\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 088 China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) )
Core view
Event: the company released the performance report for 2021, realizing an operating revenue of 335216 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 50.269 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.34%, the basic earnings per share was 2.53 yuan, and the operating net cash flow was 94.575 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%.
Coal production and sales increased slightly year-on-year, and the sales unit price increased, thickening the profit level. The company’s coal sector achieved 307 million tons of commercial coal in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3%; The sales volume of coal reached 480 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 8%, including 310 million tons of self-produced coal, with a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, and 170 million tons of purchased coal, with a year-on-year increase of 12.8%. The average unit price per ton of coal sold by the company was 588 yuan / ton, an increase of 43.4% year-on-year. In 2021, the proportion of medium and long-term contracts of the company reached 88.7%, of which the proportion of annual long-term agreement and monthly long-term agreement were 43.1% and 40.7% respectively, and the corresponding average sales price was 456 / 765 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 20.0% and 64.5%. In 2021, the overall coal price rose sharply, and the sales unit price increased significantly, which became the main reason for the high increase of the company’s net profit. The gross profit rate per ton of coal reached 27.6%, up 1.6 percentage points. The reason why the growth rate of gross profit per ton of coal was lower than that of unit price was mainly due to the rise of material and labor costs.
The volume and price of power business increased simultaneously, and the gross profit margin decreased by 15.3% affected by the price of raw materials. In the power business segment of the company, in 2021, the operating revenue was 64.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.6%, the power generation was 166.5 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 22%, the total power sales reached 156.1 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 22%, the average power sales unit price was 0.348 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, the gross profit margin was 7.7%, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.3 percentage points. Mainly because the company’s coal-fired power generation accounted for 97.2% of the company’s total power generation. Affected by the rise in the price of coal, the main raw material of coal-fired power generation, the gross profit margin of the power generation business sector fell sharply, but the overall sector remained profitable, and the integrated operation advantage of coal and electricity was obvious.
The railway transportation sector maintained a stable high gross profit margin. The railway sector achieved an operating revenue of 40.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, and the gross profit margin was 47.1%, down 1.8 percentage points. The unit transportation cost of railway was 0.068 yuan / ton kilometer, an increase of 0.015 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28%. The railway transportation business controls high-quality assets and maintains a high gross profit margin as a whole.
The high proportion of dividends exceeding 100% shows the long-term investment value: the company announced the dividend in 2021 and distributed the final dividend of 2021 to all shareholders of RMB 25.4 (tax included) for every 10 shares. Calculated according to the share capital on December 31, 2021, the total cash dividend to be distributed is about RMB 50.466 billion (tax included), accounting for 100.4% of the net profit attributable to shareholders in 2021. Calculated according to the closing price of the company on March 25 of RMB 27.18, the dividend rate reaches 9.35%, Large proportion of dividend returns to shareholders, good profitability and stable cash inflow, optimistic about the long-term investment value of the company.
Profit forecast and investment rating: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 52.62/60.2/67.71 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 10.26/8.97/7.9 times. The first coverage gives the company a buy rating.
Risk tip: macroeconomic growth is less than expected; Coal prices fell sharply; The production and sales of coal are less than expected and the progress of projects under construction is slow.
