\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 050 Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) )
In 2021, the revenue returned to high growth, optimistic about the long-term growth of new energy heat management business, and maintained the "buy" rating
In 2021, the company realized a revenue of 16.021 billion yuan (+ 32.30%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.684 billion yuan (+ 15.18%). In 2021q4, the revenue was 4.301 billion yuan (+ 22.30%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 391 million yuan (+ 5.67%). The auto zero business drives the high growth of revenue in 2021, and is optimistic about the long-term growth under the capacity expansion. In addition, it is optimistic about the decline of raw material prices and the profit restoration driven by scale effect. We keep the profit forecast for 20222023 unchanged and add the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be RMB 2.252/29.03/3.584 billion, corresponding to EPS of RMB 0.63/0.81/1.00, and the current share price corresponding to PE of 26.6/20.7/16.7 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
The auto parts business continued to expand in volume, and the refrigeration parts business maintained steady growth
In terms of business, in 2021, the company's auto parts business and refrigeration parts business achieved revenue of 4.802 billion yuan / 11.218 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 94.51% / + 16.36%, of which the new energy heat management business achieved sales revenue of 4.004 billion yuan. From a regional perspective, the company achieved revenue of 8.112 billion yuan / 7.908 billion yuan in China / foreign markets in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of + 38.33% / 26.63% respectively. The high growth in the Chinese market is mainly due to the rapid volume of new energy business. In 2021, the sales of the company's auto parts business in China / foreign markets were + 48.71% / 22.77% year-on-year respectively.
The disturbance of raw materials superimposed on the change of accounting standards led to the decline of gross profit margin, and the scale effect of cost side gradually appeared
Affected by the rising price of raw materials and the change of accounting standards, the gross profit margin in 2021 was 25.68% (-4.13pcts), excluding the impact of accounting standards, the gross profit margin was -2.16pcts year-on-year. In terms of expenses, the ratio of sales / management / R & D / financial expenses in 2021 was 2.8% / 5.47% / 4.69% / 0.53% respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of -2.18pcts / - 0.84pcts / + 0.41pcts / - 0.54pcts respectively. The scale effect of the cost side gradually appeared, and the net interest rate under the comprehensive influence was 10.51% (- 1.56pcts).
Capacity expansion provides a driving force for growth, and technology R & D deepens core competitiveness
In 2021, the company continued to increase the technological transformation of new energy parts and new production capacity projects. With the steady progress of high-efficiency, energy-saving and commercial refrigeration valve projects, it is expected that the steam and zero business will continue to increase in volume and the refrigeration business will maintain steady growth. The company also focuses on product renewal iteration and new product development, which is expected to obtain new growth points while consolidating traditional advantages.
Risk warning: the market competition of air conditioning valve is intensifying; The sales volume of new energy is less than expected; Rising prices of raw materials, etc.
