Key points:
Last week, lithium battery and semiconductor materials rose, while magnetic materials and carbon fiber fell significantly. The valuation (price earnings ratio TTM) of lithium battery and semiconductor materials sector rebounded, while other sectors fell. The price earnings ratio of magnetic materials sector recently broke the long-term historical median
The lithium battery and semiconductor materials sector rose last week, with weekly increases of 5.5% and 2.64% respectively, outperforming the benchmark (Shanghai and Shenzhen 300) by 6.45 percentage points and 3.58 percentage points respectively. The magnetic materials and carbon fiber sectors fell significantly, with weekly declines of 4.64% and 3.91% respectively, 3.7 percentage points and 2.97 percentage points lower than the benchmark respectively. Last week, the valuation level (price earnings ratio TTM) of lithium battery and semiconductor sector rose by 1x and 1.3x to 55.8x and 64.1x respectively, while the valuation level (price earnings ratio TTM) of other magnetic materials, carbon fiber, photovoltaic materials and panel materials sectors fell by 0.3x, 1.6x, 1x and 0.7x to 37.4x, 48.9x, 51.1x and 20.8x respectively. In terms of historical quantile, last week, the sectors of magnetic materials, carbon fiber, lithium battery materials, photovoltaic materials, semiconductor materials and panel materials were at 40.9%, 14.4%, 60.6%, 64%, 54.9% and 0.1% of the long-term valuation level respectively.
The price of praseodymium and neodymium was adjusted downward, and the weekly average gross profit of praseodymium and neodymium oxide industry rebounded slightly. The prices of heavy rare earth dysprosium and terbium fell, and the prices of gadolinium iron and holmium ferroalloy were adjusted. Cobalt futures prices were stable, spot prices were adjusted weakly, and the prices of ferroboron, gallium and ferroniobium alloys were stable. The cost support of rare earth raw materials is weakened, and the price of sintered Nd-Fe-B magnetic material blank is temporarily stable
Praseodymium and neodymium: praseodymium and neodymium were adjusted downward last week. The national average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 1023000 yuan / ton, down 3.94% on a weekly basis; The average price of praseodymium and neodymium was 1.275 million yuan / ton, down 4.85% on a weekly basis. Last week, the market atmosphere of praseodymium and neodymium was general, the merchants' shipment was not smooth, and a small number of low-cost loose orders were constantly reported; The metal factory hesitated to purchase raw material oxide due to the slow pace of shipment; The purchasing enthusiasm of magnetic material enterprises is not high, so the transaction is reduced, and the actual transaction price is lower. On the supply side, affected by covid-19 epidemic, the production of waste enterprises in Jiangsu is limited, and some enterprises stop reducing production; In addition, due to the recent price adjustment of praseodymium and neodymium, metal factories are cautious in procurement and mainly consume inventory, so the output of praseodymium and neodymium oxide has decreased. Last week, the output of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 1460 tons, with a slight decrease of 0.48% on a weekly basis. The downstream replenishment rhythm slowed down, the upstream and downstream supply and demand game, and there were few market transactions, so the inventory increased. Last week, the inventory of praseodymium and neodymium oxide factory was 3705 tons, an increase of 2.09% on a weekly basis; The inventory of praseodymium neodymium metal factory was 2095 tons, an increase of 9.4% on a weekly basis. Last week, the average gross profit of praseodymium and neodymium oxide industry increased by 0.97% to 70500 yuan / ton, and the average gross profit of praseodymium and neodymium metal industry decreased by 35.87% to 17900 yuan / ton.
Heavy rare earth: dysprosium price was lowered last week, dysprosium oxide market sentiment was relatively weak, and the downstream magnetic material factory purchased cautiously. The actual transaction did not meet expectations. The national average price of dysprosium oxide was 2940 yuan / kg, down 3.92% on a weekly basis. There are few spot terbium in the market, the quotation of large manufacturers is strong, and there are few transactions in the downstream. The national average price of terbium oxide is 14270 yuan / kg, down 4.23% on a weekly basis; The average price of metal terbium was 18600 yuan / kg, down 2.36% on a weekly basis. Last week, the average price of gadolinium ferroalloy in China was 615000 yuan / ton, down 3.61% on a weekly basis; The average price of holmium ferroalloy in China was 1.91 million yuan / ton, down 2.05% on a weekly basis.
