Key investment points:
This week, the prosperity index of Guohai chemical industry was 150.90, up 2.31 month on month, and the prosperity improved month on month. Comprehensively consider the operation and prosperity of chemical enterprises, and give the industry a “recommended” rating.
Investment suggestion: leading enterprises usher in the period of strategic layout.
With the recent sharp rise in Brent crude oil price and the rebound in spring demand, the price of chemical products has ushered in a general rise, and the prosperity index of Guohai chemical industry monitored by us has rebounded again. We believe that at the current time point, the leading enterprises in the chemical industry have entered the period of strategic layout. From the perspective of lengthening history, the prosperity of the chemical industry has rebounded since 2016. From the perspective of the large capacity cycle, it is still in the upward period of the capacity cycle. The supply side reform plays a key role in suppressing the capacity expansion, and the demand side fluctuations have brought periodic inventory cycle fluctuations, such as the price decline caused by the decline in demand from the second half of 2018 to the beginning of 2019 and the decline caused by the covid-19 epidemic in the beginning of 2020, In the second half of 2022, the demand caused by the real estate impact declined. However, from the supply side, the capital expenditure of the overall chemical listed companies is still limited by policies and cannot be released smoothly. The final result is that the profit center of chemical products continues to rise, and the net interest center of almost major chemical leading enterprises gradually rises. At the current time point, China’s stable economic policy continues to increase, the decline in China’s demand is expected to gradually ease, the foreign covid-19 epidemic prevention policy is gradually relaxed, and the demand is rising again. However, under the dual carbon background, the capital expenditure of the global chemical industry is still suppressed, and the prosperity of the chemical industry is expected to continue to rise. From the perspective of quantity, with the introduction of China’s stable economic policy, some policies previously restricting the capital expenditure of leading enterprises are expected to be adjusted. It has been seen that the energy consumption of raw materials does not occupy the energy consumption index, the probability of new production capacity of leading enterprises being approved this year has increased, and the long-term growth expectation has reappeared, but the capacity expansion of the whole industry is still suppressed. In 2021, some leading chemical enterprises have recalled some share prices. From the perspective of three years, with the implementation of the project, the profits of leading chemical enterprises are expected to enter the growth track again and usher in a good opportunity for layout.
At the same time, the loss of profits in downstream industries due to high raw material costs will be alleviated and prices will be gradually transmitted to the downstream. The new material industry will be driven by new energy and emerging industries and usher in a good opportunity for development.
Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) has entered a period of rapid expansion. We believe that the core means to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization in the chemical industry is to use technological innovation to bring changes in energy structure, energy consumption level, raw material structure and product structure. Technological innovation is the key, and innovation can continue to grow. In 2021, the company’s R & D expenses reached 3.168 billion yuan, an increase of 55.07% year-on-year; By the end of 2021, the company’s construction in progress had reached 29.352 billion yuan, accounting for 45% of fixed assets, of which the cash inflow of fixed assets purchased and constructed in the fourth quarter had reached 8.054 billion yuan, reaching a record high. The company’s new production capacity has been promoted in an orderly manner. In 2021, Sichuan Meishan base 60000 T / a PBAT biodegradable polyester project and 10000 t / a lithium battery ternary cathode battery material project have been successfully put into operation; 400000 T / a MDI project of Fujian base and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) T / a MDI project of Ningbo base are under continuous construction; The company invested 1.927 billion yuan to build a 250000 T / a TDI expansion project in Fujian Industrial Park. The project and Fujian 800000 T / a PVC project have been started on February 7, 2022, of which the TDI project is expected to be put into operation in 2023. With new projects reaching production capacity one after another, the company’s competitive advantage is expected to continue to enhance. Under the double carbon background, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) ‘s MDI, as an excellent thermal insulation material, is expected to usher in a period of demand explosion. Because the company has the ability of R & D and innovation, can expand capacity and grow without worry, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) .
