\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 529 Dalian Haosen Equipment Manufacturing Co.Ltd(688529) )
Key points
Focus on the technology leader in the field of automotive intelligent equipment production line: Dalian Haosen Equipment Manufacturing Co.Ltd(688529) is an integrated supplier providing intelligent production line and intelligent equipment. Its main business focuses on the automotive industry, covering new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles. Relying on years of accumulation in the field of traditional fuel vehicle powertrain assembly line, the company began to enter the field of new energy production line in 2015. Since then, the proportion of new energy vehicle business in revenue has increased. The proportion of new energy vehicle business in main business revenue of 2021h1 company is 21%, which is expected to continue to increase.
The downstream automobile market is vast, with technology upgrading superimposed, and there is huge space for the intelligent equipment industry: China's automobile production and sales increased year-on-year in 2021, superimposed with import substitution and export overseas factors, China's automobile intelligent equipment manufacturing industry has great potential. Market differentiation: on the one hand, there is the traditional fuel vehicle market. Fuel vehicles are still the main models, and they mainly benefit from the implementation of national emission standard 6, the upgrading of production line and the automation of commercial vehicle gearbox. It is expected that there is still a certain market space for traditional fuel vehicles; On the other hand, there is the new energy vehicle market. In the middle of 2021, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles increased by 158% year-on-year, showing a blowout development trend. The trends in four aspects are beneficial to the intelligent equipment industry of new energy vehicles. 1) flat wire motors gradually replace round wire motors; 2) Power lithium batteries are widely used; 3) Hydrogen fuel cell may usher in rapid development; 4) There is a need for a hybrid transmission.
The new energy vehicle business can be expected in the future, and the flat wire motor assembly line capacity is outstanding: the company is one of the few enterprises with the flat wire motor stator / rotor / assembly business capacity, especially in the complex stator assembly part. The company's lithium battery module / pack intelligent assembly line has complete types of coverage and high automation rate, which can cope with the fierce competition in the lithium battery industry. In addition, the company plans to acquire Xinpu automation to expand the field of lithium battery intelligent production line to the middle and later stage. The company arranged the hydrogen fuel cell intelligent production line in advance, which is expected to become a new performance growth point in the future. The company has technical advantages. Based on the experience of fuel vehicles, it takes the lead in the field of hybrid transmission.
Most of the customers are well-known manufacturers, and the new energy vehicle business orders have increased: in terms of customers, the company has a high-quality customer group, covering most of the mainstream automobile OEMs and well-known automobile power component suppliers in the automobile industry. Represented by new energy vehicles, including Tesla, Ballard, new source power, Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) etc., the customer concentration shows a downward trend and the risk is reduced. In terms of orders, there were sufficient orders and new orders, and the proportion of projects in the field of new energy vehicles increased. At the end of 2021q3, the total amount of orders on hand of the company was 2.5 billion yuan, of which the amount of projects in the field of new energy vehicles was 1 billion yuan, accounting for 41%; In 2021q1-q3, the total amount of new orders signed by the company is 860 million yuan, including 400 million yuan in the field of new energy vehicles, accounting for 46%.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the company is the leader in the field of automotive intelligent equipment production line in China, the leader of traditional fuel vehicle business and the pioneer of new energy vehicle business. Considering the company's advantages in technology, customers and orders and the industry trend of increasing demand for new energy vehicles, we expect the company's net profit from 2021 to 2023 to reach 71, 119 and 157 million yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.56, 0.93 and 1.23 yuan. The current share price corresponds to PE of 50x, 30x and 23x respectively. For the first time, give the company a "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the risk of intensified market competition; Risk of capacity bottleneck; Risks of the proposed acquisition of Xinpu automation.
