\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 461 Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) )
Event: the company issued the 2021 annual report. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 4.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.8%, and achieved a sales volume of 1.276 million tons, of which the sales volume / ton price were + 6.4% / + 0.4% year-on-year respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 610 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 7.4%; RMB 500 million was deducted from non return to parent, a year-on-year increase of – 4.6%, slightly higher than the previous performance express; In the single quarter of 2021q4, the company achieved a revenue of 820 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 20 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 74.1%.
High end continues to make efforts, and the discount affects the increase of apparent ton price. The company continued to promote the high-end product structure. The proportion of high-end / middle-grade / popular products was 58.6% / 35.2% and 6.2% respectively, of which the proportion of high-end products increased by 5.1pct year-on-year, and the product structure was significantly optimized. At the same time, according to the annual report, the sales volume of pure draft beer of the company accounted for 44.9%, and the proportion increased by 4.1pct, of which 97 pure draft beer achieved sales of 157000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 103.2%, and the overall canning rate of the company increased by 0.8pct to 32.19%, which was high-end. As a leading enterprise in terms of ton price and profitability in the beer industry, the company has continued to make efforts on the product side in recent years. During the year, the company optimized 7 products and promoted 9 new models, and actively tried to layout in multiple sub categories.
The cost pressure continues, and the gross profit margin is still under pressure. In 2021, the company’s selling price per ton of beer was + 0.4% / + 9.7% year-on-year respectively. Although Q4 company achieved the highest Q4 single quarter revenue in recent 10 years, the off-season superimposed cost pressure. At the same time, under the influence of sales means such as discount, the large volume of high-end products did not significantly contribute to the apparent gross profit margin. In 2021, the company’s overall sales gross profit margin was 45.0%, year-on-year -5.2pct, and the gross profit margin of high-end / middle-end products decreased by 4.4/8.7pct to 49.7% / 37.3% respectively, The apparent gross profit margin is still under pressure and is expected to be continuously optimized in the future. The gross profit margin of the company’s sales in the single quarter of 21q4 was 26.0%, with a year-on-year increase of – 17.7pct. On the one hand, it is expected that the off-season continues the cost pressure since Q3, on the other hand, it may be related to the collection of some logistics expenses in the sales expenses, driving the sharp decline of the apparent gross profit margin.
The improvement of operating efficiency and the thickening of income from asset disposal. In 2021, the company’s sales / management / financial expense ratio increased from – 2.0 / – 0.6 / – 0.1pct to 15.5% / 7.8% / – 4.8% year-on-year respectively, and the operating efficiency continued to improve. After the industry as a whole entered a new era of “volume reduction and price increase”, the company’s operating efficiency continued to improve to offset the impact of the decline in gross profit margin. The company’s overall deduction of non parent net profit margin increased from – 1.3pct to 11% year-on-year. During the year, the company recognized the income from the disposal of assets of 55.5 million (accounting for 1.2% of the revenue), which was significantly higher than – 3.35 million in the same period
Focus on high-end layout and gross profit margin release potential. The company’s product structure continues to be optimized to alleviate the pressure of rising costs. At the same time, it is expected to continue to improve the gross profit margin of report end products in the future. As an enterprise with a leading position in ton price and profitability in the industry, the company continues to deepen the layout of high-end products and try new models and new formats around “beer +”. In the future, it will still have a good point in improving the high-end products and profitability
Profit forecast: slightly adjust the previous profit forecast and introduce it into 2024. It is estimated that the operating revenue in 202224 will be 49.5/53.2/5.58 billion yuan (formerly 48.8/5.15 billion yuan), with a year-on-year increase of + 9.1% / 7.4% / 4.9%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 740 / 84 / 920 million yuan (formerly 700 / 780 million yuan), with a year-on-year increase of + 20.4% / 13.7% / 10.0%. At present, the corresponding PE is 23 / 20 / 18x, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk warning: the cost rise is higher than expected; The epidemic situation repeatedly affects the movable pin; Industry competition intensifies.