Private refining ushered in a good opportunity for development. The prosperity of large-scale refining and chemical projects itself is at the middle and lower level in history. At present, it is gradually extending to the downstream. A series of new chemical material projects are expected to be implemented and the growth capacity will rise again. Enterprises such as Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) , etc. are recommended. Satellite chemical phase I ethylene project is gradually put into operation. The route of importing low-cost ethane from the United States to produce low-carbon olefins has been opened. The company is expected to continue to expand production capacity and expand downstream with low-cost raw materials, which deserves special attention.
The leading development of coal chemical industry has ushered in a turnaround. With the relaxation of the policy on energy consumption of raw materials, the coal chemical projects blocked in the early stage are expected to be implemented, and the growth of enterprises such as Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , Luxi Chemical Group Co.Ltd(000830) , etc. is prominent.
The tire industry has entered the strategic layout period. We judge that 2021q4 is the lowest point of the industry, and the profit of 2022q1 tire industry begins to improve. Based on three judgments, first, the supply shrinks, and small and medium-sized tire enterprises begin to shut down. According to Zhuo Chuang information data, the operating rate of China’s semi steel tire enterprises this week was 72.38%, up 2.95 percentage points from last week and down 1.58 percentage points from the same period last year. This week, the operating load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong was 56.22%, up 4.51 percentage points from last week and down 22.37 percentage points from the same period last year. This week, China’s all steel tire market is advancing well, and the market trading is gradually improving; Second, the price of sea freight has been loosened. According to Bloomberg, the FBX index from China to the West US port last week was US $1602430/feu, down – 2.01% from last week; The FBX index from China to Meidong port was US $1735880/feu, down from – 5.82% last week; The FBX index from China to Europe was US $1273940/feu, down from – 4.80% last week. Third, in December 2021, China’s monthly output of commercial vehicles was 380000, an increase of 7.7% month on month, the output of automobiles was 2.91 million, an increase of 12.5% month on month, and the output of trucks was 331000, an increase of 6.9% month on month. The bottom of the tire is reversed. Under the background of supply contraction and demand improvement, according to incomplete statistics of China tire commercial WeChat official account, 32 tire enterprises announced the price increase in 2022. Overall, the price increase of this round is more than 2%-5%, and the highest increase is 10%. Nine tire enterprises in foreign markets have announced price increases, with a maximum price increase of 16%. We believe that the profit margin level of tires will gradually recover. In the long run, Chinese tire enterprises have outstanding cost performance advantages in the middle and low-end market, import substitution in the high-end market through channel strength, and the two major trends of internationalization and branding are irreversible. Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) , Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) , Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) . These three enterprises have a significant expansion of overseas production capacity in 2022, as well as rubber additive enterprises Shandong Yanggu Huatai Chemical Co.Ltd(300121) , conveyor belt enterprises Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co.Ltd(002381) .
The prosperity of phosphorus chemical industry is sustainable, and the transformation of new energy is in progress. The price of phosphate rock continues to rise. According to Zhuo Chuang information, it has increased from 360 yuan / ton at the end of 2020 to 647.5 yuan / ton at present, an increase of 80%; The price of yellow phosphorus was adjusted back to 35200 yuan / ton, up 43% from 24700 yuan / ton in August 2021; Enterprises with industrial chain integration will benefit. In addition, the export volume of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate and compound fertilizer decreased significantly in August 2021, and the export was limited. As a compound fertilizer industry with squeezed terminal profits, the profits gradually improved.
In the first half of 2022, iron phosphate of Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) and Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) will be put into operation, and the phosphorus chemical industry chain is still in the transition period from traditional fertilizer industry to new energy materials. We focus on phosphorus chemical enterprises with industrial chain integration and fast transformation speed, including Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) , Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) , Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) , Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Shenzhen Batian Ecotypic Engineering Co.Ltd(002170) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Shanghai Zhongyida Co.Ltd(600610) Shanghai Zhongyida Co.Ltd(600610) merger draft has been released.
