Market review this week:
CITIC coal index closed at 301930 points, up 5.81%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 7.95pct, ranking No. 1 in the rise and fall list of CITIC primary sector.
Analysis of key areas:
Power coal: the off-season characteristics appear, and the coal price fluctuates widely. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation of port q5500 was about 15501600 yuan / ton (up first and then down), which was flat on a weekly basis. In terms of producing areas, the efforts to increase production and ensure supply in the main producing areas have not decreased, the production and sales of most coal mines in the producing areas have remained high, and the production of some mining areas is limited due to the environmental protection inspection and the shortage of coal management tickets at the end of the month; Affected by the supervision of medium and long-term contracts, the sales of coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia are mainly long-term cooperative coal and guaranteed supply coal; When the railway is full, the bottleneck of transportation capacity becomes more and more prominent. Except for the long-term cooperative use, it is difficult for market users to ask for cars, there are few coal resources in the market, and it is difficult for non long-term cooperative users such as chemical industry to buy coal. In terms of ports, the railway traffic volume basically maintained a full capacity state, and the transfer in volume only increased slightly under the bottleneck of transport capacity; Due to the better weather and the lifting of the air traffic closure, the transfer out volume picked up rapidly. On the whole, the transfer out is less than the transfer in, and the inventory in Beigang has increased slightly, but the inventory recovery is slow, which is still at a low level year-on-year. The reservoir function is poor, and the spring maintenance of Daqin line will be carried out in April, which will have a certain impact on the transfer in of the port. Downstream, the epidemic disturbance, superimposed power plant maintenance, daily consumption continued to decline. This week, the daily consumption of the power plant rebounded slightly under the influence of cold air in the first half of the week; In the second half of the week, affected by the epidemic, some industries in the downstream were shut down, coupled with the power of hydropower, some power plants in central and South China arranged maintenance, the daily consumption continued to decrease, and the inventory increased slightly. In terms of import, with the decline of demand in major importing countries, the imported thermal coal market remained cold as a whole, and overseas coal prices fell slightly; Indonesia's Ramadan is approaching, and miners need to strictly fulfill their DMO obligations. Indonesia's coal supply is expected to be further tightened, or the space for the fall of imported coal prices will be limited. On the whole, the profit of the shipping port of origin has expanded, and the transfer in of the port has increased. With the end of the heating season, the policy regulation has increased, the market wait-and-see mentality is strong, the demand for terminal procurement has slowed down, and the coal price is weak and stable. However, the price of origin is relatively strong, which affects the transportation efficiency under the epidemic situation. In addition, the spring maintenance of Daqin line will be started on April 18, and the import is still slightly upside down. It is expected that the short-term downward space is also limited. In the later stage, we still need to pay attention to the changes of China's policies and demand side. The main contradiction of the power coal market is still in the coastal area, the storage of power coal in the port is at a low level in recent years, and the function of the reservoir is weakened; At the same time, the cost of imported coal is high, and China's coal price is facing policy risks at any time, or lead to the reduction of import quantity, which will affect the supply of coastal power coal. If the problem of low inventory along the coast can not be solved, even in the off-season, the coal price will rise again after the periodic decline, maintaining the view that the coal price in the off-season will fluctuate in a wide range of 12001900 yuan / ton.
