\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 053 Yunnan Energy Investment Co.Ltd(002053) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 2.259 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.49%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 252 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.71%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 214 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.86%, and the performance growth rate was in line with expectations. At the same time, the company issued the 14th five year plan, and the green power installation target is 5.13gw.
With the development of “Salt + clean energy” dual main business, the installed capacity of Fengguang is expected to grow rapidly: the company’s main business covers salt industry and clean energy, and new energy is the core development direction of the company in the future. According to the company’s announcement, by the end of 2021, the company had 7 wind farms in operation, with a total installed capacity of 0.37gw. In addition, 1.45gw of Tongquan wind power project, Jinzhong wind farm phase I project and Yongning wind farm project proposed by the company have been approved. With the addition of jianshuitangliangzi wind power project in Dayao County, the company has a total installed capacity of 1.62gw under construction / proposed, of which Tongquan wind farm project (0.35gw) has been started. Meanwhile, the company has signed four photovoltaic projects with Huaning County Government, with a total of 70000kw, realizing the “zero breakthrough” of photovoltaic projects. In the future, wind power photovoltaic will develop together and support the steady improvement of performance.
Clarify the “14th five year plan” with both certainty and growth of the new energy sector: the company released the core strategic objectives during the “14th five year plan” in its annual report, focusing on wind power and photovoltaic. On the one hand, it increased the investment in new energy installation, and on the other hand, it strengthened the resource coordination with the related businesses of the parent company Yunnan investment group. According to the company’s annual report, the company aims to reach 5.13gw of green power installed capacity by the end of 2025, including 2.59gw of wind power installed capacity and 2.54gw of photovoltaic installed capacity, with operating revenue and total profit targets of 3.2 billion yuan and 750 million yuan respectively; The company’s total revenue and total profit targets reach 4.7 billion yuan and 900 million yuan respectively. The “14th five year plan” was established, and the future development certainty of the company was further improved. The company is the only new energy operation platform under Yunnan investment group. The group and its affiliated enterprises sign the custody agreement with the listed company respectively, and entrust the corresponding power generation business entities they hold to the listed company for management. Within one year when the entrusted company’s business is in normal operation, the net profit after deduction is positive and can continue to make profits within two years, and the conditions for injection into the listed company are met, the asset injection process will be started to avoid horizontal competition.
Yunnan has significant advantages in wind resources and its profitability is expected to exceed expectations: according to the “14th five year plan” issued by Yunnan Province, Yunnan Province plans to build a new energy base with a total of 10.9gw and the new energy installed capacity of the “wind water storage / wind fire storage integration” project is 15gw, with a total of 25.9gw. Yunnan Province has unique advantages in wind resources. According to the data of the national energy administration, the average utilization hours of Yunnan Province from 2015 to 2021 were about 2649 hours, ranking the top two in China with Fujian Province over the years. According to the company’s announcement, the average utilization hours of the company’s wind power projects in operation in 2021 were 269375 hours, of which the annual utilization hours of dahailiangzi wind power project and Dazhongshan wind power project during the reporting period were 375373 hours and 343975 hours respectively, far exceeding the national average, reflecting high asset quality. According to the company’s annual report, the company’s wind power project achieved a net profit of 173 million yuan in 2021, and the rough calculation of the net profit of a single GW reached 468 million yuan. The project has significant resource advantages. With the continuous operation of local wind power projects, the profitability of the company’s wind power sector is expected to exceed expectations.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.686 billion yuan, 3.790 billion yuan and 5.189 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 18.9%, 41.1% and 36.9% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company will be 331 million yuan, 460 million yuan and 787 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 31.3%, 39.2% and 71.7% respectively; Maintain the investment rating of Buy-A, and the six-month target price is 18.0 yuan.
Risk tip: the policy promotion is less than expected, the project promotion progress is less than expected, and the sales volume of salt products is declining
