Key investment points
In terms of coal price fluctuation, the international coal price remained high, and the impact of coal transportation strategy remained high this week; In terms of coking coal, due to the impact of the epidemic, the commencement of downstream steel mills is limited, and the market fluctuates and adjusts. Last weekend, Tangshan issued a document requiring to apply for passes for key industrial enterprises, which may help to reduce the impact of the epidemic on steel production. On the whole, the current demand for replenishment is large, the import replenishment is difficult, and the callback range of coal price is expected to be controllable and limited. The Q1 performance of coal enterprises is expected to be very bright, and the price of Q2 long-term association is difficult to retreat. The Q2 performance is expected to continue to be high. Recently, coal enterprises have successively published the annual reports of 2021, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) plans to pay a dividend of 25.4 yuan for every 10 shares, with a total dividend of 50.5 billion yuan, with a dividend rate of 100.4%, corresponding to 9.3% of a dividend rate and 14% of H shares. The coal industry is expected to have a high medium and long-term price without large capital expenditure, Sustained high returns to investors will be a major feature of the industry. Overall, the stock capacity is a scarce resource. Coal stocks are generally valued at 4-6 times, and the stability of price and profit expectations is improved. It is suggested to actively layout coal stocks in 2022. In terms of individual stock recommendation, companies with a high proportion of long-term association have more stable performance growth, companies with a high proportion of coal in the market have more attractive valuation, and companies with large advantages of coal types or logic of output growth have strong competitiveness α In addition, coal stocks that actively layout energy transformation will also get the opportunity to improve their valuation. Thermal coal stocks are suggested to focus on: Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) , power investment energy. Metallurgical coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) , Shanxi Coking Co.Ltd(600740) . Anthracite recommended attention: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) . Coke stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group, Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.Ltd(600997) , Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) .
Summary and Prospect of thermal coal: ports and pits continue to rise. This week, affected by the strict investigation of medium and long-term contract performance by coal mines in the producing area, the market supply is tight, and the pit mouth price rises by 30-70 yuan. In terms of supply, due to the limited production of environmental protection inspection in some open-pit coal mines, combined with the shortage of coal management tickets at the end of the month and the impact of medium and long-term contract supervision, the supply of coal mines in the main production areas is still tight. Affected by the epidemic, downstream industries have shut down, and some power plants have arranged maintenance, so there are few transactions, but the problem of structural coal shortage is not changed. In terms of import, at present, the demand of Europe and other countries is gradually slowing down, and China’s inquiry is also dominated by low calorie coal, but the short-term imported power coal price is still supported. In terms of demand, after entering the traditional off-season, the daily consumption of the power plant is reduced and the procurement rhythm is suspended. However, considering the actual inventory level of the power plant, there is still rigid demand in the follow-up. After that, we need to pay attention to the changes of downstream demand and inventory.
Summary and Prospect of coking coal: affected by the epidemic, the coking coal market fluctuated. The prices of some coal types fell this week. The coal types with reduced prices are mainly low sulfur main coking coal, fat coal and some gas coal with a large increase in the early stage, with an overall decline of about 100300 yuan / ton. The price of hard coking coal in Fengjing mine in the world decreased by 12.89% on a weekly basis. In terms of supply, most areas operate normally, while Inner Mongolia has limited coal mine production due to environmental protection inspection, and the overall supply side continues to be tight; International supply is also generally tight, and coking coal prices are still high. In terms of importing Mongolian coal, Ganqi Maodu port cleared 212 vehicles per day (week on week + 21 vehicles) on the 4th of this week, and the customs clearance volume continued to rise at a low level. However, due to the poor willingness of traders to receive goods, the quotation was lower. In terms of demand, affected by the epidemic, the production of coke enterprises decreased, the trans provincial transportation was blocked, the downstream receiving was cautious, and the procurement of coke enterprises slowed down. On March 24, Tangshan Bureau of industry and information technology issued an urgent letter on handling passes for key industrial enterprises, which may reduce the impact of the epidemic on steel production. Then continue to pay attention to the shipment and downstream demand.
Summary and Prospect of coke: the supply and demand side is loose in the short term, and pay attention to the impact of the epidemic. As of March 25, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 3600 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. In terms of supply, with the multi-point outbreak of the epidemic, affected by the interruption of automobile transportation and tight transportation capacity, coke enterprises in the central and western regions have accumulated warehouses. Although the arrival of raw materials is insufficient and the operating load has decreased significantly, the overall supply side still tends to be loose. On the demand side, the downstream steel mills often stopped work and slowed down construction under the influence of the epidemic, and were forced to reduce production due to lack of raw materials; After considering the downstream replenishment demand, some traders in the port still have a small number of transactions. On the whole, the epidemic disrupted the original market supply and demand pattern, and the demand was compressed in the short term. In the follow-up, we will continue to pay attention to the shipment and steel plant production.
Power coal: the port coal price rises and the port inventory decreases. (1) As of March 25, the price of 5500 kcal Shanxi thermal coal was 1575 yuan / ton, up 55 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. (2) As of March 4, the price of power coal in Newcastle was US $347.90/ton, up 42.4% week on week. (3) From March 21 to 25, the average transfer volume of Qinhuangdao port railway was 519800 tons, with a decrease of 14200 tons on a weekly basis. The average throughput of Qinhuangdao coal port was 531800 tons, an increase of 17800 tons on a weekly basis. (4) As of March 25, the inventory of Qinhuangdao port was 5.05 million tons, with a decrease of 90000 tons on a weekly basis. The coal inventory in the Yangtze River Estuary was 2.72 million tons, an increase of 230000 tons on a weekly basis
Coking coal: the price of coking coal in China has decreased, and the inventory of coking plants has decreased month on month. (1) As of March 25, the price increase (including tax) of the main coking coal depot produced in Shanxi of Jingtang Port was 3350 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. (2) As of March 24, the price of hard coking coal in Fengjing mine was US $603.75/ton, down 12.89% on a weekly basis; The price of low volatile injection coal was US $304 / ton, with a decrease of 2.25% on a weekly basis. (3) As of March 25, the total inventory of coking coal of China’s independent coking plants (100) was 11.51 million tons, with a decrease of 24000 tons on a weekly basis, 15.20 days of available coking coal and a decrease of 0.30 days on a weekly basis.
Coke: the price was flat month on month, and the operating rate of coking plant increased. (1) As of March 25, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 3600 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. (2) The coke oven productivity of China’s independent coking plants (100) was 78.00%, with a week on month increase of 1.10%; (3) As of March 25, the operating rate of major rebar mills in China was 55.41%, with a decrease of 0.33% on a weekly basis. (4) As of March 25, the coke inventory of China’s sample steel mills (110) was 6.9825 million tons, down 485300 tons on a weekly basis; As of March 25, the total coke inventory of three types of coking enterprises (production capacity 1 million tons; production capacity 1-2 million tons; production capacity 2 million tons) was 731000 tons, an increase of 87000 tons on a weekly basis.
Review of industry highlights: (1) modern energy in the 14th five year plan: give priority to green and low-carbon energy supply security and stability; (2) a roof accident occurred in Tongxin coal mine in Anshun, Guizhou, resulting in one death; (3) the national thermal power generation reached a record high in the first two months; (4) the national railway will implement a new train diagram from April 8, and the power coal transportation capacity will be further improved; (5) the Indonesian government plans to increase the proportion of DMO supply to 30%
Risk warning: the economic growth rate is lower than expected; Excessive policy regulation; Renewable energy substitution, etc; Risk of coal import impact.
