Investment advice
On board connector: the demand for high-voltage connector benefits from the drive of electrification, the industry CAGR exceeds 40% and the industry localization rate is 25% in the next five years, the demand for high-speed connector benefits from the drive of intelligence, the industry CAGR exceeds 40% and the industry localization rate is 10% in the next five years, and the demand for low-voltage connector remains unchanged and the localization rate is 10%. Thanks to the iteration of the competition pattern of vehicle manufacturers, automobile connector related enterprises have ushered in historic opportunities. Long term optimistic about Suzhou Recodeal Interconnect System Co.Ltd(688800) (vehicle high-voltage business revenue accounts for 75%) and high-speed connector leader Electric Connector Technology Co.Ltd(300679) (vehicle high-speed business revenue accounts for 10%).
On board optics: intelligent driving is in the ascendant, and on-board optics continues to upgrade. In 2020, there will be only 2 cameras on a single vehicle in the world, and the number of cameras on new force models will generally reach 8 ~ 13, and the industry CAGR will reach 40% in the next five years. Sun woo optical technology, the leader of optics, has long been optimistic (the revenue of vehicle optics accounts for 8% and the global market share of vehicle lens exceeds 30%).
On board display: in the short term, we are optimistic about the demand for display screen driven by automobile intelligence (large screen + multi screen). In the long term, we are optimistic that the screen factory will extend to the field of downstream on-board display system with the help of screen resources and seize the share of traditional Tier1 in the 100 billion market. It is recommended to pay attention to BOE Jingdian (vehicle mounted large-size display faucet).
Industry comments
New energy vehicle Q1 is not light in the off-season. After the price rise, we pay attention to the differentiation of brand sales. 1) From January to February in 2022, the output of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles reached 820000, with an increase of 159%, and the sales volume reached 770000, with an increase of 165%. From March 1 to March 20, a total of 270000 new energy vehicles were insured. It is estimated that the number of insured vehicles in March will reach 400000, and the sales volume in the first quarter will reach 1.2 million, an increase of 140% at the same time. 2) Since March, affected by the sharp rise in raw material prices, nearly 20 new energy vehicle enterprises have announced price increases, including Byd Company Limited(002594) , GAC, Tesla, Xiaopeng, Zero run and Weima. Affected by the price rise, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2022 is expected to be different. It is suggested to grasp the supply chain opportunities of leading enterprises (Tesla, Byd Company Limited(002594) ) with stronger growth certainty. 3) On the 25th, Weilai released its annual financial report. It is expected that the delivery volume of Q1 will be 25000 ~ 26000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 25% ~ 30%. It is expected to be based on nt2.5% in 2022 0 three new models will be delivered, of which et7 will be delivered at the end of March, Q3 production capacity will be reached, et5 will be delivered in September, ES7 will be delivered in Q3, and more than 1300 replacement power stations will be built in 2022.
BOE Jingdian's performance is outstanding, and Shunyu optical technology's vehicle optical multi-point flowering. 1) BOE Jingdian: in 2021, the company's revenue was HK $7.7 billion, with an increase of 71%, the parent company's performance was HK $330 million, with an increase of 378%, and the net interest rate reached 4.2%, the highest level in the past six years. In 2021, the company's on-board revenue accounted for 84%, an increase of 89%, the company's new energy vehicle customer revenue accounted for 15%, and the coverage of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicle products exceeded 30%. 2) Shunyu optical technology: in 2021, the company's vehicle optical revenue accounted for 8%. It is estimated that the shipment of vehicle lens will increase by 20% ~ 30% in 2022, and the revenue of vehicle camera module will exceed 1 billion yuan. At present, lidar has been designated by more than 20 projects.
Market Review
On March 16, with the sound of the financial commission and the rebound of the stock index, the auto electronic leader, Suzhou Recodeal Interconnect System Co.Ltd(688800) rose 23%, Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) rose 10% and BOE Jingdian rose 48%, leading the car connector and car display industry. During this period, the on-board connector industry fell by 0.1%, the on-board optical industry rose by 4.6%, and the on-board display industry rose by 3.3%.
Risk tip: electrification and intellectualization are not as expected, industry competition intensifies, and technology iteration risks.
