\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 799 Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) )
Performance review
On March 25, the company released its annual report for 2021, which realized a revenue of 7.9 billion yuan in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 950 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18%. Q4’s revenue in a single quarter was 2.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 210 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 53%.
Business analysis
Q4 is greatly affected by the lack of core by customers such as Volkswagen. 21q4 revenue decreased by 13% year-on-year, mainly due to the decline of FAW Volkswagen sales. 21q4 sales volume of major customers: FAW Volkswagen (revenue accounting for about 40%) decreased by 23%, Yifeng (revenue accounting for about 15%) increased by 12%, Hongqi, Dongfeng Nissan and Guangfeng (revenue accounting for about 6-10%) increased by 32% / decreased by 30% / increased by 10% respectively.
Raw materials, labor and fixed assets transfer affect the gross profit margin 3PCT. In 21 years, the lamp revenue was 7.05 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3%, and the gross profit margin decreased by 3.1pct, including 1.0pct affected by the rise of raw materials, 0.9pct affected by the rise of labor costs (labor costs increased by 27% year-on-year), and 1.3pct affected by the increase of manufacturing expenses (manufacturing expenses increased by 22% year-on-year due to the conversion of projects under construction to fixed assets). R & D expenses increased by 26% year-on-year, sales expenses increased by 36% year-on-year, and the overall cost rate increased from 7.7% in 20 years to 9.2%, an increase of 1.5pct.
22q1 profit improved significantly month on month. The company disclosed that from January to February of 22 years, the revenue increased by 25% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent increased by 5% year-on-year. The rapid growth of revenue is mainly due to the restorative production of customers such as FAW Volkswagen, Hongqi and GAC Toyota and the large amount of new projects of Japanese and independent brands. Assuming that Q1 continues the growth rate (the company’s Changzhou factory is actually affected by the epidemic, and the actual situation of Q1 may be lower than this growth rate), the corresponding net interest rate is 12.5%, which is significantly improved compared with 9.9% and 9.4% of 21q3 and 21q4.
The speed of new orders is accelerated, benefiting from the continuous upgrading of ADB, DLP and other intelligent lamps. The company has undertaken new project orders of about 13.5 billion yuan in 21 years, including ADB headlamp, DLP headlamp and lamp controller. From the beginning of 2022 to the middle of March, it will undertake new orders of 4 billion yuan. The company has achieved mass production of ADB headlights and OLED taillights. In February 22, the company cooperated with Huawei to lead the development of intelligent lamp industry
Profit adjustment and investment suggestions
According to the lack of core in the industry and the company’s new orders, we fine tune the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-23 years to 1.22 billion yuan and 1.55 billion yuan, and predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 24 years will be 1.88 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS will be 4.2/5.4/6.6 yuan and the corresponding PE will be 34 / 27 / 22 times respectively, giving a “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Risk of rising raw materials; The risk that the mitigation time of chip shortage is lower than expected; The risk that the sales volume of downstream customers is lower than expected; Overseas factory orders were lower than expected.
