Investment chain: the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of real estate investment decreased, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment increased. In February 22, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed assets increased to 12.20%, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of real estate investment decreased to 3.70%, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of manufacturing investment increased to 20.90%, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment increased to - 8.78%; Since March 22 (up to 22 / 03 / 24), the prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, gold and silver have fluctuated upward, while the prices of lead and tin have fluctuated downward; The price of thermal coal decreased to 738 yuan / ton, and the price of coking coal increased; Rising steel prices; The price of light soda ash increased, while the price of heavy soda ash decreased; The average price of cement increased; In February, the sales volume of large passenger cars, medium-sized passenger cars and light passenger cars increased year-on-year.
Consumption chain: the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of real estate sales decreased, and the year-on-year growth rate of automobile sales increased in the current month. In February 22, the nominal year-on-year growth rate of social consumption in the current month increased to 6.70%, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of housing sales area decreased to - 9.56%; The year-on-year growth rate of automobile sales in the current month increased to 19.42%. In October 21, the year-on-year growth rate of air conditioning sales increased in the same month, the year-on-year growth rate of refrigerator sales increased in the same month, and the year-on-year growth rate of washing machine sales increased in the same month.
In January 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of tourism revenue in Hainan rose to 21.96%. The price of antibiotics was flat in February 22; Since March, the prices of vitamin A and vitamin B1 have decreased, the prices of vitamin E have increased, and the prices of VC are flat.
Export chain: the growth rate of exports to the United States, ASEAN, EU and Japan decreased. In February 22, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , toys, furniture, refined oil, steel, ships, plastic products and automobile retail export decreased, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of coke export increased; The year-on-year growth rate of exports to the United States, the European Union, Japan and Southeast Asia decreased in the same month; The OECD index fell to 100.01 and the US index fell to 100.01.
Price chain: since March 22, oil prices have risen and pig prices have fallen. WTI has risen to US $114.93/barrel since March 22; Qinhuangdao coal prices rose. PVC: since March, the futures price has risen to 9105 yuan / ton and the spot price has risen to 8988 yuan / ton; MDI: since March 22, the price of pure MDI has dropped to 23200 yuan / ton and the price of aggregate MDI has dropped to 18600 yuan / ton; In March, the price of light soda ash increased compared with the same period last month, and the price of heavy soda ash increased compared with the same period last month. Since March, the price of white granulated sugar has increased and the price of cotton has decreased; Since March, the price of pork has dropped to 13.23 yuan / kg, and the breeding profit of users has decreased; Since March, the value of Baijiu has declined compared with February of 22, and the valuation of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has declined, and the valuation of all A shares has declined. In February, the new credit fell to 1230 billion yuan; In January, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of life insurance premium income decreased to - 5.77%; In February, the appreciation rate of RMB against the US dollar was 0.19%.
Risk tip: the economic growth fell faster than expected, and the policy effect did not meet expectations.
