\u3000\u30 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) 19 Chengdu Guibao Science & Technology Co.Ltd(300019) )
Core view
Continue to increase the market share against the trend, and the performance will reach a new high in 2021. The company released the annual report of 2021: in 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 2.556 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.74%, a net profit of 268 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.00%, and a basic earnings per share of 0.70 yuan. That is, in the single quarter of 2021q4, the company realized an operating revenue of 874 million yuan (year-on-year + 50.49%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 106 million yuan (year-on-year + 58.90%). Under the background of adverse conditions caused by the sharp rise of upstream raw materials, the company has maintained a high growth rate against the trend by actively and comprehensively improving the market share of products and alleviating the impact of the continuous rise of raw material prices on profits. At present, the company's construction glue products continue to make rapid progress, and the industrial glue starts the girder, and the projects under construction are progressing smoothly. In the future, the company's total capacity of silicone sealant is expected to exceed 200000 tons / year, and will become the largest and world-class silicone sealant manufacturer in China.
Silicone prices are under pressure in the medium and long term, which directly benefits the company's raw material procurement, and the gross profit margin of main products is expected to continue to repair. In the first three quarters of 2021, the price of silicone showed a sharp rise trend, while the price of 2021q4 fell sharply: the overall increase of the whole year was 18.17%, and the maximum amplitude of the whole year was 191.05%. From Q1 to Q3 in 2021, the price of upstream silicone rose sharply year-on-year, and the price adjustment of the company's products lagged behind, resulting in pressure on the company's gross profit margin in the first three quarters of 2021. In 2021q4, with the short-term relief of production restriction and the gradual release of production capacity, the price of silicone has declined rapidly. Under the expectation of new production capacity, we believe that the medium and long-term silicone price will continue to be under pressure, which will continue to benefit the company's raw material procurement, and the gross profit margin of the company's main products is expected to be significantly repaired. We are optimistic that the company will continue to build a strong leading position in the silicone sealant industry.
Create a product layout of "construction + industry + photovoltaic + lithium battery" materials, and steadily promote the construction of silicon carbon cathode project. Taking advantage of its silicon material industry, the company has actively arranged carbon silicon cathode materials and opened a new situation focusing on the development of new energy and lithium battery materials. At present, the company's photovoltaic glue has fully entered Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic modules, BIPV and other fields; Silane coupling agent has been successfully used as a key assistant in the production of EVA film. In addition, the company has set up a wholly-owned subsidiary and plans to build 10000 tons of silicon carbon cathode materials for lithium batteries, 40000 tons of special adhesive production base and lithium battery material R & D center. At present, the silicon carbon cathode materials produced by the company have passed the evaluation of several battery manufacturers and achieved small batch supply. We expect to gradually realize industrialized production within 1-2 years. The company is optimistic about the high-end production chain, and will continue to optimize the type of products and maintain the high added value of the industry.
Risk warning: price fluctuation of raw materials; Downstream demand is lower than expected; The progress of projects under construction is less than expected.
Investment suggestion: maintain the "overweight" rating. We are optimistic that with the continuous expansion of production scale and the continuous optimization of technology, the company's cost advantage and leading position will be further highlighted. Under the background of gross profit margin restoration and capacity expansion of main products, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 351 / 481 / 657 million from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 31.2% / 36.8% / 36.6%; Diluted EPS = 0.90/1.23/1.68 yuan, corresponding to the current stock price, corresponding to PE = 19.9/14.5/10.6x. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
