\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 484 Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co.Ltd(002484) )
The company released its annual report for 2021: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 3.55 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 34.71%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 435 million yuan (a year-on-year increase of 16.66%); Among them, in the single quarter of 2021q4, the company realized a revenue of 967 million yuan (a year-on-year increase of 9.24% and a month on month increase of 5.37%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 109 million yuan (a year-on-year decrease of 28.65% and a month on month decrease of 11.21%). Affected by the cost side, the company is under pressure in the short term or performance, but the long-term development trend of new energy and electric vehicles remains unchanged. The company’s aluminum electrolytic capacitor, film capacitor, super capacitor and other production expansion projects are expanding smoothly in the emerging downstream. We are optimistic about the long-term development potential of the company’s multi line layout.
The cost pressure affected the company’s performance in the fourth quarter: the rise in the price of raw materials, the superposition of switching on and power restriction, and the substantial increase in the price of electricity for foil, which brought huge cost pressure to the company’s production and operation and squeezed the profit space. The company’s annual overall gross profit margin was 25.93%, down 1.94 percentage points from last year. Quarterly, the overall gross profit margin from 2021q1 to Q4 is 27.54%, 27.92%, 26.25% and 22.44% respectively. The gross profit margin of 2021q4 decreases significantly. Although the price of thermal coal has dropped somewhat in 2022 and the pressure on power consumption has eased, due to the influence of geopolitics and tight supply and demand, the price of electrolytic aluminum in China fluctuates greatly and remains at a high position in the near future, and the cost pressure of the company may continue in the short term.
Optimization of aluminum electrolytic capacitor products and customer structure: 1) the downstream demand for new energy and industrial control has grown strongly. Seven of the top 10 photovoltaic inverter manufacturers in the world have become company users, and the consumption of this segment market has reached 15% of the operating revenue. 2) The stock market share increased steadily, and the top 10 users ranked by sales revenue accounted for 35.2% of the total revenue. 3) The technical performance, industrialization and other indicators of solid-state laminated polymer capacitor (MLPC) products have reached the expected target, with an average shipment of 6.6 million in 2021; The technology of solid-liquid hybrid capacitor is constantly improved.
Thin film capacitors are progressing smoothly: the great development of new energy, electric vehicles and other industries continues to push up the strong demand for thin film capacitors. The subsidiary YOUPU electronics has steadily promoted cost control and quality control; The specifications and yield of self-produced metallized film of xinjianghai power electronics have increased, and the output has increased by 50%. The newly-built production line of box thin film capacitors for distributed photovoltaic has achieved mass production, and the preliminary work of large-scale application has been smoothly promoted. Haimei electronic thin film capacitor for electric vehicle drive has won the bid of several automobile brands and electric driver manufacturers.
Super capacitor failed to meet expectations: it consolidated and improved its application in smart meters, rail transit, power grid and other mature markets. In 2021, the annual income of Jianghai energy storage failed to meet expectations due to the investment of wind power and some new applications (projects). However, it has been tested in the fields of port machinery, mining equipment, power grid frequency modulation, oil to electricity, electric buses and so on.
Investment suggestion: considering that the pressure on the company’s cost side may continue, the company is expected to achieve operating revenue of 4.241 billion yuan, 5.242 billion yuan and 6.416 billion yuan respectively from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 19.46%, 23.62% and 22.38%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 510 million yuan, 671 million yuan and 868 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 17.23%, 31.62% and 29.36%. At present (March 24, 2022), it corresponds to PE of 38.93, 29.58 and 22.86, Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the risk of rising raw material prices, the risk of repeated epidemics, and the risk that R & D projects are less than expected
