Zhou's view: the year-on-year growth rate of the first quarterly report of wealth management and property insurance line may be better
The annual report began intensive disclosure, and the overall situation of life insurance was in line with expectations. The impact of the epidemic on the economy has increased again, superimposed on the industry transformation, and the debt side may continue to be under pressure in 2022, so the property insurance has a good boom. Affected by the decline of the equity market, the wealth management track has weakened month on month, and the year-on-year performance growth has a relative prosperity. At present, we are optimistic about the leader of the big wealth management track with both beta attribute and valuation cost performance.
Brokerage: the first quarterly report of wealth management track leader was relatively good year-on-year, and the net subscription force of partial stock funds weakened in February
(1) on Sunday, the average share based turnover was 1035.4 billion, a month on month increase of - 15%. The partial share fund issued 5.5 billion yuan, and the new issuance is still at the bottom. China Foundation Association disclosed on March 25 that by the end of February, the holding scale of partial stock funds (shares + mixed) in the whole market was 8.15 trillion, with a month on month increase of + 1.0%; At the end of February, non goods held 16.00 trillion yuan, a month on month increase of + 1.1%. The growth rate of partial stocks and non goods was slightly lower than our expectation. In February, the growth of the holding scale of partial stock funds was mainly driven by the net value. The partial stock fund index rose by 1.15% in February. It is estimated that the net value of unit shares of partial stock funds in the whole market is + 1.0% month on month. The partial stock shares are close to zero growth, and the power of net subscription is significantly weakened. (2) Looking forward to the first quarterly report of securities companies, we expect the average daily holding scale of partial stock funds in the whole market in 2022q1 to be + 19% year-on-year. It is expected that the profit of the business line of public funds of securities companies will maintain a good growth year-on-year, and the leading profit performance of wealth management track may be better than the industry average; Affected by investment income, the probability of year-on-year performance of traditional securities companies is under pressure. (3) The market pays attention to the follow-up steady growth policy. At present, we are optimistic about the big wealth management track leader with beta attribute and long-term valuation cost performance. We recommend China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) and Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , and the beneficiary objects Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) and China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares).
Insurance: due to the impact of the epidemic, life insurance was still under pressure in the first quarter, and the prosperity of property insurance was better
(1) this week, China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) , The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) , China Taiping and Zhong'an online disclosed the annual results of 2021. The data of China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) / China Taiping / The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) life insurance in 2021 were - 23.3% / + 0.7% / - 34.9%, China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) and PICC Life Insurance met the market expectations, and China Taiping slightly exceeded our expectations. From the statement of the performance press conference of listed life insurance companies, we expect that in 2022, the life insurance industry will still be in the stage of transformation and upgrading and clearing of backward production capacity, and the manpower scale may further decline, superimposing the impact of the epidemic. The NBV of listed insurance companies may be significantly under pressure year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022, and the NBV of the whole year may improve year-on-year or affected by the base effect in the second half of the year. (2) In terms of property insurance, the comprehensive cost rate of Zhongan online decreased to 99.6% (a decrease of 2.9pct), realizing the underwriting profit of the whole year for the first time, driving the net profit of the scale to + 110.2% year-on-year. It is expected that the comprehensive cost rate will be flat or slightly decreased in 2022. Follow up attention will be paid to the premium growth; PICC P & C achieved a year-on-year net profit of + 8.4% in 2021, with an auto insurance premium of 255.3 billion, a year-on-year - 3.9% and a comprehensive cost rate of 97.3%. In 2022, the impact of the comprehensive reform of auto insurance gradually subsided, and the head insurance enterprises have obvious advantages in service, pricing and data, which is expected to promote the optimization of the auto insurance market pattern. (3) The growth of property insurance exceeded expectations and China's property insurance benefited; The valuation of life insurance shares has reflected the market's pessimistic expectations on the liability side. The follow-up opportunities are mainly to improve expectations on the asset side. Recommend Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , which has a large repair space on the asset side, China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) 601 , which is leading in transformation, and the beneficiary objects are China Property Insurance (H shares), AIA (H shares) and China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) .
Combination of beneficial objects
Securities companies: China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares), Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) ;
Insurance: China Property Insurance (H shares), AIA (H shares), China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) ;
Diversified Finance: Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) .
Risk warning: stock market fluctuations have an uncertain impact on the profits of securities companies and insurance companies; The growth of insurance liabilities is less than expected; The profit growth of wealth management and asset management of securities companies was lower than expected.
