On the whole, we expect that the performance of each segment of the electronics industry will be differentiated in the first quarter of 2022. Among them, IGBT, equipment, MCU, simulation, OEM and other segments under the semiconductor segment will remain relatively prosperous.
On the whole, we expect that the performance of each segment of the electronics industry will be differentiated in the first quarter of 2022. Among them, IGBT, equipment, MCU, simulation, OEM and other segments under the semiconductor segment will remain relatively prosperous. Looking ahead, we suggest focusing on 1) innovation increment Blue Ocean: highly deterministic pure increment downstream product tracks, such as automotive electronics and aiot, are expected to bring new growth momentum to all sectors of the electronics industry; 2) Clear segmentation of performance: consumer electronics focus on fruit chain and folding screen; Semiconductor pays attention to equipment localization, high-quality design companies, as well as subdivisions with high deterministic growth logic such as IGBT, MCU and simulation.
Semiconductor sector: IGBT, MCU, analog and OEM manufacturing still maintain a high boom, and the substitution of domestic equipment continues to grow. In the context of downstream demand differentiation, business segmentation and domestic substitution have become the two main logical lines of the semiconductor sector. Driven by the demand for electric vehicles and photovoltaic, IGBT continues to maintain a high business boom, and local manufacturers usher in opportunities for accelerated share improvement, such as Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) (it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 will be + 90 ~ 110% in the same period), Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) (it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 will be + 45% ~ 70% in the same period in the same period); At present, the supply and demand of MCU, analog chip and other sub categories are still tight, and relevant companies are expected to maintain strong performance, such as Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) (it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 is + 83% ~ 116% year-on-year), Sino Wealth Electronic Ltd(300327) (it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 is + 30% ~ 60% year-on-year), Shanghai Awinic Technology Co.Ltd(688798) (it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 is + 36% ~ 66% year-on-year). Manufacturing companies continue to benefit from capacity expansion and ASP rise, such as Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) (estimated Q1 revenue + 66% ~ 69% year-on-year), Huahong semiconductor (estimated Q1 revenue + 84 ~ 97% year-on-year). At the same time, domestic substitution continues, equipment companies have full orders on hand and revenue has been recognized, which is expected to continue to maintain high growth rate of performance, such as Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) (estimated Q1 revenue + 50 ~ 70% year-on-year), Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) (estimated Q1 revenue + 50% ~ 70% year-on-year), Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) (estimated Q1 net profit attributable to parent + 460% ~ 570% year-on-year).
Consumer electronics: Q1 is the low point of the year, and Q2 is expected to be gradually repaired. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading manufacturers with the ability to expand categories. 22q1 mobile phone market is under pressure. At the same time, the repeated global epidemic has also affected some consumer electronics production ends to varying degrees. In addition, since the beginning of the year, the prices of raw materials such as bulk commodities have increased or weakened the profitability of middle-end links. It is estimated that the performance of some companies in the consumer electronics industry chain in 22q1 is under pressure, and the leading companies benefit from their strong ability to expand categories, and the performance is relatively good, such as Goertek Inc(002241) (the operating performance of Q1 is expected to be + 30 ~ 40% year-on-year), Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) (the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 to be + 25 ~ 30% year-on-year). Looking forward to the future, we believe that 2022q1 is the low point of the mobile phone market in the year. Since the end of February, MediaTek Tianji 9000 / 8100 new machine, apple 5g se new machine and other products have been released and shipped successively. It is expected that the market shipment will improve quarter by quarter, driving the repair of the performance of relevant companies. Among them, the apple chain is stronger than Andrews; At the same time, consumer electronics leaders have accelerated to enter the innovative blue ocean direction such as aiot and automotive electronics to obtain new growth momentum. It is suggested to pay attention to leading manufacturers with the ability to expand categories.
Electronic components sector: focus on structural opportunities. 1) PCB: focus on marginal changes in demand, especially structural opportunities brought by automotive electronics and servers; 2) Passive components: consumer demand is under pressure, but the field of thin-film capacitors benefits from the relatively bright demand for electric vehicles and photovoltaic; 3) Panel: in the short term, the bottom of large-scale prices will be established and wait for the trend to reverse; In the medium and long term, with the reshaping of the industry structure, the double leaders are expected to steadily release profits. We are still firmly optimistic. We suggest to continue to pay attention to Boe Technology Group Co.Ltd(000725) , TCL technology; 4) Security:
The government's security demand is under pressure in the short term. However, the Chinese government has set a steady growth target, and the subsequent leading manufacturers are expected to usher in performance and valuation repair; 5) Led: the prosperity of traditional LED is maintained as a whole, and mini led opens the prospect space.
Risk factors: the global macro-economic downturn risk, the global epidemic continues, the downstream demand is less than expected, the innovation is less than expected, the international industrial environment changes and trade friction aggravate the risk, exchange rate fluctuations, etc.
Investment strategy. In terms of semiconductors, the core focus is on companies with high certainty of year-on-year performance growth: "focusing on assets" depends on equipment localization, "neglecting assets" depends on customer structure, and subdivided categories with high certainty Growth Logic (IGBT, MCU, analog IC). In terms of consumer electronics, the global epidemic has repeatedly led to pressure on demand and production at the same time. It is suggested to pay attention to leading manufacturers with the ability to expand categories. In other electronic parts and components sectors, leaders in various subdivided fields are expected to further integrate their shares and have medium and long-term layout value. It is suggested to bargain hunting layout and pay attention to leading enterprises.
