\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 882 Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, it realized an operating revenue of RMB 4.478 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 57.31%, a net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 154 million, a year-on-year increase of + 160.60%, and a deduction of non net profit of RMB 122 million, a year-on-year increase of + 173.72%. The operating income of 21q4 was 1.334 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 37.45%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 11 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 72.68%, and the non net profit deducted was – 21 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 507.43%. Excluding the impact of equity incentive expenses, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 277 million yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of + 364.49%.
Brief comment on the past 21 years: cheese revenue has maintained high growth, investment promotion at room temperature has made rapid progress, and the capacity utilization rate has declined. In terms of products, the cheese revenue in 21 years was 3.335 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 60.77%, a gross profit margin of 48.51%, a year-on-year increase of + 3.14 PCT, the liquid milk revenue of 430 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 4%, a gross profit margin of 13.73%, a year-on-year increase of -419 PCT, and the trade revenue of 704 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 96.97%, a gross profit margin of 3.9%, and a year-on-. The performance of trade income exceeded market expectations, mainly due to the empowerment of relevant businesses brought by Mengniu. Large quantities of cheese sticks with high gross profit continued, and the upgrading of product structure drove the overall gross profit margin of the company to increase from 35.91% in 2020 to 38.21% in 2021. In terms of channels, from the perspective of the number of dealers, as of December 31, 2001, there were 5363 dealers, an increase of 3606 and a decrease of 869 from January to December of 21. Compared with December 31 of 20 years, the number of dealers increased by 2737 in 21 years. Cheese revenue maintained a high growth, but in terms of capacity utilization, since the company launched cheese sticks in 18 years, the capacity utilization rate was 95% + in 19-20 years and fell to 71% in 21 years. The penetration space of large single products of cheese sticks remains to be seen. From the perspective of extended time dimension, the cheese track, the player’s continuous innovation ability may be the core winner in the future.
Two growth points in 22 years: normal temperature cheese stick + cheese slice. The normal temperature cheese stick was put into operation in 21q4, and the production capacity continued to climb. It entered the mass production stage in 22 years. It is expected to contribute considerable net increment, and the channel dividend of large single product of cheese stick will continue. New products of cheese slices, high calcium cheese slices and fat reducing cheese slices have been launched, and Sun Li’s advertising films have been issued. It is expected to expand production to match the growth of demand side, and is optimistic about the revenue growth in 22 years.
Profit forecast: it is estimated that the company’s revenue in 22-24 years will be 6.683/88.23/10.748 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 4.76/8.65/1.256 billion yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the production capacity is less than expected, the promotion of large single products is less than expected, and food safety risks.
