\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 234 Shandong Minhe Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(002234) )
Event:
Shandong Minhe Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(002234) released the annual report of 2021: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.775 billion yuan, an increase of 5.56% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 476097 million yuan, a decrease of 28.60% year-on-year.
Key investment points:
The revenue increased by 5.6% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 28.6% year-on-year. The company's main products are commercial substitute broiler seedlings, and its subsidiary Minhe food slaughtering and processing commercial substitute broilers, providing broiler segmentation products. In 2021, the market of commercial generation chicken seedlings of white feather broiler showed a trend of first high and then low. In the first half of the year, the market of chicken seedlings opened high and went high, and has maintained a good level; In the second half of the year, the chicken seedling market fell all the way. Although there was a rebound in August and September, the range was not large. Throughout the year, the production capacity of white feather chicken industry was relatively sufficient, and the meat price was suppressed by the sufficient supply of pork. The market price of white feather chicken terminal chicken remained at a low level throughout the year. The prices of breeding raw materials such as corn and soybean meal continued to run at a high level, the breeding cost continued to rise, and the prosperity of white feather chicken industry was low.
The sales of commodity substitute chicken seedlings reached 310 million feathers, and the income of chicken seedlings reached 940 million yuan. In 2021, the company sold 310 million commercial meat chicken seedlings, a year-on-year decrease of 50 million. The main reason is that the downstream commercial breeding has poor profits and weak willingness to fill the column. Due to the rise of breeding costs, the cost and unit price of chicken seedlings increased at the same time, and the performance decreased year-on-year. The income of chicken seedlings was 940 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. At present, the company's production capacity of commercial generation chicks exceeds 300 million. Through the construction project of non-public fund-raising, the production capacity of commercial generation chicks will be increased by 100 million / year, which can further drive the growth of the company's performance. In addition, in 2021, the company's chicken breeding elimination income was 62.57 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%.
The sales volume of chicken products was 69000 tons, an increase of 13 million tons year-on-year. The subsidiary Minhe food sold broiler split products and realized an operating revenue of 670 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%. The unit price of chicken products was 9648 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 122 yuan / ton, mainly due to the overall decline in meat prices due to the impact of pork prices. The company is actively expanding to the deep processing of chicken products in the downstream of the industry. Through the construction project of non-public fund-raising, the total production capacity of meat products will be increased by 60000 tons. The profits of deep processing links such as chicken products are relatively stable and will continue to increase relatively stable earnings for the company.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the inflection point of pig price is approaching, the white feather chicken industry is expected to gradually step out of the low climate cycle, the production capacity of the company's chicken seedlings and meat products will continue to expand, ready for the upward cycle, the profitability of meat products deep processing is stable, and the integration of industrial chain is continuously promoted. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 58 / 529 / 573 million respectively, EPS will be RMB 0.17/1.52/1.64/share respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 96.23/10.52/9.71 times respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the price of feed raw materials continues to rise; Covid-19 epidemic risk of poor transportation; Risks to upstream chicken seedling suppliers; Risks of downstream chicken seedling dealers; The company's performance is less than expected risk.