Coking coal: the disturbance of the epidemic situation does not change and has a long-term positive trend. This week, under the disturbance of the epidemic, the market mentality of coking coal was weak, the flow auction situation increased, and the quotation was slightly adjusted. The coal types of price reduction were mainly low sulfur main coking coal, fat coal and some gas coal with a large increase in the early stage, with an overall decline of about 100300 yuan / ton. As of Friday, the Shanxi main coke of Jingtang Port had closed at 3350 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis. This week, due to the impact of the epidemic, the demand for coking coal in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia in Tangshan, Hebei Province was passively reduced, the inventory of coking coal accumulated to varying degrees, and the production of some coal mines was passively reduced. In the future, the Ministry of ecology and environment recently issued the second round of the Sixth Batch of central ecological and environmental protection supervision, which will carry out the supervision of Hebei, Inner Mongolia and other provinces (regions) for about one month, and the output of coking coal may be reduced. In terms of importing Mongolian coal, the epidemic situation has gradually eased, with an average daily customs clearance of 212 vehicles in Ganqi Maodu, an increase of 21 vehicles compared with the same period last week; Due to the recent cooling of China's coking coal market and the poor willingness of Mongolian coal downstream to receive goods, it is more cautious to wait and see. The quotations of some traders began to be reduced. At present, the mainstream quotation of Mongolian 5 raw coal is 23802400 yuan / ton. On the demand side, affected by the epidemic, the demand for coking coal in Tangshan, Hebei Province and other places in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia has been passively reduced. Most local coke enterprises in Shanxi have also begun to wait and see, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down slightly. In the short term, we will pay attention to the progress of the epidemic in Tangshan and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal. After the epidemic is controlled, the steel mills will have a centralized and explosive demand for replenishment of storage. The superimposed hot metal output will move up, and there is still room for improvement in downstream demand. The price of coking coal may rise strongly at that time.
Coke: focus on the progress of the epidemic in Tangshan. This week, the mainstream price of coke market was stable. Affected by the blocked arrival in Tangshan, some resources in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia fell by 100200 yuan / ton. At present, the quasi one spot exchange transaction at the port is 3450 yuan / ton. On the supply side, the epidemic control measures in some regions are relatively strict, and the production level has not been affected yet, but the transportation is not smooth. Coke enterprises in the central and western regions have accumulated warehouses to varying degrees, the shipping pressure increases, and the short-term coke supply side tends to be loose. On the demand side, the resumption of production of steel mills is in good condition, but under the influence of the epidemic, some steel mills in Tangshan began to stew or limit production due to the shortage of raw materials. Considering that there is no sign of easing the current epidemic, it is not ruled out that it is possible to continue to increase production restriction in the later stage. On the whole, under the control of the short-term epidemic, the pressure of coke accumulation is large, while the steel plant is forced to reduce production due to lack of raw materials, and the fundamentals have a weakening trend. However, with the easing of the epidemic and the recovery of hot metal production, there is still room for coke prices to rise.
Investment strategy. This week, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) released the annual dividend plan, pointing out that in order to actively repay shareholders, the company plans to pay a dividend of 2.54 yuan / share at the end of 2021, with the dividend ratio significantly increased to 100.4% compared with the previously specified 50% (lower limit), far exceeding market expectations and the value of core assets. At present, the window period of annual report and first quarterly report has come. Under the high coal price, the performance of relevant companies has increased significantly. Under the background of declining capital expenditure in the industry year by year, the dividend proportion is expected to increase, and the sector is looking forward to double-click. China will still be based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal, and traditional energy will not withdraw too soon. Under the background of limited room for tapping the potential of new production capacity and stock, the central rise of coal price will contribute to the stable release of performance and valuation repair of coal enterprises. In addition, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal, coking coal and coke prices are all global price depressions, and the upside down of prices will significantly affect China's import volume. Even there is export arbitrage space for some varieties after processing finished products, which will form a strong support for China's coal prices. Stick to the core assets and be optimistic about the valuation repair of high long-term association and high score red coal enterprises. Key recommendations: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) . In addition, the transformation of traditional energy enterprises under the goal of "double carbon" is worth looking forward to. The key recommendations are power investment energy (green power), Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) (energy storage), Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) (new materials and green power), Yankuang energy (new materials and green power), Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (hydrogen energy) and China Xuyang group (hydrogen energy). Actively layout the national reform in Shanxi, and focus on recommending Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , with expected asset injection.
Risk tip: China's output release exceeded expectations, the downstream demand was less than expected, and the on grid electricity price was significantly reduced.
