Market review: last week, the electrical equipment sector closed at 114453, down – 3.76%. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 321224, down – 1.19%; Shenzhen composite index closed at 1207273, down – 2.08%; The CSI 300 index closed at 417457, down – 2.14%; The gem index closed at 263794, down – 2.8%.
In terms of sub sectors, the photovoltaic equipment sector fell – 6.28%, with the largest decline; Wind power equipment sector fell – 5.55%; Battery sector fell – 3.58%; Power grid equipment sector fell – 1.79%; The motor sector fell – 0.15%, with the largest increase; Other power equipment sectors fell – 1.31%.
Investment suggestion: the adjustment range of electrical equipment sector was large last week, and the performance was slightly worse than the market index. All segments fell. We believe that after recent continuous adjustment, the valuation of Dianxin sector has returned to reasonable, and there is limited room for decline in the future. It is suggested to actively pay attention to the leading targets of each subdivided sector. At present, the photovoltaic sector is still strongly recommended. The performance probability in the first quarter is higher than expected, and the growth certainty of the sector in the future is the highest. In the global environment of high oil and gas prices, it is strongly recommended to actively layout the photovoltaic sector; The valuation of the new energy vehicle sector has reached a stage low. We expect that the sales volume data in March and April will have significant month on month growth, and there may be rebound opportunities in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of high nickel ternary and undervalued copper foil.
New energy: Tongwei announced a profit of 4.9-5.2 billion yuan in the first quarter, mainly due to the higher than expected photovoltaic installation. The “14th five year plan” for modern energy system was issued, which continues the previous new energy development plan, with no reduction in carbon emission reduction, ensuring China’s new installed capacity demand. We believe that in the short term, the probability of photovoltaic data in the first quarter is higher than expected. With the continuous release of new silicon production capacity, the supply side is gradually abundant, which is expected to drive the growth of downstream demand. In the long run, the global PV installed capacity is expected to exceed 200GW in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of more than 30%. At present, there are investment opportunities in the whole PV sector. The order of segment segmentation is silicon battery silicon wafer module. It is recommended to actively layout companies with alpha.
Wind power: in the global environment of carbon emission reduction, it also plays an important role as photovoltaic, and the long-term trend is good. However, the short-term performance is affected by the price rise of upstream raw materials and the price reduction of downstream host machines, so it is difficult to achieve high growth. At present, the valuation is at a reasonable level. It is suggested to pay attention to the catalysis brought to the sector by the future bidding situation of the industry and the price trend of raw materials.
New energy vehicles: at present, the price rise of automobile enterprises intensifies the rush buying tide in March, and the sales data in March and April are expected to exceed expectations. Considering that the current gasoline price is at a high level and the new energy vehicles still have strong economy, it is expected that the impact of the current round of price rise on the order volume will remain in the emotional side and be digested in the second quarter. In the long run, due to the impact of lithium supply, the growth rate of global sales may be lower than expected, and the possibility of sector opportunities is low. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of technology replacement and capacity tension. It is recommended that the domestic aluminum-plastic film sector may replace the accelerated aluminum-plastic film sector this year.
Power equipment: last week, the overall international commodity prices remained stable, the prices of copper, aluminum and steel were adjusted at a high level, and the price of nickel rose again. It is still difficult to predict the subsequent price change trend and continue to follow up.
Combination of this week: Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) , Crown Advanced Material Co.Ltd(688560) , Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) .
Risk warning: the risk that the growth rate of the industry is lower than expected; Risk of policy uncertainty; The risk of price decline due to fierce market competition
