\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 585 Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) )
The performance decreased slightly and the dividend scale reached a record high. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 167953 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.73%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 33.267 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.38%, and an EPS of 6.28 yuan / share. The company plans to pay 2.38 yuan (including tax) in 10, with a cash dividend scale of 12.612 billion yuan, an increase of 12.26%, a record high, with a dividend rate of 37.91%, second only to 2017, and the current dividend rate is about 6.7%. Due to the impact of many adverse factors such as normalized epidemic prevention and control, rising prices of bulk raw and fuel materials and weakening market demand, the company’s product sales fell slightly, resulting in a decline in the annual performance.
Insufficient demand affects sales volume, and the profit level is high and stable. The company’s annual net sales volume of cement clinker was 409 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.76%, which was mainly affected by the lack of downstream demand in the second half of the year. Among them, the sales volume of self-produced products was 304 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.53%, and the sales volume of 21h2 decreased by 30.43%; The annual sales volume of trade business was 105 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.00%. We estimate that the company’s revenue per ton of cement clinker products / cost per ton / gross profit per ton are 361 / 203 / 157 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 35.5 / 32.5 / 3.0 yuan / ton respectively. The increase in cost is mainly caused by the sharp rise in raw coal price, and the overall profit level remains high and stable. The proportion of expenses in the main business income during the period was 5.73%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.08pct, of which the proportion of sales expenses decreased by 0.07pct to 2.30%, and the proportion of management / R & D / finance expenses increased by 0.58/0.45/0.12pct to 3.43% / 0.89% / – 0.89% respectively, mainly due to the year-on-year increase of social security expenses for employees, the increase of investment in technology development such as energy conservation and environmental protection, and the year-on-year increase of exchange losses.
Promote project construction and M & A, and start the development of new energy industry. During the reporting period, the company actively promoted the construction and M & A of cement clinker projects abroad, and strengthened the extension and expansion of aggregate and concrete business in the upstream and downstream industrial chain. The annual new clinker / cement / aggregate / commercial concrete production capacity was 7.2 million tons / 14.25 million tons / 7.5 million tons / 10.5 million m3 respectively. At the same time, we completed the equity acquisition of conch new energy, added 19 photovoltaic power stations and 3 energy storage power stations, and the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation reached 200MW at the end of the period. The company’s annual capital expenditure was about 16.02 billion yuan, an increase of 47.2%. It is planned to spend 23.5 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 46.7%.
Risk warning: the increase of supply exceeds expectations; The implementation of the project is not as expected; The cost rise exceeded expectations.
Investment suggestion: the national cement leader, with low valuation, maintains the “buy” rating
The company is a national leading cement enterprise with outstanding competitive advantages in all aspects. In 2022, under the background of moderately advanced infrastructure investment, cement demand is expected to be supported to some extent. In the future, while continuing to consolidate the promotion of cement business, the company will accelerate the extension of industrial chain, promote the development of new energy industry and create a new industrial growth pole. It is expected that the company’s EPS will be 6.46/6.69/6.86 yuan / share from 2022 to 24, corresponding to PE of 5.7/5.5/5.4x. At present, the valuation is low and the “buy” rating will be maintained.
