Investment advice
Core combination [core combination] of the core combination of the core combination of ‘ Avic Xi’An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) ;, China Cssc Holdings Limited(600150) , China Marine Information Electronics Company Limited(600764) , Beijing Aerospace Changfeng Co.Ltd(600855)
Key stock pool [Key stock pool] has focused on a pool of key shares in a pool of focused shares that has China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Wuxi Hyatech Co.Ltd(688510) , Wuhan Guide Infrared Co.Ltd(002414) , Zhejiang Dali Technology Co.Ltd(002214) , Xi’An Bright Laser Technologies Co.Ltd(688333) , Chengdu Zhimingda Electronics Co.Ltd(688636) , Raytron Technology Co.Ltd(688002) , Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) Asian Star Anchor Chain Co.Ltd.Jiangsu(601890)
[last week’s report] [ North Industries Group Red Arrow Co.Ltd(000519) ] depth: cultivate diamond + industrial diamond, dual drive of military and civilian products, the leader of intelligent ammunition of Ordnance Group; [defense equipment] NATO member states increase military spending; The strategic position of national defense and security was further enhanced.
[views of this week] (1) the NATO summit issued a joint statement to increase aid to Ukraine, military deployment and military spending of Member States, and the proportion of military spending GDP of more than half of NATO member states may be increased. North Korea successfully test fired the “Mars gun-17” intercontinental ballistic missile, which is expected to have a range of 15000 kilometers according to media reports. We believe that the strategic position of national defense and security in the country has been further improved. National defense and military industrial assets not only have asset attributes, but also are the premise and barrier to ensure the value of other assets. (2) The high outlook and medium and long-term investment logic of the military industry have not changed, and the investment value of this round of callback is prominent. Since the beginning of the year, Shenwan national defense military industry index has fallen by 22%. At present, the overall PE is 57 times, 23% of the historical high, and the configuration value is prominent. (3) Endogenous and epitaxial dual drive: firmly optimistic about the military industry from 2022 to 2023, and the index has great room for rise; In 2022, as the last year of the “three-year action plan” of state-owned enterprises, the mixed reform / incentive / asset securitization will be promoted in an all-round way, the epitaxial growth will exceed expectations, and the military industry will be driven by endogenous + epitaxial growth.
[core view] the 12 character core logic of national defense and military industry: endogenous + extension, domestic demand + foreign trade, military products + civil products. The deterministic growth of national defense equipment is high. In 2022, it will enter the “endogenous + extension” two wheel drive of “business cycle + asset integration”, “domestic demand + foreign trade” and “military products + civil products”. The military industry index is expected to replicate the performance of the wind power index in the second half of 2021 in 2022, and the latter is in the top: (1) under the “hundred year change”, the deterministic growth of national defense industry is high. “Preparing for war / 2027 / building a strong national defense commensurate with the second largest economy” is the established direction, Large contract liabilities in 2021 highlight the high boom of the 14th five year plan. (2) In the next few years, the securitization of national defense and military industrial assets and the reorganization and listing of core military products are expected to set off a new round of climax, and pay attention to the reorganization process of China Shipbuilding Group / Aerospace Hi-Tech Holding Group Co.Ltd(000901) / CETC / AVIC / Aerospace Science and industry / ordnance industry. (3) China’s tanks / UAVs / trainers / fighters are globally competitive, and the demand for foreign trade is gradually rising. Domestic large aircraft / civil aviation engine and other industrial chains are also gradually growing.
1. Host factories: the defense industry is looking at the missile industry, the missile / information / aircraft launch / military machine sub industry, scale + fine management, “small core and big collaboration,” small core and big collaboration “. In the next five years, the next five years of defense host performance will be elastic, and the” three years of state enterprise reform “will be the end of the three-year action to end, and equity incentives are expected to accelerate. The release of performance is expected to accelerate. The release of equity incentives is expected to accelerate. The release of performance is expected to boost. The release of performance: Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) China Cssc Holdings Limited(600150) , AVIC.
2. Core parts / raw materials: continue to be optimistic about high-temperature alloys / composites / midstream component level supporting enterprises / engine forging castings / informatization core midstream and other midstream and upstream sub circuits with high technical barriers, high scarcity and good competition pattern: Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) ., Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical Co.Ltd(603308) , Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co.Ltd(002651) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) , Xi’An Triangle Defense Co.Ltd(300775) , Wuxi Hyatech Co.Ltd(688510) , Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) .♪ China Avionics Systems Co.Ltd(600372) Xi’An Bright Laser Technologies Co.Ltd(688333) Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) 。
3. Military electronics: missiles and informatization: Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , Fujian Torch Electron Technology Co.Ltd(603678) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Chengdu Zhimingda Electronics Co.Ltd(688636) , Wuhan Guide Infrared Co.Ltd(002414) , etc.
Risk tips: 1) the rhythm of equity incentive and asset securitization is lower than expected; 2) the delivery progress of important products is lower than expected.
