Industry tracking (2022.3.192022.3.25)
LPR remained unchanged in March and the credit environment was loose
On March 21, 2022, the central bank authorized the national interbank lending center to announce that the LPR of one-year term was 3.7%, and that of more than five-year term was 4.6%, which was the same as that of the previous month. In March, the interest rate of the first house loan and the second house loan in the main 103 cities monitored by the shell Research Institute was 5.34% and 5.60%, down 13 and 15bps compared with February, down for six consecutive months, and down 40 and 40bps respectively compared with the high point in September of 21 years.
Mortgage interest rates in key cities have fallen sharply, and bank lending cycles have continued to shorten
In March, mortgage interest rates in many places were lowered and credit was further relaxed. Taking the key urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta as an example, the interest rate of the first house of some banks in Nanjing fell to 5.4%, down 40bps from February, reaching a phased low. The interest rate of the first house of some banks in Hangzhou decreased to 5.1%, and the interest rate of the second house decreased to 5.3%, which was significantly lower than that in February. The interest rate of the first house of some banks in Suzhou fell to 4.6%, the same as the LPR over five years, the lowest interest rate of the first house in the past two years. According to the data of Shell Research Institute, the average lending cycle of key cities has decreased from 74 days in October last year to 34 days in March, and the lending cycle continues to shrink.
Credit and policy easing are superimposed, and the market is expected to stabilize
The credit environment continued to be relaxed, and the demand support policies were introduced in succession. However, due to the epidemic and the rhythm of demand release, the decline of high-frequency sales in key cities has further expanded since March. We believe that the stability of demand side is the primary premise to alleviate the current pressure on fundamentals and credit. If the pressure of short-term sales adjustment is large, we do not rule out the further easing of mortgage support and the further expansion of the four restrictions (purchase, loan, sale and price restrictions), the market is expected to stabilize in the middle and late second quarter.
New houses, second-hand houses and land markets were traded this week
The new housing market traded 3.87 million square meters this week, with a monthly year-on-year decrease of – 43.17%, a decrease of 16.05 PCT compared with the previous month; The accumulated inventory is 76.99 million square meters, and the decontamination of the first, second, third and lower lines is accelerated. The second-hand housing market traded 1.07 million square meters this week, with a monthly year-on-year increase of – 34.92%, an improvement of 0.67 PCT compared with the previous month. The land market traded 9.68 million square meters this week, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of – 45.08%; The total turnover was 17.9 billion yuan, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of – 66.01%; The national average premium rate was + 2.44%, rolling for 12 weeks, year-on-year -11.71pct.
This week, the Shenwan real estate index was + 3.84%, up 1.86pct from last week, ranking 3 / 31, ahead of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 5.98pct. In terms of H shares, this week’s wind Hong Kong real estate index was – 1.24%, down 5.47pct from last week, ranking 8 / 11 higher, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.21pct; The kroney leading index of real estate stocks was – 2.95%, down 10.30pct from last week.
Grasp the beta of loose policy structure and the alpha of M & A
Investment suggestion: the future industry beta depends on the adjustment of industry structure, the pace of capacity clearing and the strength of policy support; Alpha focuses on the repair of the balance sheet and profit margin of key real estate enterprises by M & A, the accuracy of countercyclical plus leverage, and the long-term excavation of the value of housing scenarios. Continuous recommendation: 1) high quality leaders: Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; 2) High quality growth: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Xuhui holding group; 3) Quality property management: Country Garden service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , poly property, Xuhui Yongsheng service.
Risk warning: industry credit risk spread; The downward cycle of industry sales begins; Administrative regulation remained high-pressure, and the pilot strength of real estate tax exceeded expectations
