Main points:
Pig prices rose 4.9% week on week, and pig breeding stocks traded time for space.
① pig prices rose by 4.9% on a weekly basis. On Saturday, the national pig price was 12.32 yuan / kg, up 4.9% on a weekly basis; The average wholesale price of pork in China was 18.22 yuan / kg, up 1.2% on a weekly basis; This week, the loss of self breeding pigs was 549.21 yuan / head, and the loss of outsourcing piglet breeding was 287.03 yuan / head.
② the proportion of low body reborn pigs dropped again, and the week to week ratio of willingness to make up the fence increased slightly. According to the data disclosed by Yongyi consulting (3.18-3.24): the proportion of domestic pigs in 90kg in China accounted for 6.47%, the week on week ratio decreased by 0.74 percentage points, and the epidemic situation fell to the lowest level since non plague; The market price of 15kg piglets in the scale farm this week was 407 yuan / head, up 1% on a weekly basis, up 164% from 154 yuan / head at the bottom, and the price of 50kg binary sows was 1632 yuan / head, flat on a weekly basis, up 31.8% from 1238 yuan / head at the bottom. ③ The pig price is expected to enter an upward cycle in 2023. The valuation of mainstream companies is in the bottom area, so time can change space. The production capacity inflection point of China’s pig breeding industry appeared in June last year. According to the data of the Ministry of agriculture, from July last year to January this year, the number of fertile sows in China has decreased by 7%. Since February this year, the pig price has remained depressed. We expect that the number of fertile sows will continue to decline month on month. Because the data in February will be disturbed by seasonal factors, the change of fertile sows in March and April is particularly critical. We maintain our previous judgment that if there is no serious epidemic, the industry will experience a bottom grinding stage in 2022, and pig prices are expected to enter an upward cycle in 2023. We estimate the average market value of each pig enterprise with the expected slaughter volume in 2022, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) 6011 yuan, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) 4873 yuan, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) 1892 yuan, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) 2960 yuan and COFCO Jiakang 2099 yuan. The valuation of mainstream listed pig enterprises is in the bottom area, so we suggest to pay active attention.
The price of white feather chicken products was flat on a weekly basis, while the price of yellow feather chicken fell on a weekly basis.
① the price of white feather chicken products was flat on a week-on-week basis. In the 11th week of 2022 (3.14-3.20), the price of parental chicken seedlings was 20.62 yuan / set, with a decrease of 11.4% on a weekly basis; The sales volume of parent generation chicken seedlings was 1.001 million sets, down 7.9% month on month; On Friday, the price of white feather chicken was 9620 yuan / ton, the same as last week. China Poultry Industry Association released the February report: from January to February 2022, the national white feather ancestral renewal volume was 161400 sets, a year-on-year decrease of 35.7%, of which the ancestral renewal volume was 36800 sets in February, a year-on-year sharp decrease of 76.6%. With the decline of the price of parents’ chicken seedlings, the willingness of ancestral renewal began to decline. We maintain our previous judgment that the ancestral renewal of white feather broilers will be 1 million units in 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 18%, and the price of white feather broilers is expected to stabilize and recover in 2022; In 2021, the national ancestral renewal volume increased by 24.3% year-on-year, and the chicken price may decline in 2023. ② Yellow feather chicken prices fell week on week. Affected by covid-19 epidemic, increased production capacity and other factors, the loss degree of yellow feather broiler industry in 2020 is second only to that in 2013 impacted by the “human infection h7n9 epidemic”, and the stock in the ancestors began to decline from the middle of 2020. From 2020 to 21, the yellow feather chicken industry suffered an overall loss, and the industry continued to lose production capacity. The price of yellow feather chicken is expected to rise moderately in 2022. As of March 25, the average price of yellow feather broiler fast chicken was 5.92 yuan / kg, down 4.1% month on week and 13.3% year-on-year; The average price of medium speed chicken was 6.81 yuan / kg, down 3.5% month on week and 4.4% year-on-year; The average price of native chicken was 8.21 yuan / kg, down 0.7% month on week and 1.0% year-on-year; Black bone chicken was 8.51 yuan / kg, down 1.5% month on week and up 8.3% year-on-year.
