Suzhou Shijing Environmental Technology Co.Ltd(301030) , etc
The implementation progress of risk warning policy is less than expected; The order growth rate of listed companies was lower than expected; Changes in tax preference system; The progress of M & A is less than expected; Repeated impact of the epidemic; The sample data used in the report is limited, there is a risk that the sample is not enough to represent the overall market, and there may be errors in the statistical method of data processing; China and Germany are not completely comparable, and relevant materials are only for reference; Focus on the company's performance less than expected.
