The detailed rules for power auxiliary services in the south are implemented, and the market is expected to expand. On March 22, the southern regulatory bureau of the National Energy Administration solicited public opinions on the “implementation rules for the management of power grid connection operation in the southern region & the management of power auxiliary services”. Among them, new energy storage, directly controlled adjustable load and pumped storage are included in the main management of grid connection, the types of power auxiliary services are increased, the user participation in auxiliary service sharing mechanism is established for the first time, and the compensation standard is improved.
1) with the increase of compensation standard + types, the auxiliary service market is expected to expand. The detailed rules specify the compensation standards for various power plants providing auxiliary services according to the principle of output. Among them, the subsidy standards for peak shaving of independent energy storage power stations have been improved. Taking Guangdong as an example, the compensation standard for deep peak shaving of independent energy storage is about 0.792 yuan / kWh, which is 0.292 yuan / kWh higher than that in 2020, with an increase of 58.4%, which is expected to improve the yield of independent energy storage power stations; For pumped storage units, the detailed rules clearly give priority to the use of pumped storage units to provide auxiliary services, and other auxiliary service resources can be used only when the capacity is exhausted, which affirms the important position of pumped storage in the current auxiliary services. The part of the pumped storage unit exceeding the utilization hours of the current year can be compensated according to the standard of 0.99 yuan / MWh. In terms of varieties of auxiliary service market, types such as stable machine cutting, load cutting, moment of inertia, phase modulation and climbing have been added.
2) clarify the cost sharing mechanism of auxiliary services. The fund source of the compensation account for auxiliary services includes: 50% of the difference fund during the commissioning and operation period of the new generator set. The insufficient part shall be jointly paid by the grid connected entity at the generation side and the market-oriented power users in accordance with the principle of balance of revenue and expenditure within the Province (region). The sharing mechanism between the generation side and the user side is: “who provides, who makes profits, who benefits and who bears”. Except for the slope climbing compensation cost (borne by the wind power and photovoltaic power plants) and the peak shaving (peak shaving) compensation cost participated by the directly controlled adjustable load, the compensation costs of other varieties are jointly shared by the grid connected main body on the generation side and the market-oriented power user side according to the proportion of 50% respectively. In addition, pumped storage, new energy storage and direct control aggregation platforms (excluding power users represented by them) do not participate in the cost sharing of power auxiliary services at this stage.
According to the “14th five year plan” for modern energy system, the proportion of non fossil energy power generation will reach 39% in 2025. On March 22, the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration issued the modern energy system plan for the 14th five year plan, which put forward the goals of “comprehensive energy productivity of more than 4.6 billion tons of standard coal and 39% of non fossil energy power generation” and a number of action programs.
1) vigorously develop non fossil energy, and the power generation capacity of non fossil energy in 2025 will increase by 31.8% compared with that in 2021. The plan puts forward the goal of “the proportion of non fossil energy power generation reaches about 39% for the first time”. According to the prediction of China Power Council, in 2025, China’s total social power consumption will reach 9.8 trillion kwh, while non fossil energy power needs to reach more than 3.82 trillion kwh, an increase of 0.92 trillion kwh compared with 2021, an increase of 31.8%. According to the calculation of the installed capacity requirements, 630 million kw of wind power, 30 million kw of hydropower and 20 million kw of nuclear power may be added from 2021 to 2025. The plan also proposes to accelerate the development and application of industrial and commercial roof distributed photovoltaic and BIPV projects, which is expected to promote the long-term and high-quality development of landscape projects.
2) promote the evolution of power system to adapt to large-scale and high proportion of new energy, mainly from the power grid side and energy storage side. On the grid side, during the “14th five year plan” period, the transmission capacity of existing channels increased by more than 40 million KW, and more than 60 million kw of new trans provincial and trans regional transmission channels were started. A total of 100 million kw of new trans provincial and trans regional transmission capacity was added, of which the proportion of renewable energy power transmitted by new channels is not less than 50% in principle; On the energy storage side, accelerate the large-scale application of new energy storage technologies and support the rational allocation of distributed new energy storage systems. Strive to reach 3% ~ 5% of the maximum load by 2025. At the same time, the plan points out that guiding and supporting energy storage facilities to participate in power market transactions and establishing a new energy storage price mechanism are conducive to opening up the profit space of energy storage from the system.
3) strengthen the guarantee of coal safety. In 2025, the cumulative scale of flexible transformation of coal motor units is expected to exceed 200 million KW. In order to ensure energy and power supply, five coal supply guarantee bases in Shanxi, Western Mongolia, eastern Mongolia, Northern Shaanxi and Xinjiang will be built during the 14th Five Year Plan period to enhance the cross regional supply guarantee capacity of coal. At the same time, we will orderly promote the construction of coal-fired power supporting and regulating power supply, and strive to achieve a total of more than 200 million kilowatts of flexible transformation of coal-fired power units by 2025.
Investment suggestion: in terms of industry, the detailed rules for auxiliary services of the South Grid will be implemented, the compensation standard will be improved + the types will be improved, and the auxiliary service market is expected to expand. Among them, the independent energy storage power station may benefit more from the improvement of compensation standard; The release of the modern energy system plan of the 14th five year plan further defines that orderly promotion of wind power and photovoltaic power generation and construction of new power systems are the key work of energy construction during the 14th Five Year Plan period. Maintain the industry “recommended” rating. In terms of individual stocks, it is recommended to recommend Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) , China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) , and it is suggested to pay attention to the thermal power targets that are expected to improve profits Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) , Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) , Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) , China Resources Power, China power, Guangdong Electric Power Development Co.Ltd(000539) , Shenergy Company Limited(600642) ; Longyuan Power, Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) , Jilin Electric Power Co.Ltd(000875) , Nyocor Co.Ltd(600821) , China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) , Cecep Wind-Power Corporation(601016) , Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , Zhongmin Energy Co.Ltd(600163) , CGN new energy; Distributed photovoltaic field Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Ganghua gas, Skyworth Group, Zhejiang Sunoren Solar Technology Co.Ltd(603105) , Hangzhou Star Shuaier Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002860) . It is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) , Zhejiang Wanliyang Co.Ltd(002434) and Shaanxi Baoguang Vacuum Electronic Apparatus Co.Ltd(600379) , and energy storage EPC is suggested to pay attention to southern grid technology, Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co.Ltd(605286) , Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) .
Risk warning: focus on the improvement of the company’s performance as expected; Electricity price decline risk; Electricity demand is less than expected; Risk of policy change; The construction progress of auxiliary service market is less than expected; The construction progress of energy storage power station is less than expected; Market competition intensifies.
