Core view
The A-share index finally closed down this week, which can be regarded as a normal step back after oversold, and the ranking performance of the machinery industry is acceptable. We believe that in the first quarter of 2022, the pressure on China’s economy to maintain growth continued to increase, and the performance of export-oriented manufacturing industry was better than expected, but the boom fell month on month. From the perspective of fundamentals, it is necessary to pay close attention to digitization and intelligence, double carbon goal and greening, internal circulation construction and supply chain reconstruction in 2022. It is a clear three major trends at present and in the future. It focuses on the new infrastructure of China’s digital economy, advanced manufacturing special equipment such as new energy and semiconductors, the performance recovery exceeding expectations and the related targets of domestic alternative basic components that continue to be strengthened in the 14th five year plan.
This week is the fourth week of March 2022. Coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, real estate, nonferrous metals, beauty care and other sectors performed best, with positive weekly increases and decreases, while computers, power equipment, building materials, food and beverage, electronics and other sectors performed worst. Compared with last week, the seesaw effect continued this week, and the sectors with large oversold and rebound in the near future obviously stepped back. Among the concept sectors, biological breeding, feed index, pig industry, prefabricated vegetables and gold jewelry performed best; Air transportation, electronic ID card, East West calculation, stock speculation software and semiconductor silicon chip and other sectors performed the worst. Most of them were the concept sectors that led the rise last week.
This week, the market can still be regarded as a normal step back after oversold and withdrawal. From the index, it is expected to step back next week to establish whether it is a step back or a phased rebound. We should focus on whether the market trading volume can. At present, we should not be optimistic about the height. Once blocked, it may evolve into interval shock again. From the perspective of structure, the market still shows a trend of rapid rotation of rise and fall, killing the fall over the rise and making up the rise over the fall. This trend is expected to continue. In the medium term, some leading stocks may still have adjustment space and time. Affected by the delayed statement of the pilot real estate tax by relevant departments, the real estate industry chain performed well in the second half of the week. At the same time, it shows that there is still great pressure to maintain growth. It is expected that the market will still focus on the new and old infrastructure sectors related to maintaining growth.
Short term capital behavior does not change the medium-term trend. Investors should choose appropriate strategies and investment cycles according to the nature of funds. March gradually entered the forecast period of annual report and first quarter report, and performance became the core variable leading the market. However, the first quarter of 21 was mostly the high point of manufacturing performance. The sectors with good year-on-year growth of manufacturing performance in the first quarter of 22 were limited. Some upstream of Aerospace Military Industry sector and the first quarter report of civilian military enterprises may have a large probability of exceeding expectations, which can be paid appropriate attention to. Affected by the expansion of the scope and depth of sanctions against Russia, localization is still the focus of the capital market, the relevant benefit tracks will still be the focus of capital allocation, and specialization and innovation are expected to become a hot spot in the near future.
We believe that the downward systemic risk of the market will be temporarily alleviated next week. If the sector rotation is too fast, we should still control the position to defend and counterattack. The fundamental principle is to participate in the new hot spots as soon as possible, continue to avoid the sectors with funds holding together and rising too high, and operate with band ideas. For fundamental investment, we still suggest to select those specialized special new sub industries with better performance than expected in 21 years and continuous prosperity in 22 years for medium-term or above allocation. Focus on allocating oversold stocks with good fundamentals, and pay attention to sectors with strong certainty and reasonable valuation. In the medium term, we will still focus on the growth technology manufacturing enterprises matching the growth and valuation and the new high-quality track sector under the dual carbon background. We will continue to optimize the investment logic related to the import substitution logic of relevant advanced manufacturing sectors such as aerospace military industry sector (civil military participation, missile), new energy (wind power, energy storage, hydrogen energy and nuclear energy) supported by performance or growth expectations. At the same time, Continue to moderately hold the targets of the science and technology sector (third-generation semiconductor, big data, automotive intelligence, mini led and VR) at the inflection point of prosperity. The relevant marks are related to the following: Zhejiang Fenglong Electric Co.Ltd(002931) 7 etc.
Market performance
This week, the Shanghai stock index fell 1.19%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 2.14%, the gem composite fell 2.44%, and the China Securities 1000 fell 0.87%. The wind tertiary industry index machinery industry fell 1.72%, ranking 34 / 62 in the industry growth week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.53 percentage points.
In the machinery industry of the wind tertiary industry index, the top five stocks in the week were Zhejiang Tiantai Xianghe Industrial Co.Ltd(603500) , Beijing Jingcheng Machinery Electric Company Limited(600860) , Yangzhou Seashine New Materials Co.Ltd(300885) , Shenyang Yuanda Intellectual Industry Group Co.Ltd(002689) and Gem-Year Industrial Co.Ltd(601002) , with an increase of 34.27%, 24.44%, 24.21%, 14.42% and 13.89% respectively. The top five stocks with declines were Hangzhou Everfine Photo-E-Info Co.Ltd(300306) , Bisen Smart Access Co.Ltd(301083) , Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co.Ltd(605286) , Jiangsu Skyray Instrument Co.Ltd(300165) and Zhejiang Canaan Technology Limited(300412) , with declines of – 17.85%, – 3.15%, – 12.74%, – 12.11% and – 11.42% respectively.
The market index generally fell slightly this week, and the performance of the machinery sector was acceptable. The top ten companies rose by more than 10%, and the top nine companies fell by more than 10%. The overall rise of individual stocks in the industry was more or less.
Industry dynamics
\u3000\u30001. Speed up the work! The scale of construction in this new infrastructure sector during the 14th Five Year Plan period doubled (Finance Associated Press)
\u3000\u30002. Two sectors: promote the evolution of power system to adapt to large-scale and high proportion of new energy (Finance and Associated Press)
Risk tips
The promotion and implementation of industrial policies are lower than expected, the change of market style has brought down the valuation center of the machinery industry, the pressure on profitability caused by rising costs, and the systemic risk caused by the spread of epidemic abroad.
