Near the end of the first quarter, facing the upward cost of materials such as wood pulp, energy and chemical industry and the influence of many factors, the leading paper enterprises have launched a new round of price increase.
Recently, top scale paper enterprises, including Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) , Jinguang paper (China) and Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) have successively announced that they will increase the price by another 300 yuan / ton on the basis of the current implementation price from April 1. For example, Quzhou Wuzhou Special Paper Co.Ltd(605007) announced that the price of all food cardboard will increase by 500 yuan / ton from April 1.
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) analysis points out that the profit improvement of the paper sector is expected, the pulp price rises, and the price increase letters of the paper mills are intensively released, and the comprehensive profit margin is expected to improve month on month; Judging from the price increase range and rhythm of specialty paper, its sustainability is expected to be better under the boom of mass consumer demand in the downstream.
The first quarter is coming to an end, and the prosperity of the paper industry is gradually clear. Zhuo Chuang information industry analysis pointed out that cultural paper began to usher in the traditional peak season in the late first quarter, the price increases have been implemented, and the transaction has improved significantly; Industrial packaging paper is relatively stable as a whole. However, the second quarter is the traditional off-season. In the face of high costs and pressure on the gross profit of main paper varieties, the “rebound market” expected by the market is not an easy thing.
pulp market is strong and the pattern continues
The reason for the new round of price increase of paper enterprises is still the continuous rise of the cost of raw materials such as wood pulp.
Chang Junting, an analyst of Zhuo Chuang information industry, introduced to the reporter of Securities Daily that the spot market price of imported wood pulp remained high in March. As a domestic wood pulp to improve the competitiveness of the paper industry, although most of it was used for their own use, the export price also rose due to the influence of external market, spot and their own supply and demand.
“In terms of news, there are constant news, including the suspension of work in Finland, the logistics problems in Canada and the shortage of shipping. The linkage between future and present is enhanced, which drives the upward rhythm of domestic wood pulp prices.” Chang Junting said.
For the support at the demand level, especially for the recent round after round of multi paper price increases, Chang Junting said that the launch of new production capacity of cultural paper and white cardboard at the end of March and the release of the price increase letter of double offset paper in April are conducive to the boost of market confidence.
According to the analysis of Zhuo Chuang information, there is no obvious fluctuation in the supply and demand of domestic wood pulp in the short term. From the perspective of correlation, the price of domestic wood pulp and imported wood pulp remains highly positively correlated. However, due to the majority of domestic pulp mills for their own use and Limited export, the price adjustment range and speed are slower than that of imported wood pulp. Therefore, in the short term, the price of domestic pulp will fluctuate at a high level, and it is expected that the strong pattern will continue.
For the continuous rise of the pulp market, Shanghai Shenyin Wanguo Securities Research Institute pointed out that the continuous rise in the price of wood pulp promotes the rise in the price of pulp and paper, and the subdivided track paper with good demand, such as decorative base paper and cultural paper, realizes the price rise, and the profit is expected to be maintained or improved.
With the advent of the peak season for paper enterprises, the reporter noticed that the price of paper was raised obviously. Taking Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) and Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) as examples, the two companies have raised prices twice in succession in March, with a cumulative increase of 600 yuan / ton in the month. This time, it was announced that it would raise another 300 yuan / ton in April.
In an interview with Securities Daily, insiders of paper enterprises said that at the supply level, with the gradual elimination of the impact of imported cultural paper on the Chinese market since this year, the supply and demand pattern of China’s cultural paper market is slowly improving, and cultural paper enterprises are gradually coming out of the trough. At the same time, from March to may, it is the peak bidding season for teaching auxiliary materials in China. The downstream demand for cultural paper, especially double offset paper, has improved significantly, so it also gives major paper enterprises the confidence to raise prices.
Zhuo Chuang information analysis believes that with the recovery of downstream demand, dealers’ acceptance of paper price has also increased. Under the condition of no significant fluctuation in pulp price, it is expected that the market price of follow-up cultural paper will still have room to rise from 200 yuan to 300 yuan.
it is not easy to expect “rebound market”
As the first quarter of this year draws to a close, the performance of the paper sector has gradually become clear this year, and the prediction of the next industry is mixed. On the whole, it is not easy to say that the performance “rebounds”.
For the cultural paper industry, as mentioned earlier, the cultural paper ushered in the peak season in the first quarter of this year, and the transaction was significantly improved, but the boom declined significantly year-on-year in the first quarter of last year. However, it should be pointed out that in the first quarter of last year, influenced by multiple favorable factors outside China, cultural paper enterprises were in the rising channel. Under the background at that time, many head paper enterprises, including Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) , Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) and Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) all achieved the best or better performance in the same period in history.
Zhuo Chuang information analysis believes that at present, with the recovery of paper prices, the profitability of cultural paper enterprises has recovered. However, due to the high fluctuation of pulp prices, it is almost impossible for paper enterprises to recover to the profitability of the same period last year.
For the next trend, Shanghai Shenyin Wanguo Securities Research Institute believes that in the cost upward period, the head paper enterprises with the advantages of pulp and paper integration, including Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) , Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) , Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) and Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) are expected to fully benefit from the cost advantages of self-produced (or group) wood pulp and improve the profit per ton. From the perspective of demand, Zhuo Chuang information analysis believes that the orders of teaching aids and teaching materials will continue to be released in the second quarter, but the demand pressure will gradually increase with the end of the orders around the end of May.
Look at the packaging paper industry. In recent days, several paper giants including nine dragons, Liwen and Shanying have successively announced shutdown and production reduction. Driven by this, the overall level of paper price has increased slightly recently.
“The second quarter is the off-season of the packaging paper industry, with a high probability of price decline. The paper mills are more willing to further raise prices, but they mainly see the mouth support.” Zhuo Chuang information analyst Kong Xiangfen said.
Li Li, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang information, combined with the import and export data of corrugated paper from January to February this year, told the Securities Daily that the cumulative import volume of corrugated paper in China in the first two months of this year was about 361800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 27.77%; The cumulative export volume was about 6300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.01%. “At present, China’s corrugated paper market is relatively depressed, and the paper price is in a period of shock adjustment. Therefore, the risk of foreign imported paper flowing into China increases. When China’s profit space is narrowed, it is expected that there will be little room for import growth from March to April.” Li Li said.
For the special paper with eye-catching performance in the near future, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) believes that the price raising and landing ability of special paperboard is strong, and the valuation of the sector is very cost-effective. Recently, the prices of high prosperity special paper such as food card, grasin paper and decorative base paper have also been raised successively. Compared with bulk paper, special paper has double barriers at the production and sales end, and the implementation of price increase is expected to be better under the direct selling mode.
