Market Review
In the five trading days of last week (03210325), the CSI 300 fell 2.15%, and the building materials (CITIC) index fell 3.73%. The earnings of sub sectors were negative, the performance of cycle varieties was relatively good, and the performance of consumer building materials was weak. Among individual stocks, Luoyang Northglass Technology Co.Ltd(002613) , Fujian Kuncai Material Technology Co.Ltd(603826) , Hainan Ruize New Building Material Co.Ltd(002596) , Guangdong Tianan New Material Co.Ltd(603725) , Jinyuan Ep Co.Ltd(000546) led the increase.
What is the historical performance of Q2 building materials index?
Judging from the performance of building materials (CITIC) index, CSI 300 and wandequan a index in Q2 in the past five years, the trend of building materials index in Q2 is basically consistent with the market index in most of the time, but the range return of Q2 over the years is weaker than the market index. We judge that there may be relatively more policy expectations for the two sessions and new construction in Q1 infrastructure / real estate chain, but relatively less policy expectations for entering Q2. In fact, we proposed in previous reports that the building materials index has a high probability of achieving relative returns in Q1 in history. In Q1 2022, the building materials index fell by 16.01%, slightly larger than the decline of Shanghai and Shenzhen 3 million and wandequan a, and failed to achieve relatively positive returns. From the perspective of policy and industry catalysis, we believe that there may be room for policy improvement at the real estate end of 22q2, which may have a positive impact on the varieties of the real estate chain.
From the revenue ranking performance of the sub sectors, in the past five years, the best average revenue ranking in Q2 is the consumption of building materials and glass fiber, and the performance ranking of glass in 21q2 is outstanding. We think it is related to the high prosperity of the downstream and the rapid rise of glass prices at that time. Other structural materials and other special materials that are greatly affected by policy catalysis perform weakly in most years. We believe that the market of Q2 sub sector may be more related to the quality of fundamentals. Varieties with fundamentals or profit improvement expectations are more likely to rank high in revenue. We believe that the consumption of building materials Q2 may gradually usher in the improvement of fundamentals, and the Q2 market is worth looking forward to.
Continue to be optimistic about stable growth and fundamental reversal, and recommend the consumption of building materials / pipelines / cement, etc
1) influenced by the prosperity of real estate, capital chain and cost pressure last year, the above factors are expected to gradually improve. In the medium and long term, the leading companies have started channel reform, and the scale effect is expected to continuously improve the industry concentration, both long and short; 2) The downstream of the plastic pipeline sector has both infrastructure and real estate. The infrastructure end is expected to benefit from the warming of municipal pipe network investment, and the logic of the real estate end is similar to that of consumer building materials; 3) Cement is expected to benefit from the improvement of follow-up infrastructure and real estate demand. In the medium and long term, the supply pattern is expected to be continuously optimized; 4) The domestic glass industry is expected to benefit from the relatively low market value of glass folding method, and the current market value of glass folding method and other new glass units is expected to be in a relatively warm period this year. At present, the market value of glass folding method is expected to return to a relatively stable level, and the overall market value of glass folding method is expected to be in a relatively warm period this year; 5) The demand side of glass fiber is driven by the downstream of wind power and overseas, and the increment on the supply side is limited.
Investment advice
Recommendations for consumer building materials Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , etc; The pipeline recommends China Liansu, Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) , ad shares, etc; Cement recommendations Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) ; Glass recommended Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Xinyi Glass, etc; Glass fiber recommendation China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) etc;
Risk tip: the demand for infrastructure and real estate fell more than expected, affecting the rising trend of cement and glass prices; The promotion of old reform and new urbanization was less than expected.