Other raw materials: LME cobalt futures were flat at US $82000 / ton on a week-on-week basis, and the spot price of non-ferrous cobalt in the Yangtze River fell by 0.35% to 571000 yuan / ton on a month-on-month basis. The prices of ferroboron (18%), metal gallium (99.99%) and ferroniobium (60-a) remained stable.
Sintered NdFeB: the price of NdFeB was stable last week. The national average prices of rough sintered NdFeB N35 and H35 were 297.5 yuan / kg and 365.5 yuan / kg respectively.
The price of cathode cobalt raw material fell, the price of nickel sulfate was significantly corrected, the lithium source remained high, and the price of cathode material was stable. Lithium hexafluorophosphate in the electrolyte sector continued to fall, DMC fell sharply, and the price of electrolyte also adjusted to a certain extent. The prices of cathode materials, diaphragm and copper foil remained stable
Cathode material: last Wednesday, battery grade electrolytic cobalt at the cathode raw material end fell by 1.49% to 561500 yuan / ton, and nickel sulfate fell by 10% to 49500 yuan / ton. The prices of ternary precursors ncm111, ncm523 and ncm622 were flat at 156500 yuan / ton, 157000 yuan / ton and 159000 yuan / ton respectively. Lithium source prices remained high, with battery grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices of 503000 yuan / ton and 489500 yuan / ton respectively, up 0.2% and 1.87% on a weekly basis. The prices of ternary cathode materials ncm523 and ncm622 remained stable; The price of precursor iron orthophosphate increased by 2.13% month on month to 24000 yuan / ton, and the price of lithium iron phosphate cathode was flat at 168000 yuan / ton.
Electrolyte: last Saturday, the price of lithium fluorophosphate fell 6.36% month on month to 515000 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of DMC Chinese manufacturers fell 5% to 6175 yuan / ton. The prices of lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, ternary cylinder 2.2ah and ternary cylinder 2.6ah electrolyte decreased by 4.81%, 12.59%, 2.44% and 4.12% respectively.
Negative electrode material: the prices of domestic middle-end artificial and natural graphite were 51500 yuan / ton and 38500 yuan / ton respectively, which were flat on a weekly basis.
Diaphragm: the price of mainstream diaphragm products in China remained stable last week. The diaphragm output was 195.37 million square meters, with an increase of 1.3% in the cycle to cycle ratio; The operating rate of the industry was 65.37%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.84 percentage points. The inventory of lithium battery diaphragm manufacturers was 32.55 million square meters, down 1.51% month on month.
Battery grade copper foil: last week, the market demand for lithium battery copper foil was stable, and the price remained stable, 8 μ M mainstream market price 106500111500 yuan / ton, 6 μ M the mainstream market price is 116500122500 yuan / ton.
The price of DRAM in the downstream of semiconductor materials fell, and the price of flash memory increased steadily
Last week, the semiconductor industry index in Taiwan and Philadelphia rose 1.03% and 9.16% on a week-on-week basis respectively; Dix index rose 0.34% week on week. In DRAM, the price of downstream ddr34gb (1600MHZ) fell by 0.78% to US $2.795. The prices of nandflash64gb and 32GB increased by 0.63% and were flat on a weekly basis respectively.
Investment advice
It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the opportunities of rare earth permanent magnet sector, which is expected to be significantly improved by policy driven demand growth and whose valuation has entered a historically reasonable range, as well as the pull of demand for carbon carbon matrix composites under the long-term growth prospect of photovoltaic installation after the release of short-term overvalued risk, the increase of market capacity caused by the demand for lithium battery materials in the long-term development space of electric vehicles, and the long-term trend of localization of integrated circuits, Localization progress and opportunities of semiconductor materials.
Risk tips
Price decline risk, prosperity change risk and policy change risk.
