\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 688 Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited(600688) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. In the past 21 years, the company achieved an operating revenue of 89.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 219%. Among them, the company’s Q4 single quarter revenue was 27.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.8%, a month on month increase of 10.9%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 35 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 97.2% and a month on month decrease of 95.1%.
Comments:
The overhaul led to a sharp decline in sales, and the upward boom of the industry led to a high growth in performance in 21 years: the sharp rise in oil prices in 21 years led to a significant year-on-year increase in the price of the company’s main products. The average sales prices of diesel, gasoline and aviation kerosene of the company in 21 years were 5497, 7322 and 3700 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 36%, + 23% and + 34% respectively; The average prices of p-xylene, benzene, ethylene glycol and ethylene oxide were 5643, 6141, 4651 and 6778 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 41%, + 82%, + 30% and + 11% respectively; The average prices of polyethylene, polypropylene, polyester chip, acrylic fiber and polyester fiber were 8713, 8660, 5593, 15859 and 6322 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 18%, + 12%, + 29%, + 47% and + 13% respectively. The company’s output of diesel, gasoline and aviation kerosene in 21 years was 3.39 million tons, 3.4 million tons and 1.19 million tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 14.9%, + 3.8% and + 5.3% respectively; The output of p-xylene, benzene, ethylene glycol and ethylene oxide was 500000, 310000, 150000 and 340000 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 25.1%, – 17.6%, – 36.3% and + 7.2% respectively; The output of polyethylene, polypropylene and polyester chips were 500000, 460000 and 320000 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 14.6%, – 7.5% and – 0.6% respectively. In 21 years, Q2 company implemented the largest shutdown maintenance in history, which led to the decline of Q2 single quarter operating rate and the sharp decline of sales of most of the company’s main products. The price of raw materials increased sharply due to the rise of oil price, and the gross profit margin of the company’s main business decreased year-on-year. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company’s petroleum products, intermediate petrochemical products, resins and plastics and synthetic fibers decreased by 1.2pct, 12.4pct, 12.8pct and 19.3pct respectively year-on-year.
The carbon fiber project has been steadily promoted and the carbon fiber industrial cluster has been continuously built: the carbon brazed composite material has excellent performance, good downstream demand and wide application fields. It is expected that the carbon brazed composite material will usher in a period of high-speed development during the 14th Five Year Plan period, with broad development space in the future. In the 21st year, the 1500 T / a pan based carbon fiber project of the company was successfully completed and put into operation, the hydrogen fuel cell hydrogen supply center completed trial loading, and the construction of 24000 T / a precursor, 12000 T / a 48K large tow carbon fiber project and the third circuit 220kV power incoming line project were accelerated. Among them, the 48K large tow project is expected to complete the construction of 6000 t carbon fiber capacity in phase I by the fourth quarter of 2022, and the second phase will be completed by the end of 2024, After the completion of the company, the production capacity of 35000 tons of carbon will be formed. The company will break through the composite forming technology based on large tow carbon fiber as soon as possible, comprehensively promote the construction of technical transformation and quality improvement and upgrading projects, and strive to build a world-class industrial base of green energy, fine chemicals and high-end materials.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: considering the rise of oil price and the increase of the company’s cost as a refining and chemical enterprise, we lowered the company’s profit forecast for 20222023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the company’s net profit for 20222024 will be 21.47 (down 38%) / 22.97 (down 35%) / 2467 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.20/0.21/0.23 yuan respectively. The company’s carbon fiber project is advancing steadily and has broad development space in the future. Therefore, it maintains the “overweight” rating of the company’s A-Shares and H shares.
Risk warning: there is a risk of sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices, and the downstream demand is less than expected.
