In the recent shock consolidation market, "the darkest hour is about to pass" and "fear should not occupy the heart" have become hot words for fund companies to communicate with holders. It is worth noting that from the position measurement data, it also experienced a "dark moment", and many fund managers chose to increase their positions against the trend.
According to the calculation data of Xingzheng strategy, from the perspective of stock fund positions, the growth rate of stock investment proportion of various open-end funds has slowed down significantly since the beginning of the year, but there has been a trend of increasing positions recently. Especially since March 8, the fund as a whole has shown a trend of "big drop and big buy".
fund managers add positions against the trend
On March 24, Huabao Fund issued a letter to the holder - the dark hour is about to pass, waiting for the "Rose of time". Bo Yu, manager of Wen zhonghuabao consumption upgrading fund, said that the consumption sector for one year had been adjusted last year, and the valuation was close to the central low position of historical valuation. After entering 2022, it still adjusted with the market. From the perspective of lengthening the cycle, A-Shares more reflect the long-term positive trend of China's economy. The current market fluctuation is only a small ripple under the interference of short-term sudden factors such as epidemic and geopolitics.
Coincidentally, on March 16, Ruiyuan fund also released the article "a letter to the holder: fear should not occupy the heart at this moment", which said that "we always believe that it is difficult to predict the market trend by simple linear extrapolation. The more pessimistic it is, the more confidence it should have."
So, in the face of the market that has not yet been clearly reversed, what are the fund managers going through the "darkest hour" doing?
According to the calculation data of Xingzheng strategy, from the perspective of stock fund positions, the growth rate of stock investment proportion of various open-end funds has slowed down significantly since the beginning of the year, but there has been a trend of increasing positions recently.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) believes that at present, although the market has experienced an "irrational decline" since March 8 this year, the open-end funds as a whole have shown a trend of "big drop and big buy". From March 8 to 17, the proportion of stock investment has increased by 1.39 percentage points, and the common stock type, partial stock hybrid type and flexible allocation type funds have increased by 0.45, 2.24 and 1.74 percentage points respectively. Therefore, under the background of the obvious decline of stock positions in the early stage, Recently, public funds have shown a trend of increasing positions at the bottom, which means that the subsequent outflow pressure may be relatively limited.
\u3000\u3000 "As a public fund manager, the best performance is usually the time when investors pay most attention to us, but it is often the worst time for us to invest. When an industry is rising and your performance has been rising in the past few years, you will find that such assets have either become expensive or become crowded; and when your net worth begins to retreat, this may be the most uncomfortable time for customers and fund managers , but it's also the best time to make professional investment. " A blue chip fund manager said.
At the same time, the issuance of new funds has also improved marginally. Since March, as of March 18, the issuance shares of partial stock funds have reached 33.1 billion, which has warmed up month on month.
where does the confidence of the market come from
Yinhua Fund Research Department believes that looking forward to the trend of the A-share market in the second quarter and beyond, the steady growth of policy may continue to increase, the cost performance of equity will improve, and the margin of risk appetite will be flat or higher in the second quarter. On the whole, judging the index from low to high, but it is difficult for the valuation to expand significantly, with structural opportunities. In addition, after a sharp correction, we are optimistic about the performance of the Hong Kong stock market in the second quarter.
Jiang Qian, deputy director of equity investment of Oriental fund, also said that the market probability in 2022 will be a process of gradual shock and upward, but there will be some fluctuations due to the impact of overseas policies and changes in China's fundamentals. On the whole, there should be no great risk at the index level.
"Why is there no overall downward risk in the market? Because the government began to guard against credit risk very early and made some adjustments in fiscal policy, industrial policy and monetary policy to support the economy. Therefore, in this neutral market, the more important thing for investment is to find some structural opportunities and obtain time value through stocks with relatively determined performance growth and reasonable valuation." Jiang Qian said.
which directions are still favored
Which industries are promising for institutions? New energy vehicles, photovoltaic, military and other directions are still favored by many fund managers.
Jiang Qian said that from the beginning of 2022 to the Spring Festival, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and other industries have experienced significant adjustments. In fact, by continuously tracking these two industries, we can find that their fundamentals have not changed significantly. The adjustment of stock price is mainly due to the pressure brought by the macro policy environment in China and overseas on the overvalued growth sector, as well as the phased style changes caused by the expectation of accelerated profit growth in some steady growth directions. After the early adjustment, the new energy vehicles and photovoltaic sectors have cleared most of the short-term fundamental risks and the disturbing factors of pessimism. From the perspective of the long-term development space of the industry, they do have the cost performance of the layout.
Harvest Fund Yao Zhipeng team is firmly optimistic about the industry prospect of new energy vehicles. Yao Zhipeng and his team believe that the probability of new energy vehicles is at the starting point of a new round of boom upward cycle. The survey also found that the rise in lithium carbonate price has a relatively small impact on terminal demand, and the rise in price is unsustainable. Subdivided into the level of competition pattern, the sector trend is facing differentiation. In 2021, a large number of third and fourth tier varieties showed an increase that did not match their long-term competitive position, while the share price increase of truly competitive leading enterprises is still lower than the performance increase of that year, and the implied opportunities are significantly greater than the risks, which is expected to be corrected.
Yinhua Fund has made a specific interpretation of the field of "new light army":
Electric vehicles: the certainty bottoms out, the prosperity remains high, and the current valuation is low after the drastic adjustment of the stock price. In terms of lithium price, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other departments recently held a lithium industry symposium, which is expected to stabilize the market expectation of lithium price; In terms of power battery, after the lithium price is expected to be stable, we are optimistic about the rebound trend of power battery; In terms of materials, we are optimistic about the best links in the direction and pattern of new technologies, such as nanotube, structural parts, electrolyte, ternary integration, high voltage, silicon cathode and other subdivided industries.
Wind power: in the short term, concerns about the impact of rising raw material prices on profits and shipments still suppress the sector. Since 2022, land wind / sea wind bidding has continued to exceed expectations, reflecting the continuous improvement of the industry prosperity. It is expected that in 2022, with the accelerated upgrading of large megawatts of wind power, the accelerated construction of large base projects and the overall price reduction of wind turbines, the installed capacity of onshore wind power is expected to rebound rapidly and the yield is expected to be significantly repaired.
Photovoltaic: photovoltaic is expected to be not light in the off-season. China's installed capacity in January was 7.4gw higher than expected, overseas rush to install continued to boost demand, and the operating rate of China's photovoltaic industry chain continued to rise. At present, the silicon material is still constrained, and there is no major inflection point in the short term. It is expected that the inflection point of capacity release will be at the end of the first quarter and the end of the third quarter respectively, which should be paid close attention at that time.
Defense and military industry: last Friday, due to the information of the notice on the inclusion of market products in the list of electronic components, the military industry sector fell more, especially the electronic components sector. Looking forward to 2022, the demand for aerospace is still strong. With the expansion of production by the enterprise itself and downstream customers, it is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth, and is optimistic about the fourth generation aircraft, engine and missile industry chain.
