Core view
In the short term, focus on Simulation and the prosperity of power semiconductors, and in the medium term, focus on the low configuration value of consumer electronics. In the past week, the Shanghai stock index fell 1.19%, the electronics industry fell 3.10%, other electronics in the sub industry fell 0.14%, semiconductors fell 4.77%, electronics fell 23.01% since the beginning of the year, ranking the first in the whole industry, and the valuation of the sector is at an all-time low. In the context of repeated Sino US trade frictions and volatile multilateral situation, it is still recommended to focus on the leading direction of "simulation, power and IC equipment" with high prosperity, low impact of downstream demand from the single market and high certainty of performance. At the same time, combined with the historical valuation performance, considering the growth potential of aiot category expansion of consumer electronics enterprises in the "electronics +" era and the event catalysis represented by vivo folding screen new machine (released next week), it is suggested to pay attention to the low configuration value of the consumer electronics sector.
In 22 years, the scale of global analog chips will increase by 12% to US $83.2 billion. St informed Q2 of the price increase of all products. According to IC insights, the sales of analog chips increased by 30% to US $74.1 billion in 2021, and is expected to increase by 12% to a new high of US $83.2 billion in 2022, of which the shipment increased by 11% to 238.7 billion, and the average price increased by 1% to us $0.35. On March 24, STM announced that due to the shortage of products and the increase of upstream costs, it would raise the prices of all product lines in 2q22, including existing undelivered orders. In the context of rising global semiconductor manufacturing costs and continuous structural shortage of products, we are optimistic about the acceleration of domestic substitution in the analog chip market and continue to recommend Sg Micro Corp(300661) , Wuxi Chipown Micro-Electronics Limited(688508) , Wuxi Etek Microelectronics Co.Ltd(688601) , Shanghai Awinic Technology Co.Ltd(688798) , Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , etc.
There is a strong demand for downstream new energy vehicles, and the production of power semiconductors continues to expand. In February, the cumulative carrying capacity of electric motor control of new energy passenger vehicles in China was 271000, a year-on-year increase of 140%; Among them, the third-party suppliers represented by Huichuan maintained a leading position, with a year-on-year increase of more than 500%. In this context, power semiconductor enterprises have expanded their production: Toshiba announced that its subsidiary would invest US $840 million in the new fiscal year starting in April to increase manufacturing equipment and a new production line to expand its capacity of power semiconductor devices; After upgrading, the company's production capacity will increase by about 150%. Considering the current strong downstream demand and the production expansion of power semiconductor manufacturers is not in place, we continue to recommend power semiconductor manufacturers Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) etc. that provide supporting facilities for major third-party motor and electronic control suppliers and continuously release production capacity in a short time.
In February, China's mobile phone shipments decreased by 31.7% year-on-year. It is suggested to pay attention to the glory and folding screen industry chain. According to the data of China Academy of communications and communications, the shipment volume of mobile phones in China market in February was 14.864 million, a year-on-year decrease of 31.7%; Among them, the shipment volume of domestic brands decreased by 34.7% year-on-year, and that of overseas brands decreased by 5.1% year-on-year; From January to February, the shipment volume of mobile phones in the Chinese market was 47.886 million, a year-on-year decrease of 22.6%. Under the repeated impact of covid-19 epidemic in China and the pressure on the overall shipment of smart phones, we continue to recommend that the recent event catalytic factors are frequent in the consumer electronics sector. In 2022, we have the honor of exceeding the expected performance potential and in the stage of "quantitative change leading to qualitative change", and the folding screen industry chain. Relevant companies include Dbg Technology Co.Ltd(300735) , Jiangsu Gian Technology Co.Ltd(300709) , Kunshan Kersen Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603626) , Wuhu Token Sciences Co.Ltd(300088) , etc.
Samsung display will completely shut down the LCD panel production line in June 2022. According to the bell report, Samsung display (SDC) will stop LCD panel production in l8-2 factory in June, marking the complete withdrawal of its LCD business. According to the calculation, we predict that the global large-size LCD production area in 2022 will increase by 4.17% compared with that in 2021, among which the production capacity of 1q22, 2q22, 3q22 and 4q22 will change by 1.31%, 0.22%, 2.58% and 2.28% respectively month on month. We believe that with the end of LCD production expansion, the industry will shift from the supply side to the demand side (large size, high-end and diversification), and the industry cycle attribute will be weakened. The LCD industry chain suggests paying attention to BOE A and TCL technology.
Key portfolio
Consumer electronics: Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) Avary Holding (Shenzhen) Co.Limited(002938) , Shenzhen Transsion Holdings Co.Ltd(688036) , Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , Boe Technology Group Co.Ltd(000725) , Hongli Zhihui Group Co.Ltd(300219) , Suzhou Shihua New Material Technology Co.Ltd(688093) , Kunshan Kersen Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603626) , Shenzhen Everwin Precision Technology Co.Ltd(300115) , Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100)
Semiconductor: Sg Micro Corp(300661) \ , 3Peak Incorporated(688536) , Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) , Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) , Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) , Jcet Group Co.Ltd(600584) , Sai Microelectronics Inc(300456)
Equipment and materials: Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) , Hangzhou Lion Electronics Co.Ltd(605358) , Anji Microelectronics Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688019) , Hubei Dinglong Co.Ltd(300054) , Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) , National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) , Zhejiang Mtcn Technology Co.Ltd(003026) Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) , Shenzhen Yanmade Technology Inc(688312) passive parts: Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co.Ltd(002484) , Zhejiang Jiemei Electronic And Technology Co.Ltd(002859) , Shenzhen Sunlord Electronics Co.Ltd(002138) , Guang Dong Fenghua Advanced Technology (Holding) Co.Ltd(000636) , Chaozhou Three-Circle(Group) Co.Ltd(300408) , Tkd Science And Technology Co.Ltd(603738)
Risk warning: the epidemic situation repeatedly affects the downstream demand; Industrial development is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies
