\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 808 China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) )
Events
Annual report of the company in 2021: the operating revenue was 29.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.84%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 313 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 88.4%, mainly due to the impairment of 2.02 billion yuan due to the utilization rate and operation price of some large equipment of the company have not returned to the normal level. In addition, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 9.32 billion yuan in a single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 24.1%, significantly improving month on month, and reaching the highest level since the epidemic in 2020.
The business of oil technology sector has reached a record high, which is the ballast for the company’s performance
The company’s oilfield technical service sector achieved a revenue of 15.1 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, accounting for more than half of the first time to 51.7%; The gross profit margin reached 29.3%, which was the best level in history. The company’s technology driven and cost leading strategy was effective. On the other hand, the company steadily promoted the research and development of key core technologies and guaranteed the demand for increasing reserves and production, and took the overseas market as the first breakthrough. The “Xuanji” rotary steering and logging while drilling system independently developed by the company has successfully entered the overseas market; The self-developed high temperature and high pressure anti-corrosion cement slurry system solves the technical problem of cementing in salt gypsum layer of an oil field in the Middle East; Obtain the drilling and completion fluid service contract in Southeast Asia, and start and complete the land cementing project in Southeast Asia; Independently developed logging equipment Muil, opened the Middle East market, entered the American land drilling and completion fluid service market and obtained service orders; Explore the African market and lock in the future workload. With the recovery of the global oil service industry, the global upstream exploration and development capital expenditure is expected to continue to increase. It is expected that the company’s oil technology business will maintain a good growth trend. With the improvement of profitability, it will become the ballast of the company’s performance.
The utilization rate of the platform is now turning upward, and the daily fee is expected to reverse at the bottom
The company’s drilling service sector achieved a revenue of 8.78 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 23.4%, and the gross profit margin was 0.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 25.7pct. On the one hand, due to the settlement income of $188 million paid by equinor in the same period of last year, on the other hand, due to the impact of oil price fluctuations and epidemic situation, the drilling operation volume decreased and the daily rate also decreased. According to ihsmarkit, the global upstream exploration and development capital expenditure in 2021 was US $336.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.80%; It is predicted that the global exploration and development investment will continue to grow from US $43.8 billion / barrel to US $43.8 billion / barrel in the upper reaches of the whole year, with an average annual growth of US $3.8 billion / barrel in 2022. With the high oil price driving up the expectation of capital expenditure, the company’s annual utilization rate of jack up / semi submersible drilling platforms in 2021 was 75.8% / 59.3% respectively, 4.0pct/0.2pct higher than that in the first half of 2021; The average daily cost of drilling platform was US $82000, a year-on-year decrease of 13.7%. With the improvement of the utilization rate of the platform, the daily rate is expected to reverse from the bottom, and the company’s drilling platform has performance flexibility.
Profit forecast
It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 35.2 billion yuan, 42.3 billion yuan and 49.6 billion yuan respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 3.68 billion yuan, 5.17 billion yuan and 6.78 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE of the current stock price is 18, 13 and 10 times respectively. Maintain a “recommended” rating.
Risk tips
Risk of sharp fluctuations in international oil prices; The prosperity recovery of overseas oil service is less than expected; CNOOC’s capital expenditure growth was less than expected; Risks of overseas business affected by political and economic environment, etc.
