The price fluctuation of oil, natural gas and coal per unit heat has strong consistency, especially oil and coal. Since August 2021, under the dual effects of supply shortage and strong demand, the global natural gas price has soared all the way, resulting in the tension of coal and oil, which has led to the record high prices of natural gas, coal and crude oil. Since February 2022, affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, global energy prices have continued to soar.
The price of coal per unit calorific value is significantly lower than that of oil and natural gas. In terms of chemical composition, coal is almost entirely composed of carbon atoms, and its energy density is lower than that of oil and gas. Theoretically, it is more suitable to be used as conversion material. Hydrogen atoms account for a larger proportion in the main components of oil and natural gas, and their unit calorific value is high, which is more suitable for use as fuel components. In the downstream use of energy, fuel consumption accounts for more than 80% and material consumption accounts for 15% – 20%. Therefore, coal has obvious cost advantages in the field of energy attributes.
The growth rate of unit heat price of oil and coal remained stable as a whole, while the growth rate of unit heat price of natural gas fluctuated significantly and more frequently. The unit heat price difference of oil and coal remains stable in a certain range as a whole, while the unit heat price difference of natural gas and coal is relatively stable before August 2021 and fluctuates sharply after August 2021. Since February 2022, affected by the rising geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine, the international energy price has soared, and the high shock of gas price and oil price has also expanded the price difference between them and coal, which has also contributed to the recent sharp rise of international coal price.
Due to the mutual substitution effect of fossil energy, the unit heat price fluctuation of oil and natural gas will have an impact on the unit heat price of coal, and the positive effect of oil price fluctuation on coal price is significantly greater than that of natural gas price fluctuation on coal price. Due to the significant price comparison advantage of coal, the rise of international oil and gas prices is expected to tilt the global energy consumption to coal. In addition, the Russian railway transportation capacity and port transit efficiency restrict the export of Russian coal to the Far East, which will help the international coal price to remain high.
Changes in international oil, natural gas and coal prices will have a positive impact on China’s coal prices. China’s resource endowment of “rich coal, poor oil and little gas” determines that international energy changes will affect China’s energy coal supply and demand structure. Through regression analysis, it is found that there is a positive correlation between international kerosene gas price and China’s coal price. When considering the effect of international energy price respectively, for each unit increase in international oil, natural gas and coal price, China’s coal price will rise by 0.3204 units, 0.0977 units and 0.4146 units respectively.
Risk factors: changes in the epidemic situation have led to a crisis like decline in the international economy; The uncertainty after the deterioration or mitigation of the situation of the Russian Ukrainian war; Interference of relevant energy policies, etc.