At the same time, recommend Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , the rising price of sugar substitutes Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) , Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) and Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , which can maintain performance growth under the pressure of rising raw material prices, and Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) , which expand to new energy materials.
At present, we believe that China’s leading companies have the ability to plan a global blueprint and move towards global leaders. We suggest that we should work with excellent enterprises and invest in those enterprises with efficient execution. This efficient ability will make the profitability of Chinese enterprises higher than that of international competitors, with higher rate of return and larger scale in the future. Therefore, the market value level of foreign giants may not be the ceiling of Chinese Enterprises. For example, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , which is building an integrated industrial chain, continuously increasing R & D investment, expanding in multiple categories and marching towards a first-class chemical new material company with global operation, has made a synchronous breakthrough in original packaging replacement, China and foreign countries go hand in hand, pointed to Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) , the top five in the global tire industry in 2030, and Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) and Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) with high starting point, high standard and high efficiency.
We focus on the leaders in various sub sectors that are still underrated. For example, the Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) \ , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ), Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) and Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) , rubber auxiliary faucet Shandong Yanggu Huatai Chemical Co.Ltd(300121) For a long- 7 , plant growth regulator faucet Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical Co.Ltd(002749) , titanium dioxide faucet Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) , spandex and adipic acid faucet Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) Organic fine chemicals leader Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , dicamba enterprise Jiangsu Changqing Agrochemical Co.Ltd(002391) , oil chemical leader Zanyu Technology Group Co.Ltd(002637) etc.
U.S. Commerce Department of the U.S. Department of Commerce, the local time 2020. On May 15, 2020, the local time of the U.S. Department of Commerce in the U.S. Department of Commerce in the U.S. on May 15, 2020. A statement released on May 15, 2020 May 15, the local time of the U.S. Department of Commerce on May 15, 2020 May 15, 2020, the local time of the local time of the local time of the U.S. Department of Commerce on May 15, 2020. A statement released on May 15, 2020. A statement released on May 15, 2020. A statement said that it would comprehensively restrict Huawei from purchasing semiconthat use U.S. software and technology to produce semiconthat uses U.S. software and technology. The strategic position of semiconductor materials is becoming increasingly prominent, and the strategic position of semiconductor materials is becoming increasingly prominent. It is suggested to focus on the proposal to focus attention on companies such as Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) 83 Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) 83838383838323 the. In addition, we hope that the new materials will continue to expand continuously, and have strong technical content of polymer anti-aging leader Rianlon Corporation(300596) , thermoplastic elastomer head Shandong Dawn Polymer Co.Ltd(002838) , brine extraction lithium technology leader Sunresin New Materials Co.Ltd Xi’An(300487) .
Key target information tracking
[ Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) ] according to Zhuo Chuang information, the price of pure MDI was 22500 yuan / ton on March 25, down 500 yuan / ton from March 18; The price of polymerized MDI was 19150 yuan / ton, an increase of 825 yuan / ton compared with March 18. On March 22, the official website of Meishan Municipal People’s Government publicized the environmental impact assessment of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (Sichuan) 75000 T / a polylactic acid integration project for the first time. The company plans to build 75000 T / a polylactic acid production capacity and other supporting facilities in Meishan, Sichuan.
[ Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) ] according to Bloomberg, the FBX index from China to the West US port this week was US $160243/feu, down – 2.01% from last week; The FBX index from China to Meidong port was US $1735880/feu, down from – 5.82% last week; The FBX index from China to Europe was US $1273940/feu, down from – 4.80% last week. On March 24, the company announced that from March 18, 2022 to March 23, 2022, Linglong group had increased its holdings of 3.43 million shares in the company through the centralized bidding trading system of Shanghai Stock Exchange, accounting for 0.25% of the total share capital of the company. The cumulative increase amount has exceeded 50% of the lower limit of the planned increase amount range. The increase plan has not been implemented yet. China’s rubber tire exports totaled 1 million 140 thousand tons in 2022, according to the WeChat commercial official account, which increased by 1.8% over the same period in 1-2 months. The total export amount was 2.9083 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%.
[ Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) ] on March 24, 2022, the company said on the SSE e interactive platform that on December 9, 2021, the company, together with Guangdong new energy vehicle development service center and Shenzhen Nanshan Transportation Co., Ltd., jointly carried out the Shenzhen green travel road test. According to the current test results, the power consumption of liquid gold tires per 100 kilometers is 12.26% lower than its original tires (corresponding to 2.04 degrees of power saving).
[ Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) ] on March 22, the company said on the investor interaction platform that the aircraft tires suitable for ARJ21-700 developed and produced by the company have been officially supplied to COMAC.
[ Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ] according to Zhuo Chuang information, the inventory of polyester filament on March 24 was 27.3 days, down 0.9 days month on month; Pta3’s inventory on June 25 was 3.06 million tons, with a month on month decrease of 201000 tons. On March 25, the price of polyester filament FDY was 8775 yuan / ton, an increase of 275 yuan / ton compared with March 18; On March 25, PTA price was 6295 yuan / ton, up 295 yuan / ton from March 18.
Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , according to the global engineering WeChat official account, in March 21st, the 140 million tons / year high pressure polyethylene (LDPE) device designed by the global Daqing company successfully opened up the whole process and produced high-quality LDPE product particles. Currently, the two phase projects of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company are being put into operation gradually.
[ Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) ] on March 24, the company announced that Honghai new material (Suqian), a secondary wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, plans to invest 6.655 billion yuan to build an intelligent functional fiber project with an annual output of 1 million tons. The project is planned to be implemented in two phases, and the construction period of each phase is planned to be two years.
At the same time, in order to further improve the comprehensive competitive strength and profitability of the enterprise, Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) Hongke new materials, a three-level holding subsidiary of the company, plans to invest 7.471 billion yuan to build a degradable material project (phase I), mainly including 340000 T / a maleic anhydride plant, 300000 t / a BDO plant, 180000 T / a PBAT plant and public and auxiliary facilities. The construction period of the project is three years.
[ Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) ] on March 22, the company issued an announcement that the application for public issuance of convertible corporate bonds was approved by the development and Examination Commission of the CSRC. Recently, the company received the approval on approving Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) public issuance of convertible corporate bonds issued by the CSRC, which approved the company to issue convertible corporate bonds with a total face value of 3 billion yuan to the public for a period of 6 years.
[ Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ] on March 22, the company issued an announcement on the first repurchase of the company’s shares. On March 21, the company implemented the first repurchase. The number of shares repurchased for the first time through centralized bidding transaction was 4.2 million, accounting for 0.174% of the company’s total share capital. The lowest transaction price was 17.84 yuan / share, the highest transaction price was 18.00 yuan / share, and the total amount paid was 752113 million yuan.
[ Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ] there is no update message.
[ Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) ] according to Baichuan information, the price of monoammonium phosphate this week was 3437.8 yuan / ton, up 186 yuan / ton month on month; The price of compound fertilizer was 3384.2 yuan / ton, up 33.8 yuan / ton month on month.
[ Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) ] the company recently received a notice from Ms. Mou Jiayun, a shareholder holding more than 5% of the company’s shares, and learned that Ms. Mou Jiayun lifted the pledge of some of her shares in the company in advance: the number of pledged shares lifted this time is 3.5 million, accounting for 3.30% of her shares and 0.35% of the total share capital of the company.
[ Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) ] on March 21, the company announced that the production line of phase I (25000 tons per year) of the artificial graphite cathode material project for lithium ion batteries invested and constructed by Henan Zhongtan new materials, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, was in trial production
