Investment summary:
Talk every Monday:
The national development and Reform Commission issued the “14th five year plan” for modern energy system, proposing that by 2025, the proportion of non fossil energy consumption will increase to about 20% and the proportion of non fossil energy power generation will reach about 39%; Study and formulate incremental incentive policies for renewable energy consumption, promote green power certificate trading, and strengthen the guarantee of renewable energy power consumption. At the same time, it is stressed that “steady development of urban domestic waste incineration power generation” should be carried out during the 14th Five Year Plan period. It has set a moderate tone for the future development of waste incineration power generation.
During the 13th Five Year Plan period, it developed rapidly, and the capacity and proportion of waste incineration increased rapidly. The compound growth rate of waste incineration capacity in the past decade has exceeded 24%. In 2019, the proportion of municipal solid waste incineration capacity in the total municipal solid waste treatment capacity exceeded 50% for the first time.
The 14th five year plan sets development goals. In May 2021, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of housing and urban rural development jointly issued the development plan for urban domestic waste classification and treatment facilities in the 14th five year plan, which requires that by the end of 2025, the national urban domestic waste incineration capacity will reach about 800000 tons / day, and the urban domestic waste incineration capacity will account for about 65%. In 2020, China’s urban incineration capacity will total 662000 tons / day, with 138000 tons / day of room for improvement from the target of 800000 tons / day.
The incineration enterprise project has entered the stage of large-scale production, and the incremental space has been exhausted. From the perspective of the reserves of burning leading projects, the market space during the “14th five year plan” period has been almost divided up. In 2021, the newly added, under construction and planned waste incineration capacity of major incineration enterprises in A-share Hong Kong stocks reached 99000 tons / day, accounting for nearly 72% of the 138000 tons / day planning space in the 14th five year plan. During the large-scale production period in the next 1-2 years, capacity reserve will be the main driver driving the growth of incineration tasks. After the investment and production period, the incineration market will gradually enter the stage of stock M & A and operation improvement.
It has become a new business layout and a new direction for incineration enterprises. With the external market space gradually saturated, major incineration enterprises have sought new business layout. New energy related fields, such as power battery recovery, energy storage and hydrogen energy development and utilization, have become the focus of some incineration enterprises.
Investment strategy: in the field of waste incineration, it is suggested to focus on leading enterprises with sufficient reserves of recent projects, such as Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co.Ltd(603568) , Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034) .
Risk tip: policy promotion is less than expected, project development is less than expected, etc.
Market review:
Last week, Shenwan environmental protection sector rose or fell – 1.55%, ranking 20 / 31 in Shenwan level industry.
The sub sectors fell in an all-round way, and the five Shenwan III sectors of water affairs and water treatment, environmental protection equipment, atmospheric treatment, comprehensive environmental treatment and solid waste treatment fell by -0.94%, – 1.13%, – 1.17%, – 1.5% and – 2.6%.
In terms of specific stocks, Suzhou Shijing Environmental Technology Co.Ltd(301030) (11.15%), Wuhan Xianglong Power Industry Co.Ltd(600769) (8.77%), Jiangsu Jiuwu Hi-Tech Co.Ltd(300631) (7.97%) rose ahead Beijing Geoenviron Engineering & Technology Inc(603588) (- 6.67%), Bgt Group Co.Ltd(300774) (- 6.88%), Kingland Technology Co.Ltd(000711) (- 7.56%) decreased significantly.
