\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Guohua Network Security Technology Co.Ltd(000004) 2 Shenzhen Centralcon Investment Holding Co.Ltd(000042) 0)
Event overview
Event 1: on the evening of March 20, 2022, the company issued a non-public offering plan (Revised Draft), which plans to raise no more than 1.2 billion yuan for the construction of 12000 ton carbon fiber composite project and repayment of bank loans.
Event 2: on the evening of March 20, 2022, The company mentioned in its reply to the relevant announcement of the CSRC “Within three years from the date of issuance of this commitment, chemical fiber group will take relevant regulatory measures, including injecting the controlling interest of Guoxing carbon fiber into the listed company, to further protect the interests of listed companies and minority shareholders. At the same time, chemical fiber group and Guoxing carbon fiber promise that before the implementation of the above relevant measures, Guoxing carbon fiber will not invest in the field of carbon fiber composites and small tow carbon fiber. If the above fields are involved If losses are caused to the listed company, the chemical fiber group or Guoxing carbon fiber will fully compensate the listed company or return the above income to the listed company. “
Analysis and judgment:
Steady progress has been made in fixed value-added projects to build an integrated carbon fiber industrial chain.
According to the relevant data of Sao, China’s total demand for carbon fiber in 2020 was 48900 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 29%, of which the import volume was 30500 tons, accounting for 62% of the total demand. Specifically, the number of wind power applications is 20000 tons, accounting for about 40.90%, and the consumption of sports and leisure products is 14600 tons, accounting for about 29.9%. According to Sao’s prediction, the “14th five year plan” period coincides with the outbreak of carbon fiber composites. In the future, the demand for carbon fiber composites will be further released in the fields of wind power, automobile and carbon composite materials. The global demand for carbon fiber composite materials will increase from 164000 tons in 2020 to 306000 tons in 2025, and this demand increase mainly comes from the growth of wind power field. The company’s raised investment project mainly uses pultrusion process to produce carbon fiber pultruded sectors, and the downstream is used in the field of wind power and gas cylinders. The company expects that the project will bring the company revenue and profit increment of 1.540 billion yuan and 142 million yuan respectively.
Promise to inject relevant carbon fiber enterprises to stabilize the company’s future growth expectations.
At present, Guoxing carbon fiber is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Jihua Group. By the end of September 2021, the net assets of Guoxing carbon fiber are – 137 million yuan, and the net profit of Guoxing carbon fiber in Q3 in 2021 is 35 million yuan. At present, the carbon fiber industry continues to boom. We expect that the net assets of Guoxing carbon fiber will return to positive value in 2022. According to the “464th five year plan” development strategy of Jilin City, by the end of the “14th five year plan”, the production capacity of 330000 tons of carbon fiber precursor, 100000 tons of carbon fiber and 65000 tons of carbon fiber composite will be formed. The company’s commitment to solve horizontal competition means that Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) will be the only platform for “carbon fiber + composite” in Jilin City in the future, which greatly stabilizes the company’s growth expectation in the carbon fiber sector in the future.
Investment advice
We maintain the previous profit forecast unchanged. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 3.238/37.68/5.895 billion respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 0.42/1.46/459 million respectively, and the EPS will be RMB 0.02/0.07/0.23 respectively, which corresponds to 222 / 64 / 20 times of the closing price PE on March 25, 2022. In the future, the company’s viscose filament and staple fiber will maintain steady growth. Carbon fiber carbon filament and carbon fiber composite are expected to contribute to the company from 2022. It is expected to enter a high-speed development period during the 14th Five Year Plan period. At the same time, the company promises to inject Guoxing carbon fiber into listed companies in the future. We are optimistic about the future growth of the company and maintain the “overweight” rating.
Risk tips
The localization progress of carbon fiber industry chain is less than expected, and the injection progress of Guoxing carbon fiber is less than expected.
