\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 86 Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) )
Core view
Revenue grew rapidly, gross profit margin declined slightly, and operating cash flow hit a record high. The company released its 2021 annual report. The annual revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 21.09/3.51 billion and yoy + 25.2% / + 22.7% respectively. Among them, the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 were 5.16/790 billion, yoy + 9.0% / - 7.9%. Under the release of real estate risks and the rise of raw material costs, the growth rate of revenue and profit of the company decreased significantly. In 2021, the company's gross profit margin was 31.8%, yoy-1.9pct, and the rise in the price of raw materials for keel and waterproof business squeezed the gross profit margin; The cost rate is 13.1%, yoy + 0.1pct. The operating cash flow was 3.83 billion yuan, yoy + 110.8%, a record high, mainly due to the decrease in non operating expenses paid in cash.
The market share of gypsum board increased, the gross profit margin rose against the trend, and the market dominance was verified again. In 2021, gypsum board revenue was 13.78 billion, yoy + 25.9%, gross profit margin was 37.3%, yoy + 1.8pct; The sales volume was 2.38 billion square meters, yoy + 18.0%. The rapid growth of sales volume is mainly due to the high increase of real estate completion in 2021, the low base number of epidemic in 2020 and 3.5% The market share continued to increase. Referring to the Building Materials Federation, the national gypsum board production and sales volume was 3.51 billion square meters in 2021, with the company's market share of 67.7%, yoy + 7.6pct, and the market dominance was further strengthened. It is estimated that the average price of gypsum board in 2021 will be 5.8 yuan, yoy + 0.4 yuan, the average cost per unit will be 3.6 yuan and yoy + 0.1 yuan. In the environment of rising costs, the company's single flat gross profit increased by 0.3 yuan / flat against the trend, mainly due to 1.5% The proportion of medium and high-end brands has increased, and the cost transfer power of 2 company has a strong voice in the industry. Driven by the strengthening of environmental protection governance and the increase of fuel prices, the production costs of small and medium-sized enterprises continue to grow, and the living space is squeezed. As the industry leader, the company's market dominance is expected to gradually increase.
Keel and waterproof increased steadily, and raw materials squeezed profits upward. Yoy-2pc billion, with gross profit margin of 2.86 billion. Revenue maintained rapid growth, and its proportion in revenue increased from 8.0% in 2017 to 13.1% in 2021. The supporting sales strategy continued to be promoted. However, at present, the company's voice in the keel market is still weak, raw materials are rising, and the company's gross profit margin is under pressure. The revenue of waterproof business (including engineering) is 3.77 billion, yoy + 15.0%, of which the gross profit margin of waterproof coiled material is 27.4% and yoy-9.3pct. The rise in the price of raw materials has a significant impact on the gross profit margin of waterproof of the company. The waterproof business of the company has achieved preliminary integration, but it will take time for complete integration, and the business level is still far from that of the head enterprise; The company strictly controls the risk of accounts receivable, which also makes the cash flow performance significantly better than other peers in the environment of tightening real estate funds. In 2022, we may still face the pressure of declining real estate demand, rising costs and intense competition.
The optimization of corporate governance has released positive signals, and the overseas + one and two wings strategy has been solidly promoted. Since the end of 2021, the management of the company has changed, which has released a positive signal to the market, and the governance structure is expected to be further optimized. Longpai, Taishan and mengpai gypsum board businesses will strengthen coordination and further enhance the overall competitiveness of the company's gypsum board. The company actively expands overseas markets, distributes production capacity in Tanzania and other countries, and its operation and management advantages are expected to be replicated overseas. The waterproof business has been preliminarily integrated, and a joint venture with Keshun and Karen has been established to strengthen the advantages of centralized procurement. Beixin coating holds 100% equity of longpai and 49% equity of Lighthouse coating. The coating business has initially taken shape, and substantive progress has been made in the strategy of one body and two wings.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We predict that the company's EPS in 20222024 will be 2.40/2.78/3.06 yuan / share (originally predicted that the EPS in 20222023 will be 2.71/3.17 yuan / share). At present, the adjusted average valuation of comparable companies is 15x PE. We recognize that the company will be given 15x PE in 2022, with the corresponding target price of 35.92 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The growth rate of real estate completion fell, the release of new production capacity was less than expected, the waterproof integration was less than expected, and the price of raw materials increased significantly
