Report summary:
On Friday, the average selling price of three yuan pigs abroad was 12.27 yuan / kg, up 2.68% from last Friday. Pig prices this week stopped falling and turned up compared with last week. Due to the severe impact of covid-19 epidemic situation, pork consumption in the market continued to be under pressure. In the first half of the week, the price of pigs mainly fell below. The wholesale price of pork in the national Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) market monitored by the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas once fell below 18 yuan / kg. With the continuous closure and control in various places, the traffic has been controlled for a long time, the time of pig slaughter and transportation has been prolonged, the arrival in the sales area has been reduced, the price has risen, and the price in the surrounding areas has been driven up. On March 22, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas held a department coordination meeting in Beijing to analyze the current situation of pig production and study measures to stabilize pig production. The meeting called for strengthening the information monitoring and early warning of the whole pig industry chain, actively guiding financial institutions to increase credit policy support, stabilize long-term support policies such as breeding land and environmental protection, accurately implement the regulation of pig production capacity and the regulation of frozen pork collection and storage, continue to pay attention to the prevention and control of African swine fever, and promote the stable and healthy development of pig production.
We believe that the short-term fluctuation of pig price is difficult to change the general trend of capacity removal. Under the continuous large losses of the industry, the trend of capacity removal is highly deterministic, and the accumulation potential of capacity removal will eventually lead to the arrival of the turning point of the cycle. At the current time point, we continue to focus on the pig breeding sector. We believe that at this stage, the inflection point of the cycle is expected to gradually increase. Although the sector has increased significantly, the de novo average market value dimension is still in the bottom range. Continue to recommend and pay attention to the breeding head enterprises with obvious advantages in cost control, and then pay attention to the second-line and small American Standard enterprises with dilemma reversal, large cost improvement expectation and uncertain growth. Highlight Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , etc.
Market review:
Among the sub industries of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery this week, the weekly increases and decreases are as follows: planting industry 7.93%, fishery 4.95%, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing 4.48%, livestock and poultry breeding 3.75%, feed 2.53% and animal health - 0.05%. Among the companies in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry this week, the top five companies are: Hainan Jingliang Holdings Co.Ltd(000505) 34.27%, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) 20.63%, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) 15.34%, Shenzhen Kingkey Smart Agriculture Times Co.Ltd(000048) 15.24%, Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) 15.24%; The top five companies are: Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) -3.41%, Fujian Jinsen Forestry Co.Ltd(002679) -3.69%, Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) -4.09%, ST toyo-5.61%, Shandong Bailong Chuangyuan Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(605016) -7.46%.
Key tracking:
None
Key recommendations:
[key recommendations] Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) , Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201)
[suggestions for attention] Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) , Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) , Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526)
Risk tips: the risk of livestock and poultry price fluctuation, the impact of extreme weather, the impact of animal diseases, etc.
