Industry data:
The Beijing Winter Olympics ignited the enthusiasm of ice and snow sports, and the voice of local sports brands increased again, and the exposure of sports national brands increased significantly. Anta brand, as the main sponsor of this winter Olympic Games, ranked first in terms of search popularity during the period. The average daily search index was + 7581% / 1667% year-on-year / month on month respectively. The popularity index of other national brands Philharmonic / Li Ning / peak / Tebu also increased year-on-year.
Winter Olympics enthusiasm drives ice and snow consumption. During the Spring Festival, the overall turnover of Jingdong platform skiing / ice sports commodities was + 322% / + 430% year-on-year; The turnover of tmall platform ski equipment / ice sports category was + 180% / + 300% year-on-year, and the order volume of ice and snow tourism commodities in the Spring Festival of the year of the tiger was also + 30% year-on-year.
Brand clothing: low temperature & Spring Festival promoted the demand for changing clothes, and the retail sales of clothing increased by 4.8% year-on-year. From January to February 2022, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by + 6.7% year-on-year (month on month growth rate + 5pcts), which was + 12.7% compared with the same period in 2019. Among them, the textile and clothing category increased by + 4.8% year-on-year (mom + 7.1pcts), up from + 2.13% from January to February 2019. On the online side, from January to February 2022, the sales of online physical goods of national wearing category increased by + 3.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate further narrowed by 4.4pcts month on month.
Textile manufacturing: from January to February, textile & garment exports continued to improve, and the upstream inventory level was still high. Price situation: as of March 21, 2022, the cotton 328 price index closed at 22683 yuan / ton, with a month on month / year-on-year change of – 139 / + 6670 yuan.
Supply and demand: in March, USDA predicted that China’s cotton supply in 2021 / 22 would be 7.947 million tons, the demand would be 8.617 million tons, and the supply-demand gap would be 670000 tons, unchanged compared with the expectation in February, and the stock sales ratio would be – 5.7 PCTs to 91.4%. From the perspective of the global market, the supply-demand gap in 2021 / 22 expanded by 87000 to 1018000 tons month on month, and the warehouse sales ratio was – 7.9 PCTs to 48.34%, mainly due to the sharp decline in India’s output (- 109000 tons), while the growth of global cotton consumption was less (24000 tons month on month), and the global cotton import and export volume was basically the same.
From the export data, the cumulative export amount of textile and clothing from January to February 2022 was + 8.7% year-on-year, and + 31.6% compared with the same period in 2019. By category, the export amount of textile / clothing products in February was + 11.8% / + 5.9% year-on-year respectively. Among them, clothing exports maintained growth under the influence of strong demand in the international market, rising prices, order return and other factors. With the continuous recovery of production capacity in Southeast Asia, and affected by the virus mutation in some overseas key markets and the re escalation of epidemic prevention and control, the export of epidemic prevention materials rebounded, and the export volume increased greatly from January to February.
Vietnam Textile: as of March 21, 2022, the number of new / existing confirmed cases in Vietnam on that day was 424729 / 3758631. On the whole, the epidemic situation in Vietnam has rebounded under the “coexistence with virus” policy since February. In terms of export, the export amount of Vietnam’s textiles from January to February was US $5.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 19.15%, but the growth rate narrowed month on month. Or due to the increase of the number of confirmed cases in Vietnam, the labor shortage of OEM factories affected the production and operation activities of enterprises. At the same time, superimposed with the Spring Festival holiday in February, the overall output decreased month on month, but still increased compared with the same period in 2021.
Industry views and investment suggestions: 1) brand clothing, long-term optimistic about Anta sports, China’s first sports brand with high industry prosperity, accurate differentiated positioning and perfect multi brand matrix (30x in 2022); 2) For textile and weaving, it is suggested to pay attention to peers who are seriously affected by the epidemic because their production capacity is concentrated in South Vietnam, while the company is less affected by the epidemic in Vietnam, has strong orders, and is the leading manufacturer of high-quality sports shoes with expanded production and speed Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) (25X in 2022); And the high growth civil nylon Integration Leader Zhe Jiang Taihua New Material Co.Ltd(603055) (17x in 2022) by breaking the overseas monopoly pattern due to technological breakthrough and casting high barriers through differentiated products.
Risk tip: the risk of macroeconomic slowdown; The terminal consumption demand slows down; Risk of cotton price change; The risk of third-party data distortion and the risk of untimely update of information and data used in the research report.
