A week's events
China: the demand side policy of real estate in many places has been relaxed, and the implementation of retention tax rebate has been strengthened. In March, the loan interest rates of the first and second homes in 103 key cities decreased by 13 and 15 basis points respectively compared with the previous month. It is expected that the policy will continue to relax and the credit environment will continue to remain relatively loose, which is expected to drive the recovery of real estate sales, but the epidemic may drag down the real estate market to a certain extent; On the 21st, the national standing committee decided to implement the policy arrangement of large-scale value-added tax rebate, and deployed comprehensive measures to stabilize market expectations. On the 22nd, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced the announcement on Further Strengthening the implementation of the tax rebate policy for value-added tax at the end of the period. The policy support for large-scale tax rebate is expected to support the improvement of the operation of small and micro enterprises; Recently, the implementation plan of Beijing Municipality on accelerating the development of affordable rental housing was released, which clearly aims to build and raise 400000 sets (rooms) of affordable rental housing during the 14th Five Year Plan period, accounting for 40% of the total new housing supply. At present, many key cities across the country have started the pilot work of affordable rental housing REITs, which is expected to stimulate relevant social funds and broaden the sources of construction funds of affordable rental housing. The short-term suggestions on REITs policy dividends will focus on; On the 22nd, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "14th five year plan" for modern energy system, which proposed to focus on enhancing the security and stability of energy supply chain and promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of energy production and consumption mode during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and suggested paying attention to the opportunities of wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) industrial chain; On the 22nd, the CBRC issued the reply on the opening of the National Endowment Insurance Co., Ltd. the preparation of the National Endowment Insurance Co., Ltd. is conducive to the innovative development of the commercial endowment financial market through the coordination between its shareholder units. In the future, China will vigorously support the third pillar of endowment insurance, and the silver hair economy is expected to enter the fast lane of development.
Overseas: the tide of austerity is under pressure in the global bond market, and the policy positions of major developed countries are different. On March 21 local time, Powell expressed his support for raising interest rates by 50 basis points in May. At present, the prospect of the Russian Ukrainian conflict and the recovery of the supply chain is still uncertain, and the path of raising interest rates in the future is still uncertain; On the 21st, Lagarde said that Europe and the United States are not at the same stage of the economic cycle, and the eurozone is more vulnerable to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The steps taken by the central banks of the two countries need to be inconsistent. The European Central Bank will maintain policy flexibility and may not raise interest rates immediately after stopping asset purchase; Recently, the landing of the US interest rate hike has brought further downward pressure on the yen, and the recovery of Japan's economy and consumer spending may continue to be threatened in the future. On the 22nd, the Japanese parliament passed an annual budget of US $900 billion. It is expected that in the short term, Japan will continue to adopt ultra loose monetary policy against the tightening policies of major developed countries, and other policies will also support the recovery; As the Fed and other global central banks responded to soaring inflation by tightening policies, the global bond market suffered a wave of selling, and the yield of 10-year US bonds led the rise. If the Fed raises interest rates with a more hawkish attitude in the future, the yield curve may further flatten; On the 23rd, the office of the US trade representative said that it would resume the tariff exemption of 352 Chinese imports, which released a positive signal for the development of China US economic and trade relations; On the 24th, the European Central Bank released an economic bulletin, which showed that affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, economic growth and trade may be dragged down by the sharp rise in energy and commodity prices. There is little probability of tightening monetary policy in the short term. In the follow-up, we need to pay attention to inflation and economic recovery.
High frequency data: upstream: Brent crude oil and iron ore prices rose by 11.15% and 3.55% respectively on a weekly basis; Midstream: the operating rate of blast furnace rose by 21.43 percentage points this week, and the price of thermal coal decreased by 0.48% on a weekly basis; Downstream: real estate sales rebounded by 18.71% on a week-on-week basis, and auto retail fell by 29% year-on-year; Prices: the prices of vegetables and pork increased by 0.68% and 0.19% respectively on a weekly basis.
Focus next week: the initial value of commodity trade in the United States in February, the monthly rate of wholesale inventory and the monthly rate of retail inventory (Monday); Japan's February unemployment rate (Tuesday); Euro zone economic climate index and consumer confidence index in March, US ADP employment data (Wednesday); China's official PMI in March (four countries in the week); In March, Caixin manufacturing PMI, Europe, France, Germany and Italy Markit manufacturing PMI (Friday).
Risk tip: geopolitical impact exceeded expectations, overseas inflation was high, and the epidemic situation further deteriorated.
