[next week's strategy]
Review of this week's trend
The market fluctuated and adjusted this week, and the sluggish performance continued. The K-line of the Shanghai stock index was negative for five consecutive weeks. At the beginning of the week, the index failed to continue the rebound pattern since the 16th, but showed a weak shock pattern. With the repetition of the market and the gradual shrinkage of volume, it fell on Friday. Finally, the Shanghai index fell back to around 3200 points again, and other indexes weakened one after another. From the weekly K-line, the Shanghai index fell 1.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.08%, and the gem index led the decline of 2.80%. Individual stocks fell more and rose less, with coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, real estate, comprehensive, non-ferrous metals and other sectors leading the gains; Computer, power equipment, building materials, food and beverage, electronics and other sectors led the decline. This week, the net outflow of funds from the North was 12.778 billion yuan, including 6.372 billion yuan from the Shanghai stock market and 6.407 billion yuan from the Shenzhen stock market.
Study and judgment of the general trend next week: gradually shake and stabilize
Judging from the market this week:
First, the national standing committee made a strong voice to stabilize expectations, and the finance and taxation departments accelerated the implementation of policies.
Secondly, hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve appear frequently, or increase the pressure on US bond selling.
Thirdly, the LPR in March was the same as that in the previous month, and the net outflow of funds from the North decreased significantly,
Capital is stable and loose.
From the perspective of market environment, with the landing of the Fed's interest rate increase and the moderate digestion of market worries, the overall trend of overseas markets is slightly better than expected. China's national standing committee will stabilize expectations, enhance confidence, take timely measures to reverse the negative feedback effect of the market, and subsequently enter the policy implementation period. In particular, the intensive voice of the management for the capital market reflects the importance they attach to the capital market. It is expected that specific positive policies will be introduced in the future, which will help the long-term stable and healthy operation of the capital market.
Overall, the index fluctuated and adjusted this week, continuing the weak pattern. The index is still running at a low level and the trend is relatively repeated. The individual stock sectors fell more and rose less, and the market selling pressure is still released. From the market environment next week, the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates is rising, the yield of US bonds continues to strengthen, or increase the pressure of US bond selling. We still need to pay attention to the trend of overseas markets. With the recovery of market confidence after the meeting of China's Finance Committee and the fact that the national Standing Committee once again clearly supports the long-term, stable and healthy development of the capital market, it is expected that there will still be positive policies in the follow-up. Especially with the recent repeated epidemic in China, the current pressure on steady growth is still large. Considering the strong signals of steady growth released by the management for many times, the policies such as reducing reserve requirements and interest rates in the second quarter are still expected. In addition, the outflow of funds from the North has eased. This week, the central bank invested a net 50 billion yuan, which helped to stabilize the market capital. On the whole, the market technology is still in a weak pattern. However, with the release of selling pressure, the momentum of killing and falling has weakened. Considering the forward force of the follow-up stable growth policy, it is expected that the market will gradually shake and stabilize, pay attention to the change of volume energy and northward capital flow, and pay attention to the opportunities in finance, real estate, steel and iron, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, building materials, electrical equipment, TMT and other industries.
Operation suggestions
It is suggested to pay attention to finance, real estate, steel, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, building materials, electrical equipment, TMT and other industries.
Risk tips:
Escalation of trade friction; Deterioration of overseas epidemic situation; Sudden changes in the external environment.
