Key investment points
The first round of centralized land supply in Xiamen and Hefei has warmed up, and the proportion of land taken by local real estate enterprises is high. 1) Xiamen: 9 of the 10 homesteads were successfully transferred, including 6 Premium transactions, and 2 plots reached the maximum price + lottery transactions. The overall premium rate rose to 7%, which was significantly higher than that in the third round of last year. In addition to the two plots of Jindi and Zhonghai lottery, the other seven plots were won by local real estate enterprises, such as Jianfa, ITC and Wantai, accounting for nearly 80%. Jianfa became the largest buyer in the local auction. It won three high-quality homesteads on the island with 9.44 billion yuan, accounting for as much as 60% of the total amount of the local auction. 2) Hefei: in this round of land auction, a total of 24 cases including residential land (including 2 cases of pure rental housing) and 8 cases of land mass auction (second delayed land mass) were sold, with a total transaction amount of 18.962 billion yuan and a total construction area of 2.268 million square meters. 15 plots entered the competitive quality link, and the overall premium rate reached 11.2%, ranking the highest among the cities with centralized land supply in 2022. The performance of local real estate enterprises was relatively positive. Among the 15 competitive quality plots, Anhui Bangtai, Anhui Tianfu, Anhui land and other local private enterprises won 9.
Local government policies continue to be relaxed, and the scope has been expanded to the strongest second tier cities. Policy easing began to focus on the third and fourth tier cities. At present, it has expanded to the strong second tier cities. Recently, the mortgage interest rates of strong second tier cities such as Suzhou, Hangzhou, Nanjing and Wuhan have been reduced. The first home loan interest rate of local banks in Hangzhou has generally been reduced from about 5.7% a month ago to about 5.3% at present; The loan interest rate of the second house has been reduced from the previous 5.9% to the current 5.5%. The loan interest rate of the first house of some banks in Suzhou has been reduced to 4.6%, which is the same as LPR. The interest rate of the first house of some banks in Nanjing has further decreased, and the lowest has been reduced to 5.4%. When purchasing the second house, the loan that has been paid off or has no loan record can be paid according to the down payment ratio of 50% (30 percentage points lower than the previous), and the loan interest rate shall be implemented according to the interest rate of the first house. Most banks in Wuhan cut the mortgage interest rate by 5.2% for the first house and 5.4% for the second house. The deregulation of property market policies in hot second tier cities will not only help stimulate market transactions, but also serve as a wind vane for the market.
The cumulative sales area in March was – 46% year-on-year and + 9% month on month. According to the statistics of commercial housing transactions in 43 cities across the country, the cumulative transaction area in March (as of the 26th) was – 45.8% year-on-year and + 9.4% month on month. Among them, the first tier cities were – 40.5% year-on-year and + 7.6% month on month; Second tier cities were – 41.0% year-on-year and + 19.9% month on month; The third and fourth tier cities had a year-on-year increase of – 56.0% and a month on month increase of – 6.1%. The first tier cities, except Shanghai, all recovered significantly, of which Beijing recovered significantly, with a month on month increase of + 73.4%; In the statistical second tier cities, except Hangzhou and Nanjing, other cities showed month on month growth; The performance of the third and fourth tier cities is different. On the whole, the performance of cities in the Yangtze River Delta, Dawan district and other regions is relatively good.
Investment suggestion: we think we should pay attention to four main investment lines at present: 1) development enterprises: Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co.Ltd(000069) , China Resources Land, Longhu group, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Xuhui holdings, China Construction Development International Holdings, Shenzhen New Nanshan Holding (Group) Co.Ltd(002314) , etc; 2) Property management enterprises: Country Garden service, China Resources Vientiane life, Jinke service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, etc; 3) Track transformation Enterprises: Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) , Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) etc; 4) Real estate brokerage Enterprises: shells, etc.
Risk tips: project delivery risk, project sales collection risk, industry policy regulation risk.
