\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 088 China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) )
Event: the company issued the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 335.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 50.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.3%; Net profit after deduction of non return to parent company was 50.04 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 31.1%. The basic earnings per share was 2.53 yuan / share, a year-on-year increase of 28.4%.
In 2021, Q4 achieved an operating revenue of 102.27 billion yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 52.3% year-on-year and 14.9% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.52 billion yuan, an increase of 69.7% year-on-year and a decrease of 35.4% month on month; Main reasons: the company’s costs and expenses have increased due to the rise in the purchase price of purchased coal and the rise in ship rental fees; If the identification and approval documents of preferential income tax policies have not been obtained, the annual enterprise income tax is calculated at the tax rate of 25%, and the income tax is increased in the fourth quarter; Provision for impairment loss; The company confirmed that it should account for more losses of associated companies.
The dividend ratio is as high as 100% and the dividend yield is 9.9%. In order to positively repay shareholders, the company plans to pay a final dividend of 2.54 yuan / share in 2021, which is significantly higher than the previously specified 50% (lower limit) to 100.4%. Based on the closing price on March 25, the dividend rate is as high as 9.9%. Considering the stable profitability of the company’s integrated operation of “coal electrification Road, port and waterway”, sufficient cash flow and capital expenditure expected to decline gradually, high dividends in the future are still worth looking forward to.
Coal: the benchmark price of the long-term association has increased significantly, and the price center has increased steadily. In 2021, the company’s coal sector achieved a revenue of 292.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54%; The gross profit was 80.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.6%; The gross profit margin was 27.6%, up 0.1pct year-on-year. Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 92.89 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of 68.7% and a month on month increase of 21.6%; The gross profit was 30.55 billion yuan, an increase of 82.7% year-on-year and 4.9% month on month. In terms of production and marketing, the annual output / sales volume of commercial coal of the company was 310 / 480 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3% / 8%; Among them, the output / sales volume of commercial coal in Q4 was 0.8/120 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 10.5% / – 1.8% and a month on month increase of 15.3% / – 0.1%. In terms of price, the company sold 588 yuan per ton of coal in the whole year, up 43.4% year-on-year; Among them, the annual long-term association selling price is 456 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 20%; The spot price was 599 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 43.3%. Among them, the selling price of Q4 single quarter ton coal reached 770 yuan / ton, up 71.8% year-on-year and 21.7% month on month. In terms of cost, the annual cost per ton of coal produced by the company was 155.5 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, mainly due to the early provision of safety production fees, the increase of employees’ wages, the cancellation of social security relief, etc. In terms of sales, the company’s sales are dominated by the long-term association, and the annual long-term association coal is strictly implemented in accordance with the pricing mechanism of “benchmark price + floating price” stipulated by the national development and Reform Commission. Benefiting from the increase of the benchmark price of the long-term association (from 535 to 675), the price center of the company is expected to move up.
Electricity: the installed capacity increases, the electricity price rises, and the performance expects both volume and price to rise. In 2021, the revenue of the power sector reached 64.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.6%; The gross profit was 4.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.95%; This was mainly due to the rise of coal purchase price, which led to the increase of coal-fired cost (the power sales cost of coal-fired power plants increased by 57.4% year-on-year), and the gross profit margin was 7.7%, down 15.3pct year-on-year. In terms of production and marketing, the annual power generation / sales of the company was 166.5/156.1 billion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 22.1% / 22.3%, and the average utilization hours were 4749 hours (year-on-year + 7.9%). In terms of selling price, the company’s comprehensive selling price for the whole year was 348 yuan / MWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. In 2021, the company increased the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation by 5620 MW, an increase of 18%; By the end of 2021, the total capacity of generator assemblies under construction, approved but not yet under construction by the company was 8800 MW, with full growth potential. In the future, in order to protect people’s livelihood and alleviate the pressure brought by high coal prices, many places began to slightly adjust the electricity price mechanism and moderately liberalize the upward limit of electricity price. The power sector of the company is expected to realize the simultaneous rise of volume and price.
Transportation & coal chemical industry: shipping volume and price rise together, and the gross profit per ton of coal chemical industry rises. In terms of transportation, in order to integrate shipping resources and improve the scale and intensification of shipping business, the company negotiated with COSCO Shipping bulk transportation to increase the capital of Guoneng hiseas, the holding subsidiary of the company, in the same proportion according to the shareholding ratio. The company increased the capital at the price of 43.83% equity of Tianjin Yuanhua plus some cash, and COSCO Shipping bulk transportation increased the capital at the price of 56.17% equity of Tianjin Yuanhua. Tianjin yuanhuacheng has been included in the scope of the company’s consolidated statements since August 21, resulting in the increase of shipping freight volume Shipping turnover increased year-on-year; Superimposed on the shortage of transport capacity in the shipping market and the rise of freight unit price in 2021, the volume and price of the company’s shipping business increased at the same time. The company’s gross profit of railway transportation in the whole year was 19.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15%; The gross profit of port transportation was 3.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5%; Shipping realized a gross profit of 1.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 208.8%. In terms of coal chemical industry, due to the planned maintenance of the coal to olefin unit of Baotou coal chemical industry for more than one month, the annual sales of polyethylene and polypropylene of the company were 333000 tons and 316000 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 6.8% and – 4.7% respectively. Due to the year-on-year increase of olefin sales price, the gross profit of the coal chemical industry sector of the company was 1.22 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 33.8%; The gross profit margin was 20.8%, a year-on-year increase 9pct.
Investment advice. From 2022 to 2024, the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 64.72 billion yuan, 73.81 billion yuan and 77.04 billion yuan, with EPS of 3.26 yuan, 3.71 yuan and 3.88 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 8.3, 7.3 and 7.0 respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the coal price has fallen precipitously, the benchmark price of the long-term association has been lowered, the on grid electricity price has been lowered, and the company has a safety accident.
