\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 439 Venustech Group Inc(002439) )
1. Introduction to the mode of urban safety operation center
Venustech Group Inc(002439) the rapid expansion of the national safety operation system is becoming an important driving force for the company’s revenue growth. From the perspective of development process, the development of the company’s urban safety operation center has experienced three stages, and now it is dominated by the mode of “third-party independent safety operation”.
2. The mode of urban safety operation center is effective and mature
From the demand side, the three driving forces of events, technology and policy jointly promote the rapid growth of the demand for the third-party independent security operation center model. From the supply side, the advantages of the “third-party independent security operation center” are as follows: 1) it can drive the sales of its own security products and services; 2) Alleviate the shortage of talents and achieve the effect of reducing costs and increasing efficiency; 3) Improve customer stickiness and revenue sustainability.
In the smart city scenario, the company’s urban safety operation center can realize rapid expansion. On the one hand, we believe that prefecture level cities are the best business expansion units, and carry out unified design and planning in the urban dimension, which is in line with the pace of smart city construction; On the other hand, with the city level expansion as the engine, driven by horizontal project expansion and vertical customer unit price improvement, the business income ceiling of the urban safety operation center can be improved through three-dimensional growth, so as to provide stable and sustainable cash flow to the company in the future.
3. The company’s urban safety operation center has significant advantages
We believe that the company’s advantages in the urban safety operation center are mainly reflected in three aspects: 1) the first mover advantage is obvious, and the number of urban expansion far exceeds that of competitors; 2) Strong basic technology as support and heavy investment to expand technical advantages; 3) Experience advantages bring bargaining power and help finance operate healthily.
4. Business growth calculation of urban safety operation center
Under the dynamic growth path, we expect that the company’s urban safety operation center business is expected to contribute RMB 1.26/18.1/23.8/2.9 billion to the company from 2022 to 2025; In the steady state, we expect that the company’s urban safety operation center business can steadily contribute about 4.1 billion yuan of revenue every year, accounting for about 26% of the corresponding market; The winning projects, the number of winning projects, the project construction cycle and the growth rate of safety operation service business are the core tracking indicators of the urban safety operation center, which have a great impact on the income scale.
5. Valuation analysis and investment suggestions
We adjusted the previous profit forecast and estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 4482 / 5527 / 6737 million (the original forecast was RMB 4438 / 5548 / 6824 million), and the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 886 / 1105 / 1391 million (the original forecast was RMB 885 / 1109 / 1384 million). We valued the company with PE method, and gave the company a PE valuation of 35 times of the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years, with a corresponding valuation of 31.24 billion yuan, 28 / 22 times of PE in 2022 / 2023 and a corresponding target price of 33.46 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: 1) there are subjective assumptions and judgments in the data estimation in the report; 2) The landing of urban safety operation center is not as expected; 3) Short term fluctuations in the company’s performance; 4) Industry competition intensifies; 5) Major changes in sector policies, etc