The feed boom is low, and the swine vaccine focuses on the progress of non plague vaccine.
From January to February 2022, the total output of industrial feed in China was 43.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%; In terms of varieties, the output of pig feed was 21.26 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%; The output of egg and poultry feed was 5.25 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%; The feed output of meat and poultry, aquatic products and ruminants was 12.65 million tons, 1.67 million tons and 2.51 million tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, 31.3% and 3.7% respectively. From January to February 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of batch issuance data of swine vaccine was from high to low: highly pathogenic porcine blue ear vaccine 4.2%, foot-and-mouth vaccine – 11.5%, porcine parvovirus vaccine – 25.5%, porcine circovirus vaccine – 31.4%, diarrhea vaccine – 49.4%, classical swine fever vaccine – 50.3% and Porcine Pseudorabies Vaccine – 67.1%. We believe that the pig price is still at the bottom stage in 2022, and the prosperity of pig vaccine may remain low. It is suggested to focus on the progress of non plague vaccine.
The commercialization of genetically modified crops is gradually approaching, and the prices of corn and soybean meal in China are rising week on week.
① the commercialization of genetically modified crops is gradually approaching, and it is suggested to pay attention to the leader of seed industry. I) GM seeds will be sold in the second half of 2023. The draft of amendments to the regulations of four departments, including the measures for the examination and approval of major crop varieties, may be approved at the beginning of this year. According to the revised draft, if it is within the scope of suitable planting area, it is only necessary to conduct one-year productive experiment. Therefore, seed production can be carried out as soon as 2023, and sales will begin in the second half of 2023. II) seed industry leaders are expected to fully benefit. ② Corn prices may remain relatively high in 2022. The USDA’s supply and demand report in March predicted that the global corn stock consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 was 25.2%, 0.4 percentage points lower than that in 20 / 21 and 0.2 percentage points lower than that in February, the lowest since 16 / 17. According to the prediction of the market early warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas of China in March: the national corn balance in 2021 / 22 is 4.83 million tons, which is the same as that in February and 3.24 million tons lower than that in 2020 / 21. In the year of 21 / 22, China’s corn supply and demand is in a tight balance. We expect that the corn price may remain relatively high in 2022. On Friday, the spot price of corn was 283255 yuan / ton, up 0.1% on a weekly basis and down 3.0% year-on-year; ③ Soybean and soybean meal prices may remain relatively high in 2022. The USDA’s supply and demand report in March predicted that the global soybean stock consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 was 24.7%, 3.4 percentage points lower than that in 20 / 21 and 0.4 percentage points lower than that predicted in February; The global soybean meal inventory consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 was 5.3%, down 0.6 percentage points from 20 / 21, up 0.3 percentage points from the predicted value in February, and still at the lowest level since 11 / 12.
According to the forecast of China’s agricultural early warning Committee, the annual balance of soybean was 5.88 million tons in January / February, which was the same as that of the national agricultural early warning Committee. We expect soybean and soybean meal prices to remain high in 2022. On Friday, the spot price of soybean was 550474 yuan / ton, up 3.1% on a weekly basis and 7.3% on a year-on-year basis; The spot price of soybean meal was 515486 yuan / ton, up 3.1% on a weekly basis and 54.7% on a year-on-year basis.
China’s pet market has great potential, and the epidemic has dragged down the gradual end.
From 2010 to 2020, the compound annual growth rate of China’s pet consumption market was as high as 30.9%; In 2020, the scale growth of China’s pet consumption market slowed down to 2% and maintained single digit growth in 2021. We believe that the main reason for the slowdown in 20202021 is that the outbreak of covid-19 epidemic has significantly increased the downward pressure on the economy and delayed the entry of potential PET consumers into the market. However, from the medium and long-term perspective, the penetration rate of pets in China is 17%, while that in the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom and Japan is as high as 68%, 62%, 45% and 38% respectively; The annual consumption expenditure of pet dogs and cats in China is US $869 and US $679 respectively, which are lower than that of major pet breeding countries. China’s pet consumption market has great growth potential. From the perspective of the company, Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) is affected by the exchange and Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) is affected by the shutdown of the factory in Vietnam. We continue to recommend Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) , Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) .
Risk tips
Non plague out of control; Prices fell more than expected.
