\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 461 Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021, and achieved a revenue of 4.538 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 6.79%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 611 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.36%. Among them, 2021q4 achieved a revenue of 820 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.44%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 17 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 74.13%.
The high-end transformation of the main beer industry has been continuously promoted, and the channel mode has been actively explored. In the past 21 years, the company has achieved a beer sales volume of 1276300 tons (+ 6.41%) and a ton price of 355548 yuan / ton (+ 0.36%). In terms of products, the revenue of high-grade / middle-grade / mass products was 2.513/15.10/268 billion yuan (+ 15.78% / + 0.43% / – 30.85%), and the proportion of high-grade products was 58.56% (+ 5.12pcts). The transformation of high-end products continued to advance. The company’s core products continued to be sold in large quantities, and the product structure gradually improved to the middle and high-end. The sales volume of pure draft beer / can products accounted for 44.94% / 32.19% (+ 4.07pcts / + 0.83pct); 97 Chunsheng’s high-end core products sold 156800 tons (+ 103.18%), and the structural upgrading performed brilliantly. By channel, the revenue of ordinary / supermarkets / night show / e-commerce accounted for 95.40% / 1.76% / 2.06% / 0.77%, with a year-on-year increase of 5.31% / 0.87% / 18.79% / 34.97%. The company explored the “new store” model around new consumer demand, and the night show / e-commerce channel increased significantly. The company radiates new vitality with “beer +” and opens snow Castle experience store and fine brewing tasting meeting. At the same time, we will develop the beer culture industry to achieve sales growth and brand empowerment.
Under the pressure of cost, the profit is under pressure, and the cost reduction and efficiency increase are expected to be improved. The company achieved a gross profit margin of 44.95% (- 5.24pcts) in 21 years, mainly due to the increase of 16.76% / 24.09% / 51.96% in the cost of beer manufacturing / packaging materials / rental catering services. The rates of sales / management / Finance / R & D expenses were 15.49% / 7.82% / – 4.80% / 3.27% respectively, with a year-on-year change of -2.00 / – 0.62 / – 0.1 / + 0.04pcts and a net interest rate of 13.83% (+ 0.05pcts). The company’s Q4 profit fell significantly. We believe that it is mainly due to the rise in the price of raw materials and materials, superimposed with the repeated impact of the epidemic, and the profit in the fourth quarter was under pressure. Looking forward to 22 years, although there is pressure on raw materials and packaging materials, there is still room for cost optimization. In addition, the upgrading of product structure and structural transformation are advancing steadily, and the profitability is expected to improve.
The beer industry has stepped into the cycle of consumption structural upgrading, and the high-end potential energy of the company based on advantageous regions has been continuously released. Following the development trend of high-end beer and based on the brand strategy of “3 + n” (Xuebao, Chunsheng and Zhujiang + characteristics), the company fully covers the personalized consumption needs of high-end, medium and high-end, mass and small groups, intensively cultivates the advantageous areas of South China, launches special Chunsheng, coffee Shitao, new British IPA and other new products, improves the proportion of high-end products, makes efforts to catering channel terminals, and grasp the important scenes of ready to drink to promote structural upgrading. In addition, the company promotes Baijiu project, explores new development of beer business and Baijiu business, and achieves sales revenue of nearly 30 million yuan in 21. The development and exploration of multiple business modules of the company has driven the vigorous development of the main beer industry, and accelerated the growth of the company’s scale around the resilient consumer market and quality consumer demand.
Profit forecast: due to the pressure of raw material cost and other factors, the profit forecast is updated. It is expected that the company’s revenue will be adjusted from 4.92/5.25 billion yuan to 4.92/5.18 billion yuan from 2022 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 8.34% / 5.32%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was adjusted from 810 / 940 million yuan to 700 / 820 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14.20% / 17.52%, and EPS of 0.32/0.37 yuan respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials is rising, the competition in the high-end market is intensifying, the epidemic situation is repeated, and the promotion of new products is not as expected.
